New England is bracing for its biggest snowstorm in years. Here’s what the latest models are saying.
The last time it snowed a foot or more in Boston in a single day was Jan. 29, 2022, when 23.6 inches of snow came down! And the highest two-day snow total for the Boston area sits at 27.6 inches, which fell in February 2003. We won’t be seeing anything near that much snow, but there is an increasing chance for Boston to reach double-digit jackpot totals.
The latest trends agree that the core of this upcoming storm makes a tight pass to the south, sliding along Long Island and exiting over the Cape. But the snow field may be heaviest across Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, and then lighter snow extending into Northern New England.
A massive winter storm will brush through Southern New England on Sunday and last through Monday.Boston Globe
Right now, it looks like the snow will start around noon on Sunday and last through Monday. I feel like an hour or two each side of noon on Sunday is a good starting point for flakes to begin to fall across Southern New England — earlier in this window for Springfield and Hartford, later for Boston, Providence, and Portland, Maine.
High pressure should hold on long enough to our north to keep the warmer side of the storm out to sea.
Projected snowfall accumulations
It’s still a bit early to provide exact snow totals, but that will come at some point on Friday. Given just how cold the atmosphere will be and the sudden shot of moisture funneling across the frigid air, I can see a minimum of 6 to 8 inches across most of Southern New England, with many areas reaching 12 to 16 inches.
We should see multiple bands of heavy snow, given the amount of moisture pumping into this system, paired with an onshore ocean effect. Right now, I’m leaning toward Worcester to Boston and along the north shore to see jackpot totals, but that will definitely change. You can expect multiple school closings on Monday.
Snow banding usually happens when warm, moist air squeezes together with cold, dry air. The result is heavy shots of snow over a small area. We can see town-to-town snow totals vary as high as 6 inches, hence the large snow total window.
Forecast snowfall totals for New England from Sunday into Monday.Boston Globe
For folks up north, who have had more than their share of snowstorms this winter, you’ll certainly see accumulating snowfall, but most should see around 6 inches.
One concern I have is the risk for power outages, because this will be a heavy snow and windy. As hard as it is to forecast this far out, it may be gusting as much as 40 mph or higher across Southern New England. It’s best to make any preparations on Saturday or Sunday morning before the storm arrives.
The National Weather Service has issued winter storm watches for most of Southern New England from Sunday into Monday.
A winter storm watch is in effect for all of Southern New England from Sunday morning to Monday evening.Boston Globe
What the latest models are saying
You can compare both the GFS and European models below, both lining up in agreement with a closer pass toward New England than the last few days.
The European forecast model is showing a little tighter pass, but marginal. Still, the timing is consistent with Sunday into early Monday.Pivotal WeatherThe latest GFS model shows heavy snow moving into New England late this weekend.Pivotal Weather
Like we’ve seen with many of our storms this winter, I suspect that the core of this system will strengthen quickly as it hits the ocean, tapping into even more moisture from the warmer seas. I think in terms of precipitation, this intensification will support some snow banding in scattered areas of Southern New England.
Plenty of moisture will funnel into this storm from the Gulf and amplify precipitation intensity and amounts.Boston Globe
Here’s a timeline of the impending storm. Again, the timing will be refined in the coming days. The cold gripping New England on Saturday will set the stage for this snow event, as temperatures only reach the teens with bitter cold wind chills and plenty of sunshine.
• 7 a.m. to 1 p.m. — Sunday will be eventful. Skies will turn mostly cloudy to overcast during the morning with ice-cold temperatures in the single digits across Boston and most of Southern New England. Folks up north will be in the negatives during the morning. Only Maine will see any sunshine during this stretch. The only sliver of good news here is that the winds will relax a bit, taking away the wind chill.
If you need to do errands on Sunday, the morning will be the best time. Then comes the snow asthe outer edges of a monster storm push into Southern New England from the southwest during this window, likely reaching Western/Central Massachusetts and eventually Boston by the late morning or early afternoon.
• 1 p.m. to 7 p.m. — Heavy snow arrives across Southern New England while temperatures rise to the low 20s across Greater Boston to Providence, but remaining in the teens the farther west you go. Conditions will deteriorate further as this timeframe progresses.
It will be very cold on Sunday, with highs ranging in the teens to the low 20s.
• 7 p.m. into the overnight — The snow continues to fall, with heavy bands at times, across Southern New England. Even most of Northern New England will be engulfed in steady snowfall during this stretch, but the snow should be lighter. I expect a quick ramp-up in the winds on top of the already extreme cold as the storm strengthens at night and into Monday, with wind gusts building to 20 to 40 mph with a few higher gusts mixed in.
Wind gusts are likely to reach 40 mph or higher across portions of Southern New England overnight Sunday into Monday.Boston GlobeWind chills will range from the negatives to the low and mid-teens Sunday evening.Boston Globe
Forecasting wind speeds and gusts is super tricky, as it all comes down to atmospheric pressure, especially when a storm hits the ocean.
Although not likely, there may even be thunder snow in those heavy snow bands overnight.
A dry slot will cause a lull in the precipitation, likely early Monday. This occurs when drier air from about 10,000 feet is pulled into the storm. There is likely to be some additional accumulating snow during the day on Monday, but it will not be as heavy. This will be an opportunity to clean up, but final flakes may not occur until late in the afternoon or early evening.
You’ll want to bundle up when you head out to clear walkways and the cars on Monday, with temperatures likely rising to the low and mid-20s across the region.
Dave and I will be closely monitoring this storm to make sure you’re up to date with the latest forecast as this storm develops. Keep in mind that this storm isn’t even formed as of now; it actually won’t be until Friday morning, out of the Southern Plains, and then it will build while traveling over 1,500 miles to New England.
A lot could change, but it sure seems that Boston and all of Southern New England are a lock for a heavy snow event.
Globe meteorologist Dave Epstein contributed to this report.
Join Globe lead meteorologist Ken Mahan and an expert panel of top weather and climate science leaders on Jan. 29 for an in-depth discussion on New England’s changing seasons and how climate change has transformed our region’s landscape. The free event will take place at 6 p.m. at the New England Aquarium. Sign up here.
Sign up here for our daily Globe Weather Forecast that will arrive straight into your inbox bright and early each weekday morning.
Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.
