Championship Sunday is upon us, and after a rollercoaster of a post-season so far, expectations are sky-high as four teams battle for a berth in Super Bowl LX.
The AFC brings us a rematch 10 years in the making — though, it’s one that even a few months ago, few would’ve guessed we’d be seeing, as the New England Patriots visit the Denver Broncos. Defence should be the name of this game, but all eyes are on the quarterback position as the Broncos turn to backup Jarrett Stidham to get them to the Super Bowl after Bo Nix was injured last weekend.
The NFC promises a heavyweight clash as the Los Angeles Rams’ explosive offence meets the Seattle Seahawks’ stifling defence. Considering just how tightly contested the divisional rivals’ regular-season matchups were, this one feels like a gift from the football gods. A tie-breaker for a chance to play on football’s biggest stage is the perfect way to settle the score.
Here’s what we’re looking at in each matchup.
No. 2 New England Patriots @ No. 1 Denver Broncos | Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
The world was a very different place 10 years ago, but looking at the football field and comparing notes with January 2016, things are looking… quite similar, actually. That year, the top-seeded Denver Broncos hosted the No. 2-seed New England Patriots, with a ticket to the Super Bowl in San Francisco on the line. Sound familiar?
Back in 2016, you could see that AFC Championship matchup coming a mile away — Tom Brady’s Patriots and Peyton Manning’s Broncos weren’t surprising anyone with their respective success. You cannot say the same about either side of this matchup. While the Broncos were expected to take a big step forward thanks to elite defensive play and another year’s worth of experience for Bo Nix, they arrive at this AFC showdown ahead of schedule — and without Nix.
“Ahead of schedule” is a monumental understatement when talking about the Patriots’ rapid rise from league basement to conference championship just one year into Mike Vrabel’s tenure as head coach and two seasons into Drake Maye’s pro career.
Both teams arrive here on the strength of outstanding defensive play, and both will have to rely heavily on that side of the ball if they’re to get to Super Bowl LX. And yet, it’s the quarterbacks that hold the intrigue here.
One key question for the Broncos: Can Jarrett Stidham play hero?
The NFL playoffs can deliver the highest highs and the lowest lows. The Broncos experienced both in the span of mere minutes when they won their Divisional Round bout against the Buffalo Bills and lost their starting quarterback to an ankle injury in the process.
There will be no Nix-ian late-game magic for this offence, which so often relied on explosive plays from the second-year starter en route to fourth-quarter comebacks made possible by Denver’s exceptional defence. That defence remains the team’s best hope to win the Super Bowl, but on offence, this is backup Jarrett Stidham’s show now. It’s been two years since Stidham last threw a pass in an NFL matchup, his most recent game tape dating back to Week 18 of the 2023 season. He’s a well-respected veteran backup at this point, but the lack of in-game experience is stark considering the stakes.
Despite the lack of starts, Stidham’s accuracy and timing are considered his biggest strengths. Broncos head coach Sean Payton is expected to design a gameplan that embraces that — quick throws, very few designed QB runs — in order to put as little pressure on Stidham as possible. Literally — while Nix can get away with a little improv when pressured, thanks to his athleticism and mobility, that’s not a game Stidham’s known for. Any indecision could put him in hot water against a Patriots pass rush that’s gained plenty of confidence this post-season against weak offensive lines. New England sacked Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert six times on Wild Card Weekend and got to Houston’s C.J. Stroud three times while also registering a trio of interceptions. The Broncos boast a strong o-line, providing some optimism about Stidham’s chances at success, but now face a situation that leaves very little margin for error if they’re to keep their No. 2 guy on his feet.
One key question for the Patriots: Can Drake Maye clean up his game?
While the obvious quarterback concerns are focused on the Broncos’ side of the ball, there are a few questions when it comes to Maye, too. His status as a top candidate for regular season MVP was no doubt earned, but his post-season performances have left something to be desired — particularly when it comes to ball security.
