United Airlines is drawing a very public line in the sand at Chicago O’Hare, and American Airlines is already testing it.
There are airline battles, and then there are airport battles. What’s brewing at Chicago O’Hare (ORD) between United Airlines and American Airlines is less about fares and more about something far more consequential: gates.
On United’s Q4 2025 earnings call, CEO Scott Kirby made it crystal clear that United is done watching American rebuild at ORD without responding. In 2025, Kirby said American’s growth ultimately cost United gates, and he’s not willing to let that repeat in 2026.
Kirby put it bluntly:
“But in 2026, we’re drawing a line in the sand. We are not going to allow them to win a single gate at our expense in 2026. We’re not trying to win gates, but we’re going to add as many flights as are required to make sure that we keep our gate count the same in Chicago.”
If American adds flights to protect or win gate space under the city’s gate allocation formula, United will add flights too. Kirby effectively pledged to match capacity as needed, not because United is trying to “win” gates, but because it refuses to lose them.
A Gate War, Not A Fare War
This is not primarily about fares, at least in this phase of the war. It’s about access. At constrained airports like O’Hare, gates are critical. More gates and peak-time slots mean more schedule breadth, better connectivity, and greater corporate relevance. If you want to win high-yield business travelers, you do not start by focusing on undercutting rival fares. You start by making the schedule impossible to ignore.
Kirby also came armed with numbers, claiming that United made roughly $500 million in profit in Chicago in 2025 while American lost approximately $500 million, with American’s losses potentially widening in 2026. Those are eye-popping figures and I deeply question them (how would Kirby possibly have access to this highly-protected internal data?). Whether one accepts the exact math or not, the message United wants to send is unmistakable: this is a fight United believes it can win, even if it has to spend money to do it. It’s a strategy of intimidation more than anything else…United hopes that American Airlines will back down, or least slow its own ambitious growth plans.
Kirby not only believes that American Airlines will lose money, but that this strategy will help United to make more money in Chicago:
“Certainly, we’ll make at least the same $500 million, I believe. And likely, we’ll still be able to grow our earnings in Chicago for the same reasons it worked last year. American, and we’re pretty good at estimating this is likely to push to about $1 billion in losses in Chicago.”
I find that that logic highly skeptical. In the same earnings call, United effectively boasted that it would make a lot of money in Newark (EWR) because gate restraints would prohibit capacity growth and keep competitors out. Under this formula, United’s own schedule cannot grow either. While of course we would expect an airline to say it will make money with whatever it does, we are talking about diametrically opposite strategies in EWR and ORD.
Plus, I think this tough rhetoric will only embolden American Airlines even more rather than encourage them to retreat.
American Tests The Line
AA has not backed down. On the contrary (and perhaps in direct response to the United earnings call), it just announced additional service from O’Hare, including new domestic routes and a seasonal Hawaii addition.
Departure airport
Arrival airport
Aircraft type
Service start date
Service end date
Frequency
Chicago (ORD)
Allentown, Pennsylvania (ABE)
Embraer 170
May 21
Year-round
2x daily
ORD
Columbia, South Carolina (CAE)
Embraer 170
May 21
Year-round
2x daily
ORD
Kahului, Hawaii (OGG)
Boeing 787-8
December 17, 2026
March 27, 2027
1x daily
All three of these routes overlap with existing United service, the latest battle tin this ongoing war. AA is not looking to maximize short-term margins, it is picking routes that it hopes will force United to decide whether to retreat bur may cause United not just to defend, but escalate.
Chicago’s gate allocation system only intensifies this dynamic. Gate usage is tied to flight activity. If American grows enough flying, it strengthens its case for retaining or even gaining gate access. If United matches or exceeds that growth, it protects its footprint.
Consumers Win This Battle
This is a battle over controls O’Hare over the next decade.
United clearly believes it holds a structural advantage in Chicago: stronger corporate contracts, deeper connectivity, and a larger local base. Kirby’s comments suggest he views American’s expansion as economically unsustainable over time. In his framing, “economic gravity” eventually wins.
“Ego usually beats economic gravity in the short term, but economic gravity always wins in the end.”
But capacity battles have a way of lasting longer than expected. And even if United ultimately prevails, there may be real short-term pain for both carriers, much to the benefit of consumers (which is why I am happy to sit back and watch this unfold.)
May the best carrier win…
CONCLUSION
United has made it clear that it will not cede ground at O’Hare. American has made it clear that it will not retreat quietly. What happens next depends on how long each airline is willing to endure margin pressure in hopes of maximizing long-term positioning.
This is not just a Chicago story. It is a reminder that in the airline industry, control of key hubs often determines who thrives and who merely survives (look at Delta’s fortress hubs as the biggest reason as to why it dominates the industry in terms of profit). American and United both want to emerge as the dominant carrier, but the real winner in terms of increased flight options, better pricing, and upgraded facilities will be Chicago flyers.
Who will win the battle for Chicago ORD?
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