‘I’m convinced he’s a Grade 1 horse and should win off this mark’ – our experts delve into Saturday’s quality cards
Who wins between Sir Gino and The New Lion in the Unibet Hurdle (3.00 Cheltenham)?
Page Fuller, RaceiQ analyst The New Lion. Despite his blip last time his jumping is slicker with a RaceiQ Jump Index of 7.9/10 compared to Sir Gino’s 7.3/10. His proven speed and stamina will be key on soft ground over 2m. His top speed of 36.53mph, clocked when winning the Turners Novices’ Hurdle last year, is faster than Sir Gino has ever registered.
James Hill, tipster It’s a big day for The New Lion and he gets 3lb from Sir Gino. However, it’s a four-runner race on the New course and I’d be surprised if Nicky Henderson’s horse isn’t just too good. He’s yet to be beaten and oozed class in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Jumping might be his Achilles heel, but there’s not much of it in the last mile on this track and he should have too much quality.
Ben Poste, jockey There doesn’t seem to be a confirmed front-runner, and if it turns into a tactical affair Sir Gino will have a little bit more up his sleeve than The New Lion. It will be interesting to see what happens as I don’t think Harry Skelton will want to be left in front again on The New Lion.
John Priddey, Ladbrokes The New Lion looked uncomfortable making the running in the Fighting Fifth, so I suspect Sir Gino will dictate this to suit his speed and win rather cosily.
Graeme Rodway, deputy betting editor I’m with The New Lion. He was my idea of this year’s Champion Hurdle winner as soon as he passed the line in last season’s Turners and I’m willing to forgive him for his fall at Newcastle on his reappearance. He would probably have won that day had he stood up and is capable of making amends at the expense of Sir Gino, who jumps hurdles like he does fences.
Page Fuller Yes. Grey Dawning had plenty in hand in the Betfair Chase, as he demonstrated when quickening to clock a faster final furlong than his penultimate one, which is very rare. Impose Toi is a better jumper than his main adversary Strong Leader, and also has better sustained speed. In their last two races Impose Toi has completed the final furlong faster than Strong Leader.
James Hill They can both be beaten. Grey Dawning is a very short price in the Cotswold Chase in which Flooring Porter is clearly the value. In the Cleeve Hurdle there’s not as much between Impose Toi and Strong Leader as the odds suggest. Some say the latter doesn’t like Cheltenham, but he was only beaten a length and a quarter in this race two years ago and comes up the hill. He’s been running well in the cheekpieces this term.
Ben Poste Dan Skelton has made it clear that the whole of Grey Dawning’s season revolves around the Gold Cup, and you would like to think he wins this. Impose Toi seems to be getting better and better and I can’t see his old rival Strong Leader turning the form around on these terms.
John Priddey The double pays 2-1 at the time of writing so probably not! Both horses justify their short prices but don’t offer any value.
Graeme Rodway No. Grey Dawning has the Gold Cup coming up and might be vulnerable after a short break, so back Flooring Porter. He loves Cheltenham and could be difficult to pass in this small field if he is fully wound up on his return. Impose Toi is more likely to win than Grey Dawning, but Doddiethegreat was a big eyecatcher behind him at Ascot last time and could do better.
Flooring Porter: could be the value in the Cotswold ChaseCredit: john grossick
Give us your verdict on the Great Yorkshire Chase (2.05) at Doncaster
Page Fuller Grand Geste is really hard to oppose. Considering his inexperience his jumping last time was exceptional, giving him a whopping 20.76-length advantage compared to the field average. The trip was no problem either, as he was the only horse in the race to complete the final half-mile faster than 60 seconds.
James Hill, tipster My initial pick was Joyeux Machin, but I see heavy is now in the going description, so I’ll go for Grand Geste. I fancied him for last week’s Peter Marsh, but connections have opted for this race, and he can overcome a 10lb rise for his impressive victory in the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock last month. He was stepping up in trip there, but clearly improved for the extra distance and his jumping was spectacular.
Ben Poste Grand Geste is rapidly improving and his form looks rock-solid. I think conditions will be similar to when he won at Haydock last time, and it will be a big ask for Deep Cave to give him 12lb.
John Priddey Walking On Air looked set to win last year when crashing out at the last. His form figures either side of that make grim reading but the Faye Bramley/Cheeky Pups outfit is a shrewd one and I expect he’ll be primed for redemption.
