Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz’s Australian Open final and the weight of tennis history
MELBOURNE, Australia — Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic have already played one memorable match in Melbourne, but Sunday’s Australian Open final between the greatest men’s tennis player of a generation and the greatest men’s tennis player of all time carries the weight of sporting history.
After two riveting semifinals, in which Alcaraz managed cramps and a rising Alexander Zverev to win in five sets, before Djokovic stunned Jannik Sinner with a crashing baseline performance, fate has delivered a simple equation.
Djokovic is seeking to become the player with the most Grand Slam singles titles in history. Alcaraz is playing to become the youngest man to complete the career Grand Slam. What awaits tennis Sunday night? The Athletic’s tennis writers, Matthew Futterman and Charlie Eccleshare, weigh in below.
What would make Novak Djokovic’s 25 Grand Slam titles so historic — beyond the record?
Matthew Futterman: If Djokovic wins, he will be the first tennis player to reach 25 singles majors, surpassing Margaret Court’s record of 24. I don’t think that is a big deal. Men and women compete separately. Djokovic has made clear that he has never been focused on Court. Thirteen of her major titles came before 1968, when the Grand Slams were only open to amateur players.
The history is wrapped up in the clarity of the number: 25. It feels so weighty. It’s three more than Rafael Nadal and five more than Roger Federer, Djokovic’s nearest rivals. Federer, the first to get to 20, said that the figure was defining for him, as it would be for Djokovic.
There is more potential history for Djokovic. He would become the oldest man to win a Grand Slam title in the Open Era (also since 1968), surpassing Ken Rosewall, who won the 1972 Australian Open at 37 years, 2 months and 1 day. Djokovic will be 38 years, 8 months and 11 days old Sunday.
It would also be his 11th Australian Open title, moving him one closer to Nadal’s record of 14 at a single major, the French Open.
Margaret Court holds the 1970 Wimbledon trophy, her 19th singles title. (Central Press / Getty Images)
Charlie Eccleshare: I know what Matt means about there being no comparison between Djokovic and Court, but it would still be meaningful for him to move past 24. More widely, it would mean tennis pundits no longer having to explain the amateur asterisk against Court’s record.
Djokovic surpassing Rosewall’s record would also highlight how the tennis world has been desensitized to his evergreen brilliance. He reached the semifinals at all four majors in 2025, an absurd achievement in his late thirties.
Victory Sunday would be the ultimate endorsement of his sustained brilliance. Standing alone would be very special.
James Hansen: Djokovic is a king of symbolism. This is the player who pointed to his head 22 times at the 2023 Adelaide International, which preceded his 23rd Grand Slam title, and brought a Pikachu card (No. 25 in the Pokédex) to last year’s Australian Open.
But whenever he is asked about Court’s record, he tends to defer to a more general goal of winning as many majors as he can. It seems right that for Djokovic, the 25 is about the weight of a number only he has, rather than breaking any specific record.
@tennistv Djokovic points to his head 22 times after winning Adelaide… and then 🏆 #tennis #tennistv #atptour #fyp #djokovic ♬ original sound – Tennis TV
What would make Carlos Alcaraz’s career Slam so historic — beyond the record?
Futterman: Winning all four Grand Slams is just so hard. Despite becoming more similar than they were 25 years or so ago, the playing surfaces remain distinct. Only four men have done it since the Grand Slams professionalized 58 years ago. Five women have done it in that time period too, with Billie Jean King’s lone Australian Open title coming just before the first tournament of the Open Era.
No one has achieved a career Grand Slam since 2016, when Djokovic won the French Open. Alcaraz is trying to become the youngest man to complete the set, breaking Nadal’s record of 24 years, 3 months and 10 days old. If he did it Sunday, the record would stand at 22 years, 8 months and 28 days; if he doesn’t do it, he will have another opportunity at the 2027 tournament.
Alcaraz has also made it clear that he wants to be the best player ever. He already has six major titles, and in 2022, he became the youngest world No. 1 since the official rankings began in the early 1970s at age 19. Sunday’s final could be another big box to check.
Eccleshare: In the modern era of men’s tennis, doing anything quicker than one of the Big Three did it is huge. Alcaraz wants it so much that he told reporters Friday that he’d rather win this year’s Australian Open than all three of 2026’s other majors — not a new sentiment.
