Live updates: Clipper dumps snow on the Northeast as new cross-country storm targets the South
Analysis: February to finish with increasing threat of severe weather in the South
A dramatic atmospheric shift is expected to finish February on a stormy note, as the FOX Forecast Center monitors an increasing threat of severe weather across the Deep South. Following a period of record-breaking cold, a major pattern change is now funneling mild, moisture-rich air from the Gulf of America northward, setting the stage for potential thunderstorms later this week. Long-range climate indicators suggest that a broader, more significant severe weather threat could emerge during the final third of February.
Several high-level atmospheric factors are converging to potentially turn the South into a more active battleground for severe storms later this month. A weakening La Niña is expected to transition toward an ENSO-neutral state as we move through late February into early March. This transition often leads to more volatile weather patterns as the jet stream becomes less predictable.
Long-range models indicate a highly amplified trough will establish itself along the West Coast by mid-February. This setup favors the development of multiple low-pressure systems that will eventually track across the High Plains and into the Deep South.
And the Pacific-North American (PNA) index is forecast to become sharply negative and persist in that phase through late February. For the South, a negative PNA often correlates with a more active storm track and a better chance for Gulf moisture to surge northward.
The FOX Forecast Center says the February 21-28 timeframe points to a potentially “rainy” and more dynamic period for the Deep South. While individual storm timing remains uncertain this far out, several ingredients are likely to become more prevalent.
While this week’s storm will bring much-needed rain and a few claps of thunder, the more organized severe potential—including the risk of damaging winds or hail—appears to be trending toward the end of the month as spring-like heat begins to clash with retreating winter air. We will continue to monitor the long-range signals for any signs of a major severe weather outbreak.