Graeme Rodway Josh The Boss has run only three times over fences (excluding a walkover) and was an impressive winner over 2m3f at this course in November. He recorded another career-best when second over 2m4f at Aintree last time and is open to further progress now that he steps up to 3m for the first time for the Twiston-Davies stable that has landed this race three times.
Who else should we look out for on ITV at Cheltenham?
Page Fuller J’Arrive De L’Est in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (1.50). His jumping was ring-rusty last time on ground quicker than ideal, and on our figures he forfeited more than 20 lengths to Final Orders. Even a small improvement in that department, with the swing in the weights, will close that gap.
James Hill Providing this rain stops, Jagwar should take some beating in the premier handicap chase (1.15). It’s a bit boring, but he’s two wins from three at Cheltenham, including on this day last year, and I thought he made a nice reappearance when third in last month’s December Gold Cup. The race wasn’t run to suit, he was a bit fresh and he’ll be much better for the outing. He looks a banker this time.
Ben Poste Jagwar was on an upward trajectory last year and flew home in the December Gold Cup on his reappearance. Granted a clear round I expect him to resume winning ways in the premier handicap chase (1.15).
John Priddey I think Tommie Beau will outrun his odds in the Cross Country Handicap Chase (1.50). He looked a dab hand over the fences on his previous try over them (still going well when the rider took the wrong course three out) and is 15lb lower now.
Graeme Rodway I’m convinced Jagwar is a Grade 1 horse in the making and he should win off a mark of just 149. He didn’t jump with fluency early on when beaten over course and distance last time and ended up poorly placed off a slow pace as a result. However, he flew home late and should be sharper at his fences following that spin.
Give us one more to watch on ITV at Doncaster
Page Fuller Jetara can repeat her success in the Grade 2 mares’ hurdle (1.30). She’ll appreciate the return to mares’ company over hurdles for the first time since finishing 11 lengths behind Lossiemouth in the Mares’ Hurdle at last year’s Cheltenham Festival. James Bowen, who has an impressive 22 per cent strike-rate at the track in the last 12 months, is reunited with her.
James Hill Jetara won the Grade 2 mares’ hurdle 12 months ago and returns on Saturday. She might not be in quite the same form though, and preference is for Feet Of A Dancer (1.30). Both she and Dream On Baby filled the places behind Wodhooh at Leopardstown over Christmas. The latter is 3lb better off here, but Feet Of A Dancer will prefer the softer ground. She was an eye-catching fourth in the Pertemps Final last March.
Ben Poste I expect Mighty Bandit to win the 2m½f handicap chase (3.13). The horse who finished second to him last time subsequently won at Windsor and I think his form has more substance to it than Milan Tino’s.
John Priddey The Last Cloud can be a player at a big price in the Grade 2 River Don Novices’ Hurdle (12.55). He is stepping way back up in trip but is bred to be a stout stayer and his formlines are strong.
Graeme Rodway There should be a lot more to come from Get On George now he steps up to 3m½f in the River Don (12.55). He found 2m3½f an inadequate test at this course last time and was hard under the pump in third two out, but rocketed home to win going away. He ran the final furlong three and a half lengths faster than anything else that day and will stay this trip well.
Who takes your eye away from the ITV cameras?
Page Fuller Act Of Innocence in the Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham (4.10). Last time he quickened well enough to clock one of the top five fastest final half-miles at Newbury over obstacles in our database, but his jumping fell apart under pressure on the good ground and he forfeited 3.4 lengths to the winner Minella Yoga over the last three hurdles.
James Hill, tipster Maybe I’m missing something, but I’m not sure why Heads Up isn’t favourite in the closing Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham (4.10). He’s got the best form, he’s got the course form and surely has the fewest questions to answer. Act Of Innocence was beaten by a three-year-old last time, and both he and Taurus Bay will be stepping up in trip on very soft ground. Give me 9-2 about the Irish runner any day.
Ben Poste El Jefe in the conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter (12.47). He flew home late at Haydock last time and, with conditions similar, he should win.
John Priddey, Ladbrokes Global Warning was well backed but endured a nightmare trip on his previous visit to Lingfield. With Sean Levey up this time, he should go close in the 7f handicap (2.48).
Graeme Rodway The 2m½f handicap chase (3.13) at Doncaster is a good race and Brookie could bounce back to his best. He twice ran well in Grade 1 novice company last season behind Kalif Du Berlais at Aintree and Majborough at Punchestown, and is better than he has shown in two starts at Cheltenham and Aintree this season. He can prove that at the scene of his last win.
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