The Nevada men’s basketball team plays at Boise State on Tuesday night. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Nevada (16-6, 8-3 MW) at Boise State (13-9, 5-6)
When: Tuesday, 6 p.m.
Where: Extra Mile Arena (12,644 capacity)
TV/Radio: None/95.5 FM
Online: Mountain West Network
Betting line: No line posed yet
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. Make point guard an issue: Boise State has an issue at point guard with UCLA transfer Dylan Andrews tallying 10.8 points and 3.3 rebounds per game but shooting only 32.3 percent from the field, including 30.3 percent from the 3-point line. He’s below water in box-score plus-minus in MW games and his backup, Aginaldo Neto, has had issues, too, posting a 30.4 turnover rate in league games with a team-worst box-score plus-minus. It’s hard to win if you don’t get good point guard play. While Boise State has some good pieces and is potentially dangerous, Andrews has not played consistently well often enough for the Broncos. He’s been better statistically in Boise State losses than wins, with the most noticeable thing being an increased usage rate in those defeats. The more shots Andrews takes, the better for Nevada.
2. A happy Camper: Corey Camper Jr. is coming off a career-high 32 points in Nevada’s win over UNLV, with the Wolf Pack an excellent offensive team when he plays well. In Nevada victories, Camper is averaging 18.7 ppg on 52.1 percent shooting, including 48.3 percent from three. In Nevada losses, he is averaging 13.3 ppg on 40 percent shooting, including 36.7 percent from three. The latter stats aren’t bad, but Nevada hits another level when Camper plays like a first-team All-MW pick. The Wolf Pack will need Camper’s best version if it is going to emerge as MW champions, which will mean winning some tough road games over the final six weeks of the season, that challenge starting at Boise State.
3. Win battle of physicality: Boise State has struggled from three in MW play, making just 32.5 percent of those shots. But the Broncos are second in the MW in two-point shooting in league play at 54.7 percent. That is an area where Nevada has struggled, ranking 10th in the league at 47.3 percent. The Wolf Pack has been able to make up for that by attempting 24 free throws per game in conference action. That’s the second most in the MW. Which team is first? That’d be Boise State at 25.5 attempts per game. The physical battle down low – without fouling – will be key, as the Broncos lost its top-two scorers (Drew Fielder, Andrew Meadow) to early foul trouble in its first matchup against Nevada. The paint points plus made free throws should dictate who wins this one.
Prediction
Nevada 75, Boise State 71: This has not been a vintage Boise State team, with the cracks showing early with a loss to Division II Hawaii Pacific in the season opener and the Broncos sitting at 5-6 in league play past the midway point of the conference schedule. That includes a loss at UNLV and lopsided home defeats to Grand Canyon (by 17) and Utah State (by 25). Leon Rice’s team had won four in a row (against lower-level competition) before Friday’s loss at Grand Canyon, which was another 17-point defeat. While Boise State’s advanced metrics mostly look fine, something is off with this team, which will give Nevada a chance to complete its first two-game regular-season sweep of the Broncos since 2017-18. Season record: 16-6
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