Maye is already among the elite when it comes to quick decision-making and vision for the game, and has faced and survived more than a few hurdles so far in these playoffs, considering the strength of the defences New England has faced to get here. Much has been made about New England’s strength of schedule in the regular season, which featured very few playoff-calibre clubs — but Maye has been tested plenty in back-to-back playoff games, having faced two of the league’s top defences in the Chargers and Texans. And while the Patriots have prevailed, Maye’s play wasn’t up to his usual standards in either game.
Maye’s 72 per cent completion rate in 17 regular-season games drops to 58.9 per cent in two playoff matchups. Eight fumbles in the regular season has turned into six in two playoff games, including four against Houston — troubling number that were simply overshadowed by the poor play of his QB counterparts on both occasions. Against another sensational defence in Denver, he cannot afford to fumble away opportunities.
No. 5 Los Angeles Rams @ No. 1 Seattle Seahawks | Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
It was always going to come down to the NFC West, wasn’t it? In a season as topsy-turvy as this one has been, this division has been the best in football all season — and the Seahawks and Rams have taken turns in the top spot the whole campaign. While the AFC has delivered more than a few surprises, there’s simply no doubt we’re about to see the NFC’s two best teams from wire to wire go head-to-head.
Sunday night’s clash for a spot in the Super Bowl should bring all the drama, considering how things have ended between these divisional foes in their pair of regular-season bouts. Act I saw Seattle’s offence out-gain L.A.’s through the air and on the ground but fall 21-19, with Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold throwing four interceptions. Darnold & Co. won Act II in overtime, despite Matthew Stafford having his best statistical game of the season.
What will Act III bring?
One key question for the Rams: Can Matthew Stafford solve Seattle’s defence?
Look at Matthew Stafford’s MVP-worthy numbers on the season, and you’ll that his best statistical output of the year and his worst both came against the Seahawks. Their last meeting saw Stafford complete 29 of 49 passes for 457 yards and three touchdowns, though it wasn’t quite enough to stave off the Seahawks’ comeback and eventual overtime win.
Stafford will have to be at that same level on Sunday, but his recent performances could be cause for concern. Two of Stafford’s three worst completion percentages this year have come in the post-season against the Panthers and Bears, with the other coming against Seattle back in Week 11. The offence looked out of sync at times against the Bears last weekend, with even top receiver Puka Nacua not up to his usual sure-handedness (though, he still came up big in the end). Stafford hasn’t fared well under pressure, and considering just how elite Seattle’s defence is at pressuring opposing QBs, it’ll be interesting to see how L.A.’s veteran responds and whether he can bounce back from a lacklustre outing to get the Rams back to the Super Bowl or if this high-powered Rams offence is running out of juice just shy of the finish line.
One key question for the Seahawks: How will Sam Darnold handle the pressure?
After last year’s wild-card collapse as a Viking, Darnold passed his first playoff test in Seattle with the Seahawks’ dominant victory against a depleted 49ers squad. While that’s undoubtedly a confidence boost, the win came on the power of Seattle’s stifling defence more than the Darnold’s arm. That will feel like a pop quiz compared to the test he’s about to face against the Rams — the team that walloped Darnold’s Vikings last January, and that has given Darnold plenty to think about in two regular-season head-to-heads this season.
Yeah, there’s more than a little history here, and plenty of pressure in every sense of the word. One of the biggest concerns for Darnold will be how L.A. pressures him. Darnold struggles under pressure, having given up 11 of his NFL-leading 20 giveaways on the season when feeling the heat. His struggles have been particularly evident against the Rams — he threw four interceptions against L.A. when the clubs met in Week 11 and two in Week 16.
Adding to the challenge — and, yes, the pressure — is the fact Seattle’s offence will be without one half of its one-two punch of a run game after running back Zach Charbonnet suffered a knee injury last weekend against the 49ers. All eyes will be on Kenneth Walker III as the solo star in the backfield. If the Rams can manage to keep the run game contained with one less weapon, Darnold will be forced to carry the load on offence. Is he up to the task?
