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Super Bowl 2026 preview, odds: Analysis of Patriots’, Seahawks’ chances to win it all

There’s been turnover at the top of the NFL hierarchy this season, but there will be a dose of familiarity in Super Bowl LX.

The Patriots knocked off the Broncos, 10-7, in the AFC Championship game, putting them back in the Super Bowl much quicker than expected. New England was 8-26 over the previous two seasons, but head coach Mike Vrabel’s arrival and second-year quarterback Drake Maye’s ascension put them back in the Super Bowl for an NFL-best 12th time.

The Seahawks outlasted the Rams, 31-27, in the NFC Championship to secure a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX, famous for cornerback Malcolm Butler’s interception of Russell Wilson at the goal line to secure the Patriots’ 28-24 victory. While Seattle had the NFL’s best scoring defense this season, Sunday showed they could win a shootout as well.

The Patriots have six Super Bowl victories, while the Seahawks have one.

The Patriots have won 16 of their last 17 games, shaking off a 1-2 start to the season. They wrestled the AFC East crown from the Buffalo Bills, who had won five in a row, and got into the playoffs for the first time in four years.

While the Patriots had their legitimacy as a contender questioned after facing the easiest schedule in the NFL during the regular season (a .391 combined opponent win percentage), they erased any doubts with their postseason run. They started with a 16-3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round and also had a 28-16 takedown of the Houston Texans in the divisional round before going to Denver and hanging on in a defensive battle. The Patriots had been 0-4 in prior postseason games at Mile High.

Maye, a 23-year-old MVP candidate, led the league with a 72.0 completion percentage during the regular season, and he ranked third with 31 touchdown passes and fourth with 4,394 yards. He also rushed for 450 yards and four touchdowns, though Maye was sacked 47 times, fourth-most in the NFL. The numbers haven’t been as gaudy in the playoffs, but Maye has been a difference-maker with timely plays, including a 6-yard touchdown run and a 28-yard scramble that led to a field goal against the Broncos.

In three playoff games overall, Maye has completed 43 of 77 passes (55.8%) for 533 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions along with 141 rushing yards and the score. Though it should be noted the Patriots faced three of the top-five teams in total defense. They combatted blustery conditions during their two games in Foxboro before a Rocky Mountain snowstorm.

Maye was clean with the ball despite getting sacked five more times against the Broncos. That was pivotal as the Patriots closed out the victory, but it was also a huge concern after he took 10 sacks, fumbled six times (losing three) and tossed two picks in their first two playoff wins.

The Patriots defense has played like a unit with something to prove, too, and that’s befitting of a Vrabel-coached unit. Vrabel, who played in four Super Bowls for the Patriots as a linebacker, overhauled a group that was regressing in coach Bill Belichick’s final year and worsened in Jerod Mayo’s lone season.

The Patriots allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league this season after ranking 22nd in 2024 and 15th in 2023. They’ve given up an average of 8.7 points per playoff outing.

New England will face an even bigger test against the Seahawks. Coach Mike Macdonald also led quite the turnaround in Seattle, and the roster is stocked with players whose styles align with his. In Macdonald’s second season, the Seahawks, who hadn’t won a playoff game in six years, claimed their first NFC West title since 2020, and advanced to the Super Bowl by beating division rivals in the 49ers and Rams to get to the title game.

The Seahawks were 10-7 in Macdonald’s first season, and they were even better this year as the conference’s top seed. They’ve won nine in a row and 13 of 14, and the Seahawks emerged as true contenders in Week 16 with a 38-37 win against the Rams in one of the best games of the year.

While the Seahawks allowed the fewest points in the NFL during the regular season, they also scored the third-most. Quarterback Sam Darnold’s career revival continued, as he completed 67.7 percent of his passes for 4,048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions during the regular season. Wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 119 catches for a league-high 1,793 yards along with 10 touchdowns. Darnold has yet to throw a postseason interception.

Defensively, they ranked third against the run during the regular season, sixth in takeaways (25) and seventh in sacks (47).

That defense will have to be a force one more time if they’re going to come out on top in the franchises’ second Super Bowl showdown.

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