The first round of the Australian Open wraps up on Day 3 as some of the top players in the world make their 2026 Melbourne debuts. No. 15 seed Karen Khachanov squares off against young American Alex Michelsen. Elsewhere around the grounds, Day 3 welcomes Jannik Sinner vs Hugo Gaston, Ben Shelton vs Ugo Humbert, Lorenzo Musetti vs Raphael Collignon, and Taylor Fritz vs Valentin Royer. Offering their insights and predictions are Zain Mustafa, Ilemona Onekutu, and Shane Black. But who will advance?
Australian Open Men’s Day 3 Predictions
Gael Monfils vs Dane Sweeny
Zain
The last time in his career down under, Gael Monfils showed in 2025 that he is willing to save his best tennis for the Majors, despite an injury risk looming in every match he enters. Dane Sweeny has been playing decent tennis recently, but this may be one of the rare cases where the crowd supports an icon over their home player, and why not extend Monfils’ stay in Melbourne for one more match.
Prediction: Monfils in 5
Ilemona
Sweeny’s effort keeps rallies alive, yet Monfils’ creativity and court coverage still disrupt rhythm when it matters. His ability to lift his level in big moments should see him through.
Prediction: Monfils in 4
Shane
Who will the crowd be pulling for in this one? Monfils, in his last Australian Open, or the 24-year-old Aussie? Something tells me the Frenchman will be able to coax the spectators to his side. No one thinks Monfils is going out in the first round of any major this year, right?
Prediction: Monfils in 4
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Baez
Zain
One of the most surprising things to start the season has been Sebastian Baez’s sudden improvements on hard courts, which saw him win a cluster of matches early in the year. In this classic baseliner vs servebot match, the court conditions will be vital, and as the Australian Open has been on the faster side, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard comes through.
Prediction: Mpetshi Perricard in 5
Ilemona
Baez thrives on extended rallies, but Mpetshi Perricard’s serving power limits those opportunities. If he protects his service games, the matchup swings firmly his way.
Prediction: Mpetshi Perricard in 5
Shane
Mpetshi Perricard’s serve is one of the most devastating on tour. However, if he wants to take the next step in his career, he must improve his play from the baseline. Sure, the Frenchman will win a boatload of free points in this match. But I like Baez’s ability to get the point started and run Mpetshi Perricard around the court.
Prediction: Baez in 4
Lorenzo Sonego vs Carlos Taberner
Zain
Lorenzo Sonego’s aggressive tennis might mean he can always be susceptible to self-combustion, but Carlos Taberner is a player with little to no success in his career off clay courts. Ultimately, the more willing shot-maker and more experienced player on tour should win this match.
Prediction: Sonego in 3
Ilemona
Taberner’s consistency keeps things close early, but Sonego’s willingness to attack second serves changes the dynamic. That aggression should be enough to separate them.
Prediction: Sonego in 3
Shane
Sonego is sneakily a solid Australian Open player. The Italian reached the quarterfinals in Melbourne last season and has only been knocked out in the first round once in seven appearances. Taberner is as close to a clay-court specialist as we have in today’s game. With the courts playing fast, Sonego should have no trouble advancing.
Prediction: Sonego in 3
Karen Khachanov vs Alex Michelsen
Zain
A repeat of their last year’s match at the very same tournament, which the American Alex Michelsen won comfortably, this match can go either way, depending on which player implements their game plan better. Karen Khachanov’s form of late has been very suspect, and while Michelsen himself has been struggling for match wins after a good start to 2025, I just don’t think there is enough difference between the two players to completely reverse last year’s result here.
Prediction: Michelsen in 5
Ilemona
Michelsen’s confidence makes this interesting, but Khachanov’s weight of shot consistently pushes opponents deep. That physical pressure should wear down resistance over time.
Prediction: Khachanov in 5
Shane
For my money, the best first-round match on the docket will feature some scintillating baseline battles between Khachanov and Michelsen. Both strike the ball with power and consistency. This one might come down to who holds the advantage on second-serve points won. I love Michelsen’s game, but this feels like a spot where Khachanov digs out a five-setter.
Prediction: Khachanov in 5
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane – USA TODAY Sports
