A few weeks ago, this would have looked like a very one-sided Super Bowl. After Week 16, for example, the Seattle Seahawks were second in DVOA, narrowly behind the Rams, and were challenging as one of the top 10 teams in DVOA history. The New England Patriots were 12-3 but ranked 17th in DVOA, only slightly above average at 0.4%.
The Seahawks kept playing well week after week and eventually moved ahead of the Rams, but what really changed was that the Patriots got hot and their poor early-season games moved further into the past. First, the Patriots dominated the Jets and Dolphins in the final two games of the regular season. Then, the Patriots had convincing wins over the Chargers and Texans in their first two playoff games, followed by the close win over Denver in the AFC Championship Game. Add in the playoffs, and the Patriots are now seventh in DVOA for the season. We also have a rating we call weighted DVOA, which gives less weight to early-season games to get a better picture of how well teams are playing just over the last three months. Using weighted DVOA, the Patriots are now the second-best team in the league, slightly ahead of the Rams. The Patriots’ worst games were all early in the year, and at the end of the regular season they had the biggest gap between full-season DVOA and weighted DVOA of any playoff team ever.
Yet even after adding in the playoffs, the Patriots are still significantly behind the Seahawks. Add in the playoffs, and the Seahawks are a historically great team according to our DVOA ratings. This article contains a list of the top teams in DVOA including the playoffs. Right now, the Seahawks are behind the 1991 Redskins, 1985 Bears, 2007 Patriots and 1989 49ers. They are tied with the 1996 Packers.
Each week for the playoff previews, I’ve run a table with a selection of basic stats on the two teams. They’ve mostly included just regular-season stats. For the Super Bowl, I’ve got a table that adds the playoffs. Note that these stats are not snow-adjusted, so the Patriots are a little bit overrated for defense and a little bit underrated for offense. Still, even without considering the snow, their defense has played much better in recent weeks and their offense has struggled in the playoffs.
If you’re checking out FTN’s DVOA for the first time, it’s all explained right here.
SEA (16-3)
NE (17-3)
DVOA
44.9% (1)
16.5% (7)
WEI DVOA
47.7% (1)
33.5% (2)
Seahawks on Offense
SEA OFF
NE DEF
DVOA
10.8% (8)
-3.4% (12)
WEI DVOA
6.6% (11)
-17.1% (4)
PASS
36.9% (5)
2.9% (13)
RUSH
-3.1% (12)
-12.1% (11)
Patriots on Offense
SEA DEF
NE OFF
DVOA
-24.5% (1)
13.5% (5)
WEI DVOA
-30.5% (1)
17.8% (3)
PASS
-19.7% (2)
38.9% (4)
RUSH
-31.7% (1)
-6.9% (20)
Special Teams
SEA
NE
DVOA
9.6% (2)
-0.5% (20)
Week-to-week charts represent that team’s single-game DVOA in either offense or defense. The extra line is a rolling five-week average. All stats below are regular-season only unless noted.
When the Seahawks Have the Ball
According to DVOA, the Patriots’ five best games on defense are the last five games they have played. The Patriots have gotten their pass defense going by upping their blitz tendencies. In the regular season, the Patriots only blitzed 27.4% of the time, which ranked 19th in the NFL. In the postseason, they have blitzed 41.4% of the time. This looks like a good strategy against Sam Darnold. During the regular season, Darnold had only -1.0% passing DVOA when blitzed, which ranked 23rd among qualifying quarterbacks. Even last week, when he had that great performance against the Rams, Darnold was 4-for-7 for 47 yards and a touchdown with two sacks on nine Rams blitzes, worth -4.0% DVOA. The main Patriots to look for on blitzes include linebacker Robert Spillane (14 hurries), safety Jaylinn Hawkins (seven) and slot cornerback Marcus Jones (five).
One way to stop blitzes is with the quick game, but Darnold was not very good on the quick game compared to other quarterbacks. He had 15.0% DVOA on quick throws, which ranked only 27th. (The league average on quick throws is higher than 0.0%, because they are completed at a high rate and of course no sacks are included.) The Patriots defense was only 18th in DVOA on quick throws, but like everything else with the Patriots defense that improves if you only look at the second half of the season plus the playoffs (to seventh).
