We’re just hitting the two-thirds mark of the regular season. The Olympic break is days away, the trade deadline is still over a month away, and a million things can change between now and April.
Is it too early to start thinking about the playoffs?
Probably. But like a little kid noticing the Christmas decorations starting to go up in November, it’s OK to start looking ahead just a bit. And that feels especially true right now, when a peek at the standings hints at a first round that could be especially intriguing.
Most years, I end up writing a full column sometime in March on the best potential matchups that are realistically in play. That’s still the plan this year, unless I forget, which is always a solid possibility. But this week, let’s fire off a preemptive strike with a look at five of the best first-round matchups we could be headed towards.
Bonus five: First-round matchups I’m already getting hyped for
5. Islanders vs. Penguins – Two teams that apparently missed the memo that they weren’t supposed to be here. Two No. 1 picks at opposite ends of their careers, with Matthew Schaefer’s first playoff run vs. Sidney Crosby in what could be his last. And lots of history, with the ghosts of David Volek lurking.
4. Sharks or Ducks vs. Avalanche – The Avs will be massive favorites over whichever team snags the West’s second wild-card spot. Given that, a matchup against the Kings or Kraken doesn’t exactly get the blood pumping (although there is some recent history with Seattle). The Mammoth could be interesting, but they seem headed towards a higher seed. But a team like the Ducks or the Sharks, playing the role of the feisty underdog that’s too inexperienced to know they don’t have a chance? There’d be at least a whiff of the 2019 Lightning vs. Blue Jackets matchup there. And even if the series was over quickly, it would still be fun to see Macklin Celebrini or Leo Carlsson match up against Nathan MacKinnon and friends.
3. Panthers vs. Lightning – This one is going to take some work on the Florida side. But even with the Panthers still eight points out, I’ve yet to meet anyone who seems to honestly believe they’re missing the playoffs. Maybe we’re all in collective denial; it wouldn’t be the first time. But if the Panthers do flip the switch and make the late push everyone is waiting for, they’d very likely find the first-place Lightning waiting for them in round one. These two teams hate each other in preseason, so you can imagine what another playoff matchup would look like.
2. Sabres vs. Red Wings – The two longest postseason droughts in the league are both on pace to end this year, and there’s a good chance it will result in a head-to-head meeting. If it happens, the narratives will write themselves, both buildings will be shaking and one of these teams will win a round for the first time in forever.
1. Wild vs. Stars – Obvious pick is obvious, but we don’t need to get cute. While both teams have cooled off a bit since the days when they felt like the clear picks as the league’s second- and third-best teams, they’re still elite. And because of the league’s insistence on sticking with a division-based playoff format, they’ve been all but locked into a first-round meeting since November. We’ll take seven games, please.
We’ll check back after the deadline to see how many of these matchups are still in play, and whether any other strong pairings have emerged. For now, let’s head to the rankings…
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
The red-hot Pittsburgh Penguins celebrated the tenth anniversary of their 2016 Cup win, and it got a little dusty in there for Sidney Crosby. Uh-oh, maybe it’s not great for the rest of the league to remind him how much he enjoys winning championships.
5. Minnesota Wild (32-14-10, +24 true goals differential*) – I’ve spent the last few weeks with the Golden Knights in this spot, because I figured the Pacific needed a rep. But this week somebody pointed out that first-place Vegas have the same number of wins as the last-place Leafs, and I’m really not sure what to do with that information. So we’re back to three Central teams while I figure out what’s going on.
It doesn’t hurt that the Wild looked impressive going into Edmonton and beating the Oilers, like they always do.
4. Dallas Stars (32-14-9, +30) – They won four straight one-goal games, and have a good chance of carrying that winning streak into the Olympic break with the Winnipeg Jets and St. Louis Blues up next.
3. Carolina Hurricanes (34-15-6, +30) – They just keep putting points in the bank, with yesterday’s overtime win in Los Angeles marking their eighth straight game with at least a point. They need them all, too, with the Penguins stalking them like a horror movie villain.
2. Tampa Bay Lightning (35-14-4, +51) – OUTDOOR GOALIE FIGHT!
Also, Jon Cooper: Sure, why not.
1. Colorado Avalanche (36-8-9, +78) – They’re as cold as they’ve been all season, with last week bringing their fourth set of back-to-back losses since the start of January. But then they go into Detroit and flex on a very good team, so maybe this is less of a cold streak and more of a team that’s already locked into first place having trouble keeping their foot on the gas. Either way, they get a rematch with the Wings tonight, this time on home ice.
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
Not ranked: Columbus Blue Jackets and Buffalo Sabres – I’m starting to think NHL teams should be doing more firing.
That sounds harsh; you never like to see somebody lose their job, and all that. But it’s been a remarkably stable year around the league so far, with only one head coach and one GM relieved of their duties so far.
The first was Kevyn Adams, dismissed as Sabres GM on Dec. 15. On the day of the firing, the Sabres were tied for last place in the Eastern Conference.
