This Coppa Italia round of 16 fixture pits two opposite clubs against each other. On one side is Fiorentina, a fading giant of the game, raging (or perhaps just grumbling) against the dying of the light as it slips deeper into the relegation zone following a defeat against Cagliari on Saturday. On the other side is Como, the arriviste following every modern tactical trend, in contention for a Champions League place, and fresh off an unholy 6-0 demolition of Torino on Saturday.
For those who aren’t cursed with memory, this fixture already occurred in league play this year and ended as a 1-2 defeat, notable for Stefano Pioli moving to a back 4 that worked for the first half before everything unraveled after the break. Perhaps the Viola will have learned a lesson. I doubt that very much, though.
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The match will be played Tuesday, 27 January 2026, at 20:00 CET/3:00 PM EST, at the Stadio Artemio Franchi in beautiful Firenze. The clouds might crack open for some drizzle but it won’t be as cold as you might expect for January, at least, with temperatures hovering around 10°C/50°F.
Three things to watch for
1. Pressing the pressers
Como presses higher than any other team in Serie A, which makes sense; the meta of the modern game is winning the ball high up and letting players figure out a couple quick combinations to put themselves through on goal. Fiorentina’s been quite bad at playing out the back, mostly due to simple errors in possession. Vanoli’s mostly erased those mistakes since taking over and moving to a 4-3-3 but Pietro Comuzzo still coughed up the ball against Cagliari a couple times in bad positions. Marin Pongračić (much improved recently) and Nicolò Fagioli have also made those types of mistakes.
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In the first meeting between these two, Fiorentina eliminated the difficulty of playing through Como’s press by instead pressing the Lariani all the way up themselves. Cesc Fabregas’ boys weren’t ready for that approach and struggled badly: they conceded once and were lucky not to ship another one or two. Unfortunately, Fiorentina didn’t have the energy or focus to sustain that approach and collapsed after the break, allowing Como to impose itself for the final 45 minutes and dig out a win.
I doubt Como will be as susceptible to a surprise press as in the previous game but Fiorentina should be more proactive than usual. That means the front 3 need to set the tone out of possession, which hasn’t always been this group’s forte. Como’s energetic and disciplined so turning this into a track meet favors the visitors but the Viola can’t neglect to press.
2. Confidence
Fiorentina lost in mightily disappointing fashion against Cagliari (2.09 to 1.28 in xG, per Understat) and that might be enough for everyone’s heads to drop again. The previous 4 games saw the club pile up 8 points, which is nearly half of its points on the season. Returning to its spectacularly underperforming ways would put a nail in the coffin of this accursed season. The statistic that I think tells the whole story is the team’s xG: 24 goals scored from 35.05 xG. That’s the mark of a squad that has no confidence.
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Vanoli’s first major hurdle was getting his players to forget about the Pioli era and he cleared it, leading the Viola to some positive results. He’s got the players operating with a bit of belief, a shred of confidence, and a shadow of heart. It’s easy to see progress, though, when things go well. The second, higher hurdle comes after the inevitable setback following that brief good run. If we see a good reaction here, I won’t worry too much. If everyone’s moping around from the opening whistle, though, we’re back to square one. Getting knocked back down is fine; getting back up is what matters, and a team this fragile might struggle to get back up.
3. Hey, it’s a free hit
Here’s the thing: this game doesn’t really matter for Fiorentina. A win would be great, obviously, as it’d show that the Viola can beat this season’s darlings in the cup and remain a dangerous opponent. A defeat could be explained away by prioritizing Serie A and ignoring the midweek fixtures (and I expect Jagiellonia Białystok will be observing with great interest). In short, the result doesn’t matter.
What does matter is, calling back to Point Number Two, is how Fiorentina plays. It’s pretty rare for a team mired in a relegation fight to get a game that doesn’t impact the standings, though, so at least the pressure’s off. Shoot, maybe we’ll even see some rotation, some starts for the new signings, but that might be a bit too much excitement. Sorry. I’ll reel it back in.
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Possible lineups
Fiorentina (4-3-3): de Gea; Fortini, Pongračić, Comuzzo, Dodô; Ndour, Fagioli, Brescianini; Guðmundsson, Piccoli, Solomon ||| Como (4-2-3-1): Butez; Moreno, Kempf, Ramón, Smolčić; Caqueret, Perrone; Rodríguez, Paz, Kühn; Douvikas
Ted’s Memorial Blind Guess Department
Como’s immolation of Torino clearly got the bookies’ attention because they’ve got the visitors as favorites. Frankly, that’s the right call. These are two teams at opposite ends of the table, with entirely different goals for the season, and wildly diverging mindsets. I doubt that Fiorentina can overcome the buzzsaw apparatus that Como’s become without the ball and I doubt that the Viola can slow down Nico Paz or Martin Baturina, so there aren’t that many ways to see a win.
What the hell, though. Let’s call it a 2-1 win for the hosts behind a goal from Marco Brescianini and another from Moise Kean off the bench to cancel out a stunner from Paz as Como shell the Fiorentina defense for 90 minutes and somehow don’t get the win. The xG stuff’s bound to even out eventually and this would be a great time for it to begin flipping, right? Right? Guys?
Forza Viola!