Darnold significantly declined in the second half of the year, even including last week against the Rams. How much he declined depends on where you draw the line, because he was very good in Week 9 when the Seahawks returned from their Week 8 bye. If you draw the line after that game, the Seahawks declined from first to 11th in pass offense DVOA. However, their running game has been much better… except last week, when the passing game was so good.
Seattle Offensive DVOA, 2025
Weeks
DVOA
Rk
Pass
Rk
Run
Rk
Weeks 1-9
20.8%
5
62.0%
1
-11.4%
24
Weeks 10-21
4.2%
11
20.1%
11
2.4%
7
The Patriots want to get the Seahawks into third-and-long situations as often as possible. This goes without saying, because every defense wants to get the offense into third-and-long situations as often as possible, but it is especially true with Sam Darnold and the Seahawks. Seattle’s passing game was much better on first down (second in DVOA) and second down (fifth in DVOA) this season. In third down, the Seahawks struggled, especially on third-and-long. Although they were very good in the second half of the season with 3-6 yards to go, they were 27th in the league when they needed 7 or more yards. We didn’t notice this problem as much during the regular season because the Seahawks weren’t getting to third down that often compared to other teams. Meanwhile, the Patriots defense also had some problems on third down but they were at their best on third-and-long compared to other third downs. This table represents the second half of the season plus the postseason:
DVOA on Third/Fourth Down, Weeks 10-21 2025
1-2 to go
Rk
3-6 to go
Rk
7+ to go
Rk
SEA Offense
-3.5%
18
34.1%
2
-66.9%
27
NE Defense
-1.4%
17
6.0%
21
-21.8%
10
A big reason that the Seahawks were so much better passing the ball on earlier downs is that Sam Darnold led the NFL with 51.7% DVOA on play-action passes this season. Even when he declined in the second half of the season, his performance on play-action passes barely dropped. From Week 10 on, Darnold had -13.2% DVOA without play action but 42.1% DVOA with play action, trailing only Matthew Stafford.
However, it just so happens that since Week 10, and including the playoffs, the defense with the best DVOA against play-action passes is the New England Patriots at -36.4% DVOA. That includes five picks where no other team has more than three.
Darnold also has an advantage on specific routes, as long as they are out-breaking routes. During the regular season, Darnold ranked only 26th in DVOA on in-breaking routes (dig, slant, post, drag). The Patriots were ninth in DVOA against such routes, and fourth since Week 10. However, Darnold ranked fifth in DVOA on out-breaking routes (quick out, deep out, corner). The Patriots were only 29th in DVOA against such routes, although they are seventh since Week 10. It’s one of their biggest improvements on defense.
Here’s a bad weakness to have against the Seahawks passing game: the Patriots ranked 31st during the regular season in DVOA covering No. 1 receivers. That’s not specifically a Christian Gonzalez stat, as the Patriots didn’t have Gonzalez following the opposing WR1 as much as he did last season. Now, what’s interesting is how that changed over the course of the year. In the first half of the season, the Patriots allowed 40.5% DVOA to WR1s on 68 targets. In the second half of the season, the Patriots allowed an even worse 62.8% DVOA but on only 28 targets. The Patriots defense moved to discourage opponents from throwing to WR1s but they had a lot of success when they were able to get those stars open. In the playoffs, the Patriots have -10.9% DVOA on 23 targets to WR1, although WR1 was tough to define with the Chargers (Quentin Johnston) and Texans (Jayden Higgins because Nico Collins was out).
I expect Gonzalez to spend most of the game covering Jaxon Smith-Njigba, although Klint Kubiak likes to move JSN into the slot or the backfield if he needs to get him open. Smith-Njigba against Marcus Jones in the slot is probably not a good matchup for the Patriots. Also, look for Carlton Davis III on Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed is the deep threat and Davis led the Patriots with six Defensive Pass Interference flags this season.
The Patriots use single-high safety 55.3% of the time, which ranks eighth in the NFL, but they might want to run more plays with two high safeties in this game. Darnold had 27.4% DVOA against single-high safety (seventh) with 9.3 yards per attempt (second behind Drake Maye). However, Darnold dropped to 7.8% DVOA (14th) against two high safeties.
