Mike Vrabel on fourth down decisions: We try to predict how many points we’ll need to win

Much of the talk coming out of the AFC Championship Game has centered on Broncos coach Sean Payton’s decision to eschew a a second quarter field goal and go for it on fourth down. That field goal would have given the Broncos a 10-0 lead — points it would have been nice to have in a game the Broncos eventually lost 10-7.
Patriots coach Mike Vrabel was asked today on The Greg Hill Show about fourth down decisions, and although he didn’t say anything critical about Payton’s decision, he did say that coaches need all have to consider all the factors in deciding whether to kick a field goal or go for it on fourth down, and that one of those factors is how important those points are likely to be at the end of the game.
“I don’t mind being aggressive,” Vrabel said. “The biggest thing is trying to predict the flow of the game and what that’s going to look like and how many points you think you’re eventually going to need to win the football game.”
For Payton, trying to predict the flow of the game might have included considering that he was playing his backup quarterback, and a blizzard was coming in the second half. That’s not a bad time to score whatever points you can, and a 10-point lead at that point in the game would have been huge for the Broncos.
It’s impossible to know how the rest of the game would have gone if the Broncos had taken a 10-point lead in the second quarter, but it’s safe to say Vrabel is glad Payton decided to be aggressive.



