The Champions League league phase reached an extraordinary crescendo on Wednesday night as the final round of fixtures yielded ridiculous drama.
Anatoliy Trubin’s 98th-minute header in Benfica’s 4–2 victory over Real Madrid was the height of the chaos but the 17 other matches across the continent also delivered. Following Friday’s playoff draw, the stage is now set for the knockout phase to begin.
Twists and turns are mandatory during the business end of Europe’s premier competition and predicting its course is nigh on impossible. Opta’s legendary supercomputer doesn’t fear such a challenge, however.
Here are its projections for the Champions League winner following the conclusion of the league phase.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Winner
Arsenal are unsurprising favourites. | David Price/Arsenal FCGetty Images
There are few surprises when it comes to the supercomputer’s predictions but its faith in Arsenal could be categorised as a tad excessive. The Gunners topped the league phase after eight straight wins and have been rewarded with a 30.64% chance of clinching their first-ever Champions League title. Given the level of competition and Arsenal’s lack of title-winning pedigree under Mikel Arteta, however, it’s rather surprising to see them given such healthy odds of glory.
They have double the chance of clinching the crown as their closest challengers Bayern Munich (15.00%). Die Roten’s only European defeat this season came at the hands of Arsenal at Emirates Stadium, with the German giants otherwise flawless. Vincent Kompany’s well-oiled side should have the benefit of a healthy Bundesliga lead when it comes to the latter stages of the tournament, allowing them to prioritise their European excursions.
Despite several iffy European showings against the likes of Bayer Leverkusen and Bodø/Glimt, Manchester City (10.99%) are well-backed by the supercomputer. The Cityzens are typically lethal down the stretch and have the squad capable of going all the way—as well as experience of winning the title in 2022–23.
Liverpool (8.77%) are not far behind Pep Guardiola’s men as they chase a seventh European crown but the inconsistencies of Arne Slot’s side will make it difficult for them, especially if injuries continue to mount in their depleted defence.
Chelsea (7.25%) and Barcelona (7.24%) are almost indistinguishable in their chances of winning the Champions League, with neither entirely convincing in the league phase but still sneaking top-eight finishes. The Blues beat La Blaugrana 3–0 back in November but it remains to be seen if Liam Rosenior’s purple patch is scalable.
Shockingly, reigning European champions Paris Saint-Germain (4.94%) missed out on automatic progression to the last 16 after their draw with Newcastle United (3.16%) in their final outing. The supercomputer projects both of them to make it through their respective playoffs but are less convinced of their title credentials.
Last season’s Champions League finalists Inter (2.63%) and Europa League winners Tottenham Hotspur (2.32%) both seem unlikely victors, although nothing can be ruled out, and surprise top-eight finishers Sporting CP (1.79%) are even more improbable champions.
Amazingly, record European champions Real Madrid (1.66%) are below all the aforementioned teams in the supercomputer’s projections, with their disastrous league phase finale seeing them slip into the playoffs. They remain an entirely unconvincing beast under Álvaro Arbeloa, as they were under Xabi Alonso.
The only positive for Los Blancos is they are given better odds than city neighbours Atlético Madrid (0.86%), who are the most likely team to win the trophy who have an under one percent chance of success.
Club
Chance of Winning Champions League
Arsenal
30.64%
Bayern Munich
15.00%
Manchester City
10.99%
Liverpool
8.77%
Chelsea
7.25%
Barcelona
7.24%
Paris Saint-Germain
4.94%
Newcastle United
3.16%
Inter
2.63%
Tottenham Hotspur
2.32%
Sporting CP
1.79%
Real Madrid
1.66%
Atlético Madrid
0.86%
Juventus
0.63%
Borussia Dortmund
0.62%
Benfica
0.47%
Atalanta
0.33%
Bayer Leverkusen
0.31%
Club Brugge
0.18%
Olympiacos
0.10%
Galatasaray
0.05%
Bodø/Glimt
0.04%
Monaco
0.02%
Qarabağ
0.00%
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