The third-down numbers listed on the table above tie into the problem that the Patriots have on defense against short-yardage runs. During the regular season, the Patriots were dead last in preventing conversions on short-yardage runs at 85%. They also have allowed 5-for-6 conversions on short-yardage runs in the postseason. The Seahawks converted on 70% of these runs, which ranked 11th. However, the Seahawks were much more likely to use Zach Charbonnet on these runs rather than Kenneth Walker III or a Darnold sneak, and Charbonnet is out for the Super Bowl. Walker had just three short-yardage runs during the regular season. So look for tight end AJ Barner on the “tight end tush push” instead. Including the postseason, Barner has converted 10 of 11 on these runs. Mike Macdonald was one of the less aggressive coaches in the league on fourth downs, but he’s definitely got the personnel advantage if he wants to go for it in this game.
Walker shines instead in the open field on more standard first-and-10 runs. He led the NFL in FTN Data’s avoided tackle rate on runs at 34.4%. The Patriots are a very good tackling defense, however, ranking sixth in AVT at 16.8%.
Walker was slightly better running against a stacked box (0.7% DVOA) instead of a non-stacked box (-2.7% DVOA). The Patriots are about average in how often they use a stacked box on defense.
The Patriots had problems on defense in the first quarter this year, constantly allowing touchdowns on the first drive of the game. For the entire year including the playoffs, the Patriots ranked 29th in defensive DVOA in the first quarter and then eighth for the rest of the game. Even in the last five games when their defense has played so well, the Patriots have gone from -9.0% DVOA in the first quarter to -50.5% DVOA for the rest of the game, although obviously the snow showing up in the second half in Denver was part of this. The Seahawks offense was also better in the first quarter. Including the playoffs, the Seahawks were third in DVOA in the first quarter and then 10th the rest of the game.
When the Patriots Have the Ball
The biggest danger for the Patriots in this game is that Drake Maye will continue to struggle against top defenses. During the regular season, Maye played only one game against a defense in the top 10 for pass defense DVOA, Cleveland. He played well in that game, going 18-for-24 for 282 yards with three touchdowns and a pick. However, he has not played as well in the postseason against three top defenses. Obviously, there are some extenuating (and snowy) circumstances, but Maye has gone from completing 70% of his passes with 8.0 yards per attempt in the regular season to 56% of passes with 6.9 yards per attempt in the postseason. He’s also been sacked five times in each playoff game.
Now here comes the best defense that Maye has faced, or that anyone has faced, all year. The Seahawks were the top defense against both the run and the pass by DVOA.
There are still some splits that favor the Patriots, or at least make it look like their assignment is not as hard as it looks. For example, the Patriots were much better off this year when they used 11 personnel. They ranked second in the league with 27.8% DVOA out of 11 personnel. The Seahawks play almost exclusively in nickel because rookie Nick Emmanwori can switch between slot cornerback and linebacker depending on whether the Seahawks are expecting a run or a pass. However, the Seahawks were actually better against 12 or 21 personnel. They “only” had -19.7% DVOA against 11 personnel, which was third in the league, compared to being first against 12 or 21 personnel.
Maye is better off when the Seahawks use single-high safety coverage. He led the NFL with 41.4% DVOA against single-high during the regular season and had an impressive 10.4 yards per attempt. He was still good against two high safeties, but not quite as good: 17.2% DVOA, which ranked sixth. Unfortunately for Maye, the Seahawks used two high safeties 54.3% of the time, which ranked third in the league.
There’s no specific Seattle cornerback to target. Devon Witherspoon, Tariq Woolen and Josh Jobe all came out with coverage DVOA of -23.4% or lower this season. Emmanwori was at -13.1% as well.
Above, I noted the numbers above for Sam Darnold on in-breaking routes compared to out-breaking routes. Maye was good on both, but better on the in-breaking routes. He ranked fifth in DVOA on in-breaking routes and 10th on out-breaking routes. The Seahawks defense was fourth against in-breaking routes and third against out-breaking routes.