The second was Dean Evason, let go by the Blue Jackets on Jan. 12. On the day of the firing, the Blue Jackets were tied for last place in the Eastern Conference.
Today? Well… who’s up for a Sabres/Blue Jackets conference final?
OK, we’re getting ahead of ourselves. But the Sabres have been the league’s hottest team since the change, going 17-4-1 and kicking down the door to the playoff spot that’s eluded them for 14 years. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets are 8-1-0 under Rick Bowness, working their way back into the Eastern conversation while passing seven teams in the standings in less than three weeks.
None of that means Adams and Evason were holding their teams back, and in fact you could argue that both deserve substantial credit for the surges we’re seeing. For his part, Evason didn’t see the change coming and said he felt like his team was on the verge of a turnaround. He’s been proven right, just not the way he thought.
And while Adams had largely become a punchline over his five years in Buffalo, he’s the guy who built the current team; Jarmo Kekäläinen hasn’t made a significant roster move since taking over. Did the change do something to shift the vibes in Buffalo? It sure seems like it. But Adams also deserves some belated credit (and don’t be shocked when his former colleagues toss him a GM of the Year vote or two).
The point is it all adds up to a weird dynamic. You have two teams that pulled the trigger on a big change, and both have been steamrolling the league ever since. Meanwhile, the other 30 teams are apparently content to sit tight. Many of those teams don’t need a change, obviously. But at least a few of them could sure use a second-half boost. And you have to suspect that some decision-makers around the league are watching what’s happening in Columbus and Buffalo and wondering how much patience is too much.
The bottom five
The five teams headed towards dead last, the best lottery odds for the top pick in this year’s draft and a shot at Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg.
It was great to see Linus Ullmark back in goal for the Senators on Saturday, and especially to see him playing well and getting a nice ovation from the fans.
5. Chicago Blackhawks (21-25-9, -28) – They hovered around the playoff bubble for longer than anyone expected, but five straight losses probably spell the end of that. The good news is stuff like this is more important than wins and losses this year. The better news is that we finally get to see them play the Sharks tonight.
4. Calgary Flames (22-26-6, -26) – It’s getting crowded around the bottom of the standings, and that reasonably solid December could end up costing Calgary what would be their first top-three pick in franchise history. The bigger question is how many more veterans Craig Conroy can find new homes for; there were two Flames in the top ten of our latest trade board.
3. St. Louis Blues (20-26-9, -52) – In that trade board piece, CJ says that “Nothing is off the table in St. Louis,” and he has Robert Thomas listed fifth. And his recent surgery apparently won’t change his status as trade bait, according to a Hockey Night in Canada report on Saturday.
2. New York Rangers (22-28-6, -29) – The players seem to have taken Chris Drury’s message to heart, with six regulation losses in their last seven. Meanwhile, Artemi Panarin apparently won’t play between now and the Olympics, and reports say he could be using his no-trade protection as leverage to get an extension out of any move. You can’t blame him, but it will be interesting to see if his contract demands push down the value of a potential deal.
1. Vancouver Canucks (18-31-6, -56) – An interesting observation from Drance over the weekend: For a big bad Canadian market, the Vancouver fan base seems to be handling the dregs of a rebuild just fine. Meanwhile, Peter marked the one-year anniversary of the trade that sent J.T. Miller from Vancouver to New York and why it looks like a win for… Pittsburgh.
Not ranked: Toronto Maple Leafs – We’ll do this quickly because, whether you’re a fan of this team or not, you’re completely sick of hearing about them these days. But I know that if I don’t address this now, the comment section will fill up with readers asking why the Leafs aren’t in the bottom five. I’ve already seen it a few times in recent weeks. So let’s nip this in the bud.
There are two important reasons that the Leafs can’t be in the bottom five. First, keep in mind what we’re doing here. This isn’t about which teams are in the worst shape right now, or slumping the hardest, or generating the most embarrassing stories. If that was what this section was about, then sure, the Leafs would have a case for the one-spot.
But it’s not — this is about predicting what the bottom of the standings will look like by the end of the year. As the season goes on, our list should slowly but surely start to mimic the overall standings. And as bad as the Leafs have been, their brief midseason renaissance means they’re still eight points out of the bottom five, with five teams to pass.
And sure, some of you will say, “We’ve seen 18-wheelers go off the cliff before in Toronto, so you never say never.” Except we pretty much can say never, because of an important factor some of you are overlooking: The Leafs traded a top-five protected pick to the Bruins at last year’s deadline. Do we really think that this cursed franchise is going to be able to recoup that asset, even temporarily, and turn it into a high pick and an elite prospect? Is this your first day here?
The only scenario that makes logical sense would be the Leafs spiraling all the way to fourth- or fifth-last overall, then getting bumped back down to the sixth pick in the lottery and handing that pick to a division rival, who would, of course, use it to draft their next franchise player.
That feels like it could happen. But we’re still a few weeks away from it being likely. So for now, the Leafs are safe from a bottom-five appearance.
Now let’s never speak of them again.
