‘We like our chances’ – race in focus, three horses to note and the best quotes for day one of Musselburgh’s trials weekend
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Insurrection made a strong impression at Musselburgh this time last year and is handicapped to put up another standout performance.
A 16-length winner off 5lb lower under Harry Cobden last February, the nine-year-old now can reap the benefit of Freddie Keighley’s 7lb claim and warmed up for this contest with a pleasing third at the track after making a terrible late mistake on New Year’s Day.
His trainer Paul Nicholls said: “He won the Frodon at the track last year and would have sharpened up for his first run back. He won off 5lb higher last year but we’re taking 7lb off, so we’re hopeful for a good run.”
Among his opponents is JPR One, who will be stepping up to this trip for the first time in his career after a series of respectable placed efforts this season.
“I’ve been thinking about stepping JPR One up in trip all season, so on this easy track, and on decent ground, this looks a good opportunity,” said his trainer Joe Tizzard.
“He’s in terrific form and has done very little wrong this season. He won over almost two and a half miles over hurdles a few years back, and I think this trip will help him travel better into the race. I really think he will run a big race and make the journey worthwhile.”
Teddy Blue has been rerouted from the Dublin Racing Festival in search of another big win after he scooped a £100,000 prize at Ascot for Harry Derham in November.
The trainer said: “He finished fifth behind Thistle Ask at the track last year. He’s in really good form. The drier the ground the better for him. I’d like to think he can run a big race, but he’s always a bit mood-dependent. I’m hoping for a really good run.”
Three key horses for punters
The two Scottish Triumph Hurdle contenders with a Grade 1 entry at Cheltenham, Lord and Scarlet Moon, have had their limitations exposed. The race may have greater significance on the Fred Winter instead via Secret Force.
A rare Musselburgh runner for Gavin Cromwell, Secret Force will have been targeted at this for his leading Scottish owner and needs a third hurdles run to qualify for a mark.
He was impressive on his hurdling debut at Punchestown, a race Cromwell landed with Champion Hurdle winner Espoir D’Allen in 2017. Well fancied for a Grade 2 at Cheltenham next time, Secret Force’s jumping failing to convince on the heavy terrain behind good yardstick One Horse Town.
Secret Force is by Frankel and out of a Dubawi mare, so isn’t bred for a slog in the mud, and it is easy to imagine him reminding us of the promise he showed two starts ago. The combination of 77 days away and the return to a sounder surface can enable Secret Force to head to Cheltenham with a decent shout and a £50,000 pot to boot.
The Scottish County Hurdle is an atypical springboard to the Mares’ Hurdle, so it will be interesting to see how Kateira fares before a potential shot at a festival Grade 1.
Kateira is Dan Skelton’s joint highest-rated entry among six representatives in the Mares’, a race for which she can be backed at odds of 66-1.
Kateira: drops back into handicap companyCredit: Michael Steele
The nine-year-old has been campaigned with flair by Skelton this term. She beat an off-colour Golden Ace over 2m at Wetherby before a creditable fourth under a penalty in the Ascot Hurdle over further. A tired, non-staying third over 3m½f at Doncaster followed as a busy six weeks took their toll.
Two and a half miles is probably Kateira’s optimum distance. Still, her talent may allow her to see these off back in a handicap if she is in the mood after a 49-day break. She would be in pole position to become Harry Skelton’s Mares’ Hurdle ride in that scenario.
The other classy topweight on the card is JPR One, who must give at least 17lb to his rivals in the Scottish Champion Chase.
You sense JPR One’s days over 2m have been numbered for some time and a first crack at intermediate trips since his hurdles days is worth pursuing. A sharp, flat track like Musselburgh is the right place to try it.
JPR One, who seldom gets much respite from the handicapper due to his consistency, posted a lifetime best Racing Post Rating of 160 at Cheltenham’s December meeting when last seen. Time may tell that conceding 25lb to thriving winner David’s Well was an impossible task.
JPR One lacks the class of a typical Ryanair Chase winner, but anyone who takes three-figure odds about him each-way for a Grade 1 which is bound to slice up will be in a reasonable position if he wins at Musselburgh.
Analysis by Robbie Wilders
Best of the quotes
Dan Skelton, trainer of Kateira (1.43)
It’s a very competitive race as you’d expect. She carries top weight which isn’t going to make life easy for her, but she won over two miles at the start of the season when she beat Golden Ace. We’re hopeful that she runs well. The track shouldn’t be an issue and the ground is fine, too.
Paul Nicholls, trainer of Afadil (1.43)
He’s got a lovely light weight with Freddie Keighley claiming off him. He won this race two years ago off a much higher mark and he likes it at the track, so hopefully he’s got a lovely chance.
Alastair Ralph: trainer of Welsh ChargerCredit: Steve Davies
Alastair Ralph, trainer of Welsh Charger (1.43)
He’s had this on his radar as he won the race last year, and the ground might be slower than it was then but that won’t be a bother.
Lucinda Russell, joint-trainer of Traprain Law (2.20)
He ran well in the race last year. He won well last time and is more a two-miler, but two and a half miles around Musselburgh suits him well.
Lucinda Russell, joint-trainer of Out Of The Woods and Sleedagh (3.00)
Sleedagh will stay all day and would get four miles in time, but it’s local for the owners. We think Out Of The Woods will like the sharp track.
Lucinda Russell, joint-trainer of Chanonry Point (3.37)
She’s a really nice filly who we may have run over too far last time and this will suit her better. We like our chances.
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