Long Beach State Beach vs. Cal State Fullerton Titans prediction, pick for NCAAM on Thursday 2/12/26

Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Long Beach State Beach and the Cal State Fullerton Titans.

Big West nights like this feel loud before the ball even tips. Cal State Fullerton walks in at 12-13 and 7-6 in league play, very much alive in the middle tier, while Long Beach State sits 9-16 and 5-8, trying to defend its home floor and salvage momentum. The board says -1.5 and 156.5, which tells you everything about the shape: this is not a grind-it-out chess match. This is a pace game, a run game, and a foul-window game, and the team that controls the chaos probably controls the result. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Long Beach State Beach and the Cal State Fullerton Titans.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The math starts with tempo because Fullerton is one of the fastest teams in the country at 77.8 possessions per game, while Long Beach plays at 72.3. Split the difference and you’re staring at roughly 75 possessions, which is a huge runway for points. Neither defense is built to choke that runway. Fullerton allows 1.065 points per possession and a 54.7% opponent eFG, while Long Beach allows 1.085 and a 56.0% opponent eFG. That is an over-friendly pairing before we even talk about whistles. Fullerton generates free points at a 0.400 FTA/FGA clip and shoots 75.5% at the line, while Long Beach sits at 0.363 FTA/FGA and 70.7%. In a high-possession game, that many trips to the stripe keeps the scoreboard moving even when the jumper stalls.

The possession math is where this gets volatile. Long Beach forces turnovers on 20.1% of defensive trips and turns games into sprints, but it also allows a 34.2% opponent offensive rebounding rate, which is near the bottom of Division I. That means stops are rarely clean. Fullerton’s offense coughs it up 18.0% of the time, which is dangerous in this building, but it also fires 25.3 threes per game and hits 36.1%. If Long Beach overextends into pressure, Marcell McCreary and the Titans’ wings will punish the help. On the other side, Long Beach’s 29.4% offensive rebounding rate and 33.3% three-point shooting create the exact kind of mini-runs that flip a one-possession spread in three minutes. This game has too many second chances and too many extra possessions to stay quiet for long.

The tempo shows up in the way Cal State Fullerton spreads its scoring across multiple creators who all play starter minutes. Joshua Ward is the hub at 14.4 points in 31.3 minutes with 3.2 assists, while Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro (13.0 points, 29.5 minutes) and Landon Seaman (12.3 points on 55.6% shooting) give them two more scoring lanes that don’t need perfect sets. Christian Williams adds the disruption edge with 1.9 steals per game, and when he gets hot he has already shown a six-three ceiling in a game this season. On the other side, Long Beach State’s scoring is even more “track-meet friendly,” because it’s led by Gavin Sykes at 18.2 points per game, with Petar Majstorovic at 15.4 and Rob Diaz III at 12.2, plus Majstorovic living at 89.7% at the line as a late-game stabilizer. That balance has shown up recently too: in the 77–74 loss at UC San Diego, Shaquil Bender scored 22, Majstorovic had 19 on 10 free throw attempts, Diaz III had 18, and Long Beach still produced 74 points on just 54 shot attempts because it went 17-for-20 at the line.

Cal State Fullerton vs. Long Beach State pick, best bet

Fullerton’s own game log has shown both shapes recently, with a 78–72 win at UC Riverside that featured a huge 32 free throw attempts, and an 82–66 win over CSU Bakersfield where the Titans attempted 31 threes, which is the kind of volume that can either spike the total or freeze it if the lid goes on. The cleaner why points can still win argument is that Long Beach State is comfortable playing through contact and still keeping the scoring distributed, and Fullerton’s top four scorers all average double figures, so the offense doesn’t die when one option gets chased off a first action. The honest warning label is the prior meeting: Long Beach State beat Fullerton 71–61 on Jan. 22, a reminder that this matchup can compress when the shot quality turns choppy.

I’m on the over 156.5 and comfortable to 158.5. This loses if both teams go cold from three at the same time and the turnover chaos becomes empty instead of productive.

Predicted score: Cal State Fullerton 82, Long Beach State 79.

Best bet: Cal State Fullerton vs. Long Beach State o156.5 total points (-110)

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