Drake Maye was sixth with 40.5% DVOA with the quick game but the Seahawks defense was No. 1 allowing only -9.3% DVOA to quick throws. The Seahawks were one of only two defenses to allow negative DVOA to quick throws during the regular season, along with Minnesota.
The Seahawks were susceptible this year on passes to tight ends. They allowed an opponent-adjusted 64 yards per game to tight ends during the regular season, ranking 16th in DVOA. They’ve allowed 134 yards to tight ends in two playoff games, although they also have an interception and two forced fumbles on those passes.
An important tidbit when facing Drake Maye: The Seahawks were second in the league in DVOA when the opposing quarterback scrambled, but they faced 43 scrambles which was near the top of the league. Including the playoffs, quarterbacks are averaging 6.9 yards per scramble with a 50% success rate (compared to league averages of 7.5 and 59%).
The most interesting thing about the Seattle run defense is that they rarely stack the box. It’s related to the constant nickel defense and the high amount of two high safeties that they play. Only San Francisco used fewer stacked boxes on opposition runs this year. And yet, the Seahawks still led the league in run defense DVOA. In fact, the Seahawks’ run defense DVOA during the regular season (-30.1%) was tied for the 14th-best run defense since 1978.
The Patriots ranked 11th in DVOA when running against a non-stacked box. Rhamondre Stevenson was 19th in avoided tackle rate according to FTN Data charting (23.8%), and TreVeyon Henderson was 31st (21.1%).
The best thing the Seahawks do in the run game is that they prevent explosives. Seattle allowed an explosive run (15 or more yards) on just 6.7% of carries, the best figure in the NFL. In the playoffs, they’ve allowed only one running back carry over 12 yards: a 19-yard run by Blake Corum in the second quarter of the NFC Championship Game. But the Seahawks aren’t just good at preventing the explosives; they ranked second in adjusted line yards during the regular season, behind only Tampa Bay, and they ranked third in success on short-yardage runs, allowing just 54% conversions, which was third. (The Patriots had just 60% conversions, which ranked 26th on offense.)
Based on adjusted line yards, the Patriots do have an advantage when they run to the right side. They rank seventh in ALY on runs listed as right tackle and fifth on runs listed as right end. Seattle’s defense is fifth on runs listed as right tackle but 17th on runs listed as right end.
The run concept the Patriots tend to use more often than other teams is man blocking, but Seattle ranked second in DVOA against man-blocking runs. The Seahawks were “only” 13th against power runs; that’s the power blocking concept (a pulling lineman) rather than defining short-yardage runs as “power.”
Special Teams
Seattle has a clear advantage on special teams, but not as big as the advantage they had over the Rams two weeks ago. The Patriots were roughly average in special teams DVOA. They are very good on punt returns with Marcus Jones, who was chosen second-team All-Pro. But they have real problems on kickoffs and punts. Punter Bryce Baringer was particularly bad against Denver in the AFC Championship Game. Andy Borregales was fine on field goals but the Patriots’ gross kickoff value was the second lowest in the league ahead of only the Rams. Seattle shines in kickoff coverage, on punts with Michael Dickson, and on kickoff and punt returns with Rashid Shaheed. Including the playoffs, Shaheed has a punt return touchdown and two kick return touchdowns in 11 games since coming to Seattle.
Outlook
I feel like my job with this year’s Super Bowl is to explain to people that both teams are better than they think they are. If the Seahawks lose the Super Bowl, they will become the second-best regular-season team by DVOA to lose in the final game, surpassing the 2023 49ers and sitting only behind the 2007 Patriots. They really have been that good this year. At the same time, the Patriots have been so much better in the last couple of months, with those first couple of games way back in the rearview mirror, that they provide the Seahawks with a very worthy opponent. This is not the Rams and the Patriots after the 2001 season. Yes, the Patriots had a very easy regular-season schedule, but they are not just lucky to be here.
The playoff odds simulation equation puts the Seahawks at about 60% chance to win this game, and that sounds accurate to me. That would translate into a three-point spread, a little smaller than the one that we actually see in this game. It’s more likely that the Seahawks finish off their spectacular year with a championship on Sunday night. But there’s definitely a good chance of the Patriots taking home No. 7.
