Why Gennaro picked the Patriots: Because I’m not a member of the Stidham family. I kid. But clearly, in the wake of Bo Nix’s gutting ankle injury, Denver is fighting an uphill battle, facing a sudden switch at the game’s most important position. Jarrett Stidham hasn’t thrown a pass in a real game in two years, and now he’s tasked with punching the Broncos’ ticket to the Super Bowl. It’s a daunting development, to say the least. But at first blush, Denver still holds three advantages:
- The location: Including last Saturday’s Divisional Round win over Buffalo, the Broncos own a sparkling 15-3 home record over the past two years. Denver thrives in the mile-high air, fueled by a raucous crowd that truly assists the defensive effort. Speaking of which …
- The best unit: The Broncos finished the regular season ranked first in yards per play allowed (4.5), second in total defense (278.2 ypg) and third in scoring D (18.3 ppg). Oh, and they racked up a franchise-record 68 sacks — 11 more than any other team — with 17 different players recording at least half a sack. It’s a ferocious group that can completely wreck a game, with Vance Joseph dialing up pressure from all angles. Not ideal for a Patriots offensive line that’s given up five sacks in each of the past two weeks.
- The element of surprise: In a league where coaches spend so much time preparing for games that they sleep in their offices, a severe shortage of tape on the opposing quarterback throws a sizable wrench into the cram sesh. How will Denver’s offense operate with Stidham at the helm? Well, you can only glean so much from preseason action, and this Broncos attack is worlds different from the one Stidham led in a two-start stint at the end of the 2023 season. In this spot, Sean Payton could dig deep into his bag to spice up the game plan, and that’s a frightening thought for the visiting team.
Encouraging stuff for Denver, no? Unfortunately, New England offers a viable counter in each area:
- The location: Yes, New England has struggled through the years in Denver, carrying an 0-4 postseason record all time in the Mile High City. But these particular Patriots are bona fide road warriors. With an 8-0 mark outside of Foxborough this season, New England’s the only team in the league that hasn’t lost a game in the unfriendly confines. The altitude is indeed an additional factor that’s unique to Denver, but generally speaking, these Pats don’t cower in hostile environments.
- The best unit: The Patriots just took serious exception to everyone gassing up Houston’s defense, responding with their second defensive statement in as many weeks. You have to figure Mike Vrabel’s D, which yielded the fourth-fewest points in the regular season (18.8 per game), will be similarly motivated this week. With key players like Milton Williams, Khyiris Tonga and Robert Spillane back from injury, New England’s defense might be peaking at the right time. And offensively, the Pats have been a statistical juggernaut, tying for first in yards per play (6.2) during the regular season, while ranking second in scoring (28.8 ppg) and third in total offense (379.4 ypg). Denver’s defense still feels like the top group entering this matchup, but either New England unit could win the day.
- The element of surprise: The Patriots don’t have much recent film on Stidham, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t familiar with him. Quite the contrary, in fact, as New England drafted Stidham in the fourth round back in 2019, with Josh McDaniels serving as the quarterback’s offensive coordinator for his first three NFL seasons. Something tells me McDaniels has contributed to this week’s defensive game plan.
So, now I’m back to where I started … Making cheeky (cheap) zingers at the backup quarterback’s expense? No: Thinking Denver’s at a disadvantage. But as my score prediction indicates, I do not think the Broncos are dead on arrival.
On the flip side, can C.J. Stroud rebound from a disastrous performance in Pittsburgh? Does he need to with that defense? I mean, he needs to do something. There’s a good chance he’ll be without Pro Bowl WR Nico Collins (concussion), which isn’t ideal. The pressure is on OC Nick Caley to dial up a game plan — and Stroud to execute one — that moves the ball against Mike Vrabel’s top-10 defense, which also deserves its flowers but could be without shutdown corner Christian Gonzalez (concussion). No CG would be a huge hit to that unit. He didn’t allow a single reception on five targets and 26 coverage snaps last week, per Next Gen Stats. On the plus side, Gonzalez was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice.
Ultimately, I’m taking Houston because I feel THAT good about the defense. And dating back to 2024 (including playoffs), the Texans have won 16 straight games when they score at least 20 points — a point total they’ve reached in every game since Week 12. They are 12-0 in such games this season — the only team with zero losses in that circumstance. Houston will do enough on both sides of the ball to reach the AFC Championship Game for the first time in franchise history.
