Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace: Why the enmity? Why the struggles? And what of the Mateta effect?
The Premier League fixture computer has turned up a well-timed clash between Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace.
Not only has an alarming recent downturn in form left Palace three points above 17th-placed Forest, their hosts at the City Ground, but Forest this week made a bid for Palace forward Jean-Philippe Mateta. The Frenchman, who would prefer to join Milan, is unsettled and will not feature today.
But before that interest in the striker surfaced, there was the controversy over Palace being demoted to the Conference League after being found in breach of UEFA’s multi-club ownership rules — and Forest benefiting by being given their spot in the Europa League.
So with both on-pitch and off-pitch issues to discuss, Nottingham Forest writer Paul Taylor and his Crystal Palace counterpart Matt Woosnam preview today’s game.
What happened last summer between the clubs and UEFA, and what has happened since?
Matt: The enmity between supporters stems from the decision taken by UEFA last summer, and subsequently confirmed by the Court of Arbitration for Sport, that Palace were in breach of multi-club ownership rules.
The FA Cup winners had qualified for the Europa League but one of their general partners, John Textor, was also a major shareholder at Europa League rivals Lyon. The French club’s higher league finish in Ligue 1 meant they remained in the competition, while Palace were demoted to the Conference League.
Forest, who had qualified for the Conference League after finishing seventh last term, had written to UEFA seeking clarity over the situation. They were subsequently promoted into the Europa League in Palace’s stead.
Paul: Behind the scenes at Forest, there was a degree of sympathy for Palace in the summer. But there was also a sharp sense of frustration that Forest were framed as the bad guys in the situation.
Forest earned their place in Europe and they had prepared for the possibility of being in the Champions League, along with their own sister club, Olympiacos — with owner Evangelos Marinakis having made the arrangements to place his shares into a blind trust. Palace did not make those same arrangements. They broke the rules and suffered the consequences.
Then, the English Football Association charged Palace for the alleged behaviour of their supporters during the Premier League game with Forest in August after a banner appearing to show Marinakis was held up in Selhurst Park’s Lower Holmesdale Stand.
A Forest fan wears an Evangelos Marinakis mask at Selhurst Park in August (Jon Hobley/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Matt: Textor’s stake in Palace was bought out by Woody Johnson in the summer, and the former has had no involvement at Selhurst Park this season. But the club’s fans have pointed out the irony that the number of deals struck by Textor’s Eagle Football holding company and Marinakis as evidence of a healthier relationship than ever existed between Palace and Eagle Football.
A spokesperson for Textor told The Athletic in December: “Our transfer strategy is driven entirely by what is best for our clubs. Football clubs operate as businesses, and in business, it’s entirely common that a business would develop a relationship with a regular trading partner.
“Our transfers have always been conducted in accordance with the appropriate regulations.”
Forest and Palace have progressed into the play-offs of the Europa League and Conference League.
Why has each club struggled this season after last season’s success?
Matt: Palace began the season in good form, despite selling Eberechi Eze to Arsenal, and had risen to a giddy fourth in the Premier League table in mid-December. But their fall since has been spectacular and bruising, stretching to 11 winless games in all competitions.
That is largely due to the unavailability of players. Ismaila Sarr’s hamstring injury was then followed by his departure to the Africa Cup of Nations with Senegal. Daniel Munoz’s knee injury compounded his absence, leaving Palace’s right-hand side severely depleted without adequate cover. Nathaniel Clyne stepped in but was not the replacement Palace needed — and then he picked up an injury, too.
Daichi Kamada’s hamstring tear in the 3-0 defeat against Manchester City in December has impacted them greatly in midfield, depriving them of one of their best players. The lack of squad depth has really hit them hard. Manager Oliver Glasner has been unable to adapt and largely unwilling to use players he does not fully trust from the bench.
Oliver Glasner has confirmed he will depart Selhurst Park in the summer (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
They began the January transfer window in promising fashion, shelling out a club-record fee for former Forest forward Brennan Johnson. But the sale of Marc Guehi to Manchester City, and confirmation that Glasner will depart at the end of his contract in the summer, unsettled them further. The Austrian’s public criticisms of the owners over recent weeks have added to the sense of turmoil.
There is too much uncertainty swirling around the team and club at present.
Paul: Where to start… Nuno Espirito Santo’s fallout with the Forest hierarchy — and most notably global head of football, Edu — sparked a series of events that saw the season descend into chaos. He was replaced by Ange Postecoglou, who lasted only eight games.
From the moment Sean Dyche was appointed, his role was to steady the ship and ensure the success of last season was not followed by a return to the Championship. It was damage limitation.
