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Need to Know
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Course Insights: The Champion’s Hole at Pebble Beach
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Written by Paul Hodowanic
The PGA TOUR’s first Signature Event of the season is on tap this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, meaning it’s the first tournament of the year with all the top stars competing together.
Some have played – and succeeded – already this season. Scottie Scheffler won his debut start at The American Express. Some have yet to debut, like Rory McIlroy. Others are still searching for last year’s form that earned them a tee time at Pebble Beach, like Collin Morikawa or Keegan Bradley.
This week will be a barometer for the varying stages those stars are currently in, as they start fresh with another long season ahead. But the first month of the season has been indicative of plenty of trends worth watching this week and throughout the season. Big questions have already emerged about some of the top stars. Some could be answered this week, and others will take more time to parse out. So as the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am gets underway, what are the biggest questions looming over some of the game’s top stars?
Can Rory McIlroy challenge Scottie Scheffler?
There’s no denying Rory McIlroy has been a top-two player on TOUR the last several seasons. It also can’t be denied that he hasn’t been No. 1.
McIlroy sits in limbo – a position of envy to anybody who isn’t him, but an incredibly motivating one for the best player of his generation who is keen to remain at the top of the sport. Most would kill to be second-best, particularly when No. 1 is another generational talent on a trajectory few are capable of reaching. McIlroy just happens to be one who can, and still could reach that trajectory.
The question then becomes, will he? Can McIlroy challenge Scheffler as the sport’s best player in the world in 2026? Or is he more likely to fall closer to the rest of the pack?
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‘He’s really the first one since Tiger that’s doing this’: Rory McIlroy on Scottie Scheffler’s consistency
Already this season, Scheffler won The American Express convincingly and nearly won the WM Phoenix Open despite playing a disastrous first round (for his standards). He’s showing no signs of slowing down. In a scary twist, there actually seems to be more room to improve (through two weeks, Scheffler’s worst statistical category is approach play, historically his best quality).
McIlroy is just beginning his season at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Both have played well on the Monterey Peninsula. McIlroy won the event last year. Scheffler has two top 10s in his previous two trips. McIlroy could make a statement early if he picks off this tournament again, or goes down to Los Angeles and picks off The Genesis Invitational at The Riviera Country Club, a course he has yet to master. Ultimately, it will come down to who performs best in the biggest events – Signature Events, THE PLAYERS Championship and majors. Our first indicator will come this week.
Can Collin Morikawa find a putting solution?
Let’s start here: Collin Morikawa has never been an elite putter on TOUR. Even when he was winning majors and ascending to No. 2 in the world, the best he was considered was slightly above average.
But there’s a difference between consistently being an above-average putter week in and week out and being able to conjure it for a week or two and capitalizing with top results. That was how Morikawa earned his keep, and he showed it’s a viable path to becoming the world’s best. That’s also what kept him from maintaining the strong form he had early last season.
Morikawa has had just one positive week on the greens since the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday last May. That was at The Open Championship, where his ball-striking abandoned him and he missed the cut anyway. Morikawa has been in the red ever since.
Can Hideki Matsuyama quickly squash driver issues?
Hideki Matsuyama’s playoff loss at the WM Phoenix Open last week can be solely blamed on his struggles off the tee.
Matsuyama hit just two fairways on Sunday, and his two most important tee shots, the 18th in regulation and again the playoff, were illustrative of the broader struggles that sunk his hopes of a third victory in Phoenix. He missed way left on both occasions; the first landed in the bunker, which he was unable to clear, and then the next dropped in the water and all but ended his chances.
Every shot from playoff at WM Phoenix Open
The raw data supported how it looked. Matsuyama lost more than three strokes to the field off the tee in the final round. At first, it looks like a blip. A confluence of factors – new equipment, nerves and deteriorating confidence – that led to a disastrous outcome. A fluke. But Matsyuama’s underlying driver metrics have trended downward since the middle of last season. He’s been a below-average driver since the Rocket Classic last June. That trend, plus the out-of-body Sunday at the WM Phoenix Open, points toward larger issues. And after a week like the last, the quicker he can put a band-aid on it and stop any further loss of confidence, the better.
Can Jordan Spieth find it at his favorite TOUR stop?
Jordan Spieth’s start is hard to gauge. He debuted at the Sony Open in Hawaii and strung together four solid, but not spectacular, rounds to finish T24. Afterwards, he praised progress, feeling comfortable after an offseason of work dedicated to returning to the bones of the swing that helped him climb to world No. 1.
“I felt like I did a lot of things really well this week,” Spieth said. “The few things that I didn’t, I’ll go improve on.”
That optimism was welcome as he turned his attention toward the WM Phoenix Open, historically one of Spieth’s best tournaments. But after an opening round of 70, Spieth collapsed on his back nine. He played his final eight holes in 4-over to miss the cut by four strokes.
Jordan Spieth’s winning highlights from 2017 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Now he returns to Pebble Beach, again one of his favorite stops. He won the event in 2017, finished runner-up in 2022 and has four other top 10s here in his career. In some cases, it’s the only other venue other than Augusta that Spieth has been able to show up and play well, regardless of form. Can he do that this week? It would be a sign Spieth is on the right track. That’s what the legion of his fans is hoping for. It’s also needed for Spieth himself, who began the year with optimism that his best golf in a decade is right around the corner. That optimism will begin to erode if he has another poor week at one of his favorite venues.
Which Xander Schauffele should we expect?
Xander Schauffele had a built-in excuse last year. A rib injury derailed the start to his season and kept him from truly getting into the flow of the season. He sputtered to start the year, and despite a series of solid results, was never able to push himself into the throes of contention.
That changed in October when he won the Baycurrent Classic, his last start of 2025, and signaled the old Schauffele was on the rise. The sample size is small, but that has not carried over into the new year yet. Schauffele snapped the longest active cut streak on TOUR when he failed to make the weekend at the Farmers Insurance Open. He played Phoenix last week and made the cut, but had to fight back with a Sunday 65 just to finish in a tie for 41st.
All-access with Xander Schauffele after Baycurrent win
So that begs the question: which version of Schauffele should we expect this season? He’s fully healthy and had a full offseason to prep, though the birth of his son understandably kept his attention divided. There’s ample opportunity for Schauffele to re-emerge as a legitimate, every-week contender to Scheffler and McIlroy, capable of entering their orbit. He did that in 2024 when he won two major championships after years of coming up short. It would surprise few if he returned to that form. But there’s no guarantee he will get back to that level. Few can sustain it for long stretches of time. Injury kept him from maintaining it last year. Can he fight back in 2026?
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Feb 12, 2026
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: How to watch season’s first Signature Event
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