A win Sunday would take him to another level in the sport’s pantheon, while the simplest thing it changes — his moving from six major titles, to seven — would draw him level with John McEnroe and take him beyond the likes of Björn Borg and Stefan Edberg. Alcaraz is aware of tennis’ history and his shifting place in it, making these milestones even more significant.
Who will feel the weight of history more?
Futterman: Djokovic. Alcaraz has a better chance of winning next year’s Australian Open than Djokovic does of winning another Grand Slam title. Alcaraz may even have a better chance of winning next year than Djokovic does of actually making another Grand Slam final. To reach this one, Djokovic had some good fortune: the dangerous Jakub Menšík withdrew from their fourth-round contest, before Lorenzo Musetti was injured in their quarterfinal while leading Djokovic by two sets to love.
Djokovic also played some of the best, most aggressive tennis of his career to beat Sinner, and needed five sets and 16 of 18 break points saved to do it — a similar feat to his 2024 Paris Olympic Games gold-medal win over Alcaraz, when he played the best tennis of his late years full-stop and needed two tiebreaks to win the match.
Novak Djokovic after beating Carlos Alcaraz at the 2024 Olympics. (Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
Whether he believes it or not, this might be his one shot at glory. Alcaraz is guaranteed another one next year.
Eccleshare: Djokovic might have fewer shots left, but based on the record, it’s Alcaraz who will be feeling it more.
The match he lost against Djokovic here last year, when Djokovic sucked Alcaraz into a fever-dream match he could not escape, was a sickener, as was that 2024 Olympics. And even when Alcaraz beat Djokovic comfortably in last year’s U.S. Open semifinal, he said afterward that he didn’t really enjoy the match.
Djokovic makes Alcaraz tense, almost as if he has so much respect for him that he cannot be his natural exuberant self. His history with Sunday’s opponent and Djokovic’s Australian Open record (he has won 10 titles from 10 finals) could make Alcaraz uncomfortable.
How will the match be decided?
Futterman: Djokovic is the master of the night session on Rod Laver Arena. He has never lost an Australian Open final, and they are always played at night. The forecast is chilly for summer, which will take some sting out of Alcaraz’s lasers and give what Alcaraz called Djokovic’s “sleeper” serve some extra-low skid.
I expect both players to have recovered. Djokovic looked better in the fifth set against Sinner than he did in the first. He might not be as fresh as his opponent but Alcaraz could have some lingering soreness in his upper right leg, which bothered him throughout the semifinal against Zverev.
Eccleshare: Djokovic hasn’t lost a match at night here since 2018. On the other hand, Alcaraz is one of the only players at the tournament, along with Sinner and Djokovic, who can generate power out of basically nowhere.
Australia’s Alex de Minaur took apart Frances Tiafoe and Alexander Bublik largely by scrambling back their most potent shots. As early as the first game of Alcaraz’s three-set win against de Minaur in the quarterfinals, the world No. 1 detonated two forehands. De Minaur had no answer.
Carlos Alcaraz overpowered Alex de Minaur in the quarter-finals this week. (Clive Brunskill / Getty Images)
Djokovic’s post-match demeanor on Friday, in which he described the win over Sinner as like a final, offers another clue to how the match will be decided: Who can back up the huge mental and physical effort they exerted to win their semifinals?
Can Djokovic, at 38, recreate not just the physical intensity of his performance, but also the precise execution of a perfect but redlining strategy? Can Alcaraz stay loose and retain his usual clarity of thought against an opponent who has got in his head previously?
The serve will also be defining. Djokovic’s spot-serving, especially under pressure against Sinner, was outrageously good. Alcaraz has been good this fortnight, and he served to a similar level as Djokovic at last year’s U.S. Open, but he hasn’t quite found that level yet as he tinkers with his motion.
The crowd will be a factor, too. Alcaraz didn’t love it at the U.S. Open when many were rooting hard for Djokovic. He is used to being the crowd favorite, and having fans on a string — like in the closing stages against Zverev on Friday, and against Sinner at last year’s French Open final — has contributed to his feats of escapology.
How have they made these records possible?
Futterman: Alcaraz was already the best player of the post-Big Three generation when he won his first Grand Slam title at 19. All he’s done since then is relentlessly improve every aspect of his game. He makes fewer errors. He stays more focused. His forehand is often unplayable. His serve has finally become the point-ending release valve he needed to let himself play as freely as possible, as often as possible.
