ne at 5 pm London time Thursday, which would require an offer or a walk-away, though RBC thinks an extension is likely.
Why should I care?
For markets: Deal math hinges on who pays the price.
RBC pencils a possible offer around £5.82 a share, implying a sizable premium and potential upside for Glencore. But it warns the tougher test is Rio’s side: investors have been assuming $4–6 billion of synergies, and RBC argues closer to $10–15 billion may be needed to avoid diluting value for Rio shareholders. That sets a high bar for any rally in Rio if a bid materializes.
Zooming out: Mining mega-deals need credible earnings not just scale.
This story is part fundamentals, part optionality. Upgraded profit forecasts suggest the market is rewarding operational execution, not only commodity-price swings. But the focus on a deadline extension shows how scrutinized large mining tie-ups have become – investors want numbers they can underwrite, especially when synergy targets run into the tens of billions.