Forest spent £200million ($274m) on 13 new signings last summer with the idea being to build two teams to compete domestically and in Europe. But with many of the signings struggling, the core of the squad from last season is still carrying the responsibility of turning things around.
Ange Postecoglou during his ill-fated eight-game stint at Nottingham Forest (Neal Simpson/Sportsphoto/Allstar via Getty Images)
How do both clubs view the Mateta situation?
Matt: The timing of Forest’s bid, submitted last Monday, was far from ideal given the two teams’ fixture this weekend. The player has not travelled to Nottingham, with Glasner confirming he is not in the right frame of mind to feature.
There will have been a reluctance among the Palace hierarchy to sell to a direct rival. To that end, while his absence at the City Ground constitutes a blow given a lack of alternative options, Milan’s interest has been welcomed with talks expected to continue over the weekend.
Broadly speaking, a sale at around £35million would represent a good deal for Palace. They will receive a hefty fee for a 28-year-old who has shown no inclination to sign a new contract, and whose existing deal is into its final 18 months. Talks that began before summer 2024 had failed to produce an agreement, with Mateta wanting a higher salary than the one offered. He has also long harboured hopes of playing in the Champions League to increase his international hopes with France. He has three senior caps, earned in October and November.
His form, partly impacted by a knee injury, has been poor during this winless run as well. Mateta will turn 29 in June and the money received can be put towards a younger replacement.
Selling Jean-Philippe Mateta could be good business (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
Paul: Forest believe that they would be signing a proven Premier League goalscorer if they managed to secure the Frenchman. Just as importantly, Mateta would, in theory, fit into Dyche’s system.
Forest have forward options, with Igor Jesus having settled into the side as well as any of the summer signings and with the club having high hopes for Lorenzo Lucca, the loan signing from Napoli — and Taiwo Awoniyi scoring at the weekend.
But with Chris Wood fighting to return from knee surgery, they are lacking a player who has the scoring record that Mateta boasts in the top flight.
Matt: Mateta was booed by some sections of the Palace support upon being substituted late on in the 3-1 home defeat against Chelsea last weekend, but Glasner — perhaps conscious that a move away might yet fall through — has urged fans to remember his contribution to the club’s progress over recent years.
“I mentioned after the game it’s unfair to boo JP because he’s done so much for the club and was crucial for the biggest success in Crystal Palace history,” he said. “What I really appreciate here is that the supporters never forget what the players have done for the club. With Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Wilfried Zaha, Jordan Ayew, Michael Olise, Eberechi Eze, Marc Guehi… the fans always stay by Crystal Palace players.
“JP deserves the same because he makes a huge effort, and had a huge impact in the best year in Palace’s history. We all wish for all the players to stay forever, but the reality is sometimes different.”
How damaging would relegation be for each club?
Matt: It would be horrendous for Palace, in their 13th successive Premier League season but still reliant upon the media revenues that flood into top-flight sides.
Their infrastructure has been gradually improved but is still nowhere near good enough to ease the huge drop in revenue from a drop into the Championship, with their 100-year-old stadium still waiting for its redevelopment to begin.
Many of their players would want to leave, while attendances would drop significantly. As Palace chairman Steve Parish has made clear, relegation is unimaginable.
Paul: Likewise for Forest. The prospect of relegation is almost unthinkable after four seasons back at the top table.
After fighting so hard and for so long to win promotion, Forest have assembled a squad that includes players of international quality. Relegation would put Elliot Anderson, Murillo, Morgan Gibbs-White, Nikola Milenkovic, Ibrahim Sangare and Callum Hudson-Odoi on the radar of some of Europe’s biggest clubs.
Forest would immediately have to restructure much of their squad to cope with the financial impact, all while trying to maintain a core of players who would be capable of securing an immediate return.
Sean Dyche was brought in to salvage Forest’s season (Miguel Lemos/AFP via Getty Images)
What is your match prediction?
Matt: Palace go to the City Ground with a threadbare squad — according to Glasner, they only have 14 fit senior outfield players — in awful form and without their top scorer. They have not won at Forest in the top division since early 1991, when an 86th-minute header from Eric Young saw Steve Coppell’s side beat a team overseen by Brian Clough.
But their away form is better than at home. Somehow, I share Glasner’s belief that they can win. They really need to win. Forest 1-2 Palace.
Eric Young, complete with headband, at the City Ground in February 1991 (Steve Etherington/EMPICS via Getty Images)
Paul: When they name their strongest XI, as they largely have done in their last three Premier League games — from which they have taken seven points — Forest are a decent side, albeit one that has underperformed amid the chaos of the season.
Being able to pick the back four of Ola Aina (back from injury), Milenkovic, Murillo and Neco Williams, has made them assured at the back. While wary of Johnson’s return to the City Ground, Forest will win 2-1.