Djokovic has adjusted his game, too, as he has aged. Having perfected baseline tennis and aggressive defense alongside Nadal in the 2010s, he has remodeled himself into a peerless spot-server and a first-strike demon capable of ending points at will from anywhere on the court. His serve is next-level when it’s on, and it was as good as it gets against Sinner, getting above 125 miles per hour and hitting the corners of the boxes. And he’s mostly managed to keep his body fit for battle through care, discipline and attention to detail.
Eccleshare: To stand a chance of breaking Nadal’s record, Alcaraz needed to start picking up majors early — and he did, thanks in part to the phenomenal physical conditioning that allowed him to develop far more quickly than most. The rigors of five-set tennis mean that winning a Grand Slam title as a teenager, as Alcaraz did at the 2022 U.S. Open, was considered borderline impossible in modern tennis.
The variety of his game meant he could dominate wherever he was playing, too.
As for Djokovic, part of how he’s got here is by ignoring everyone who wrote him off. Djokovic said after the U.S. Open that it would be hard for him to win a major with Sinner and Alcaraz around because of the physical demands of five-set tennis. But he believes in himself and his ability to meet any challenge, which is why he’s on the verge of glory a few days after being humiliated for two sets by Musetti.
How much does it matter that Djokovic has played one match fewer?
Futterman: Luck is a part of sports. Djokovic already did the hardest thing anyone in men’s tennis has ever done by surpassing Federer and Nadal. If he gets this record, beating Sinner and then Alcaraz within 48 hours, there is no asterisk.
That said, the retirements against him here were a huge help. He didn’t win a set in three Grand Slam matches against Alcaraz or Sinner at the last three majors, and he said his body was a wreck by the time he took the court against them the other times. He was at his peak for at least three of the five sets when he beat Sinner Friday. That’s enough data for me.
Novak Djokovic was at his best against Jannik Sinner in their semifinal. (William West / AFP via Getty Images)
Eccleshare: It matters loads. Djokovic has said how much he struggles physically at the end of majors now. The extra rest doesn’t offer any guarantees, but it gave him a better chance against Sinner. Put it this way: if Musetti hadn’t retired, but Djokovic had beaten him in five sets, he would not have backed that up by beating Sinner in five Friday.
But it won’t matter for the record. Musetti’s retirement was a huge stroke of fortune, but players still need to benefit from that luck in the fullest way, as Sinner did at Wimbledon last year, by winning the title after Grigor Dimitrov retired hurt when leading him two sets to love in their fourth-round match.
Why are these records so important to each player?
Futterman: The same reason. Both want as many records as possible to finish their careers as hands-down the greatest ever. Djokovic never wants to give up his Grand Slam record. If he can win tomorrow and prevent Alcaraz from winning one, that’s a two-Slam swing. Alcaraz would need 20 to surpass him, or two a year for the next 10 years.
At some point, Alcaraz could have an injury. A player younger than him will rise to challenge. Both of these events almost always happen in tennis.
Eccleshare: That’s an interesting point, as remarkable as it seems to be putting Alcaraz into the record conversation already.
But both of these men want to be the greatest tennis player. For Alcaraz, the more records he can pick up along the way, the better. Doing so while depriving a great rival of a piece of history is an intoxicating combination — for both players.
Anything else?
Futterman: One thing Djokovic said in the small hours Saturday morning under Rod Laver Arena shocked me.
“For me, this is a win that almost equals winning a Grand Slam.”
He will find his edge by Sunday night. He’s done this so many times before – getting a massive win and then backing it up with another. But getting a final might have really salved him.
He’s at his best when he has something massive to prove. He’s done that. He’s proven that he’s not tennis’ Don Quixote, tilting at windmills. I’m just a little worried that he’s had his big Australian Open 2026 moment and finding the energy to create another one — and it’s going to take every drop of energy imaginable against Alcaraz when he is going for history too — is going to be really hard.
Eccleshare: Djokovic rarely does flat finals. Wimbledon 2024 against Alcaraz, when he was on one knee, is one of the only ones. But even he can’t fake it if his legs have gone. On the other side of the net, Alcaraz will be attempting to channel the spirit of Nadal in 2009 and Djokovic in 2012, when they won similarly epic Australian Open semifinals and then went on to win five-set finals. Alcaraz is physically strong enough to do it, but playing Djokovic is such a multifaceted challenge that doing anything like that would represent a phenomenal achievement. Roll on Sunday.
