Amid Epstein fallout, Keir Starmer faces leadership heat as Shabana Mahmood emerges as frontrunner. Who is she?

As pressure mounts on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, speculation in Westminster is intensifying over who could take the reins if his leadership falters. Among the names gaining traction is Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, widely regarded as a serious contender to lead the Labour Party, a development that could see Britain appoint its first Muslim prime minister. The renewed talk follows the fallout from the recently released Epstein files, which have triggered political tremors across Europe and beyond.

Who is Shabana Mahmood?

Shabana Mahmood, 45, is a barrister-turned-politician and one of Starmer’s trusted allies. Known within Labour as a compelling orator with a strong political drive, she is often associated with the party’s right flank. Born in Birmingham, Mahmood pursued law at Lincoln College, Oxford, graduating in 2002. She completed her Bar Vocational Course at the Inns of Court School of Law the following year, qualifying as a barrister. Her political breakthrough came in 2010 when she entered Parliament alongside Rushanara Ali and Yasmin Qureshi, becoming one of the UK’s first Muslim women MPs. Since taking charge of the Home Office in 2025, she has overseen critical portfolios, including border security.

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A tough stance on migration

Mahmood’s background and political stance give her a distinctive appeal, though critics have occasionally labelled this dual positioning contradictory. As a Muslim leader, she is seen by some as capable of reconnecting with pro-Palestine voters who distanced themselves from Labour over its support for Israel’s military campaign. Yet her policy approach has been notably firm, especially on immigration. She recently introduced contentious proposals to restrict the route to permanent residency, or indefinite leave to remain, insisting that settlement should be viewed as a “privilege rather than an automatic entitlement.”

Starmer under fire over Epstein-linked controversy

Attention on Mahmood has intensified amid one of the most turbulent periods of Starmer’s premiership. The crisis erupted after Peter Mandelson’s appointment as ambassador to Washington drew scrutiny due to his historical links to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein. Matters escalated further when Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, stepped down, accepting responsibility for the appointment, a move intended to shield the prime minister. However, several Labour MPs argue that accountability ultimately lies with Starmer himself.

Who are the other frontrunners besides Shabana?

Mahmood is not alone in the leadership conversation. Several prominent Labour figures are also being discussed:

• Angela Rayner: The former deputy prime minister remains the bookmakers’ favourite. Despite resigning last September amid a tax probe related to a property purchase, she continues to enjoy strong backing from Labour’s left and has pushed the government into reversing decisions linked to Mandelson.
• Wes Streeting: The health secretary is viewed as media-savvy and ambitious. However, his association with Mandelson and support for private-sector participation in the NHS have alienated parts of the party’s progressive base.
• Ed Miliband: Once Labour leader, Miliband is experiencing a political revival. Popular among the “soft left,” he still carries the shadow of the party’s defeat in the 2015 general election.
• Andy Burnham: The Greater Manchester mayor is well-liked but faces a procedural obstacle; he is not currently an MP. While parliamentary rules allow a non-member to become prime minister temporarily, securing a Commons seat would be essential.

Where Mahmood stands

Mahmood’s ascent is rooted in her reputation for decisiveness and discipline, qualities some within Labour believe are necessary to win back voters drifting toward Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Her flagship proposal seeks to extend the qualifying period for permanent residency for most migrant workers from five years to ten. She has justified the move by pointing to what she calls an “unprecedented” surge in migration that demands firm policy action.

The proposal has, however, unsettled colleagues. Roughly 40 Labour MPs have criticised the retrospective nature of the changes, calling them “un-British” and likening them to shifting the goalposts. Critics such as MP Rachael Maskell warn the policy could deepen skills shortages, particularly in healthcare. Beyond immigration, Mahmood has taken assertive positions on policing and security, rejecting demands for devolved Welsh police powers and backing the nationwide deployment of facial recognition technology despite civil liberties concerns.

What are her chances?

Bookmakers currently assign Mahmood odds of 9/1, roughly translating to a 10% likelihood of securing the leadership. Still, her perceived ability to appeal to both the party’s right wing and Muslim voters positions her as a credible dark horse. For Mahmood to mount a successful bid, Starmer would need to step down or face a leadership challenge supported by at least 81 Labour MPs, equivalent to 20% of the parliamentary party. Whether she can convert the present turmoil into a political opportunity may hinge on public reaction to her immigration agenda and her capacity to present herself as a firm yet steady alternative at a time of uncertainty.