Draws and Fades: Don’t get comfortable with incoming weather at AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

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Draws and Fades: Don't get comfortable with incoming weather at AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

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Draws and Fades

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Highlights | Round 2 | AT&T Pebble Beach | 2026

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Written by Brad Thomas

Ryo Hisatsune (+550) remains atop the leaderboard after another sharp round at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but he now shares the lead with Akshay Bhatia (+380), who posted an 8-under 64 on Friday. Rickie Fowler (+550) matched that number at Spyglass Hill Golf Course for his lowest round ever on that course, while Sam Burns (+650) sits just one stroke off the lead alongside him.

Ryo Hisatsune hits 141-yard approach to 11 feet, sets up birdie on No. 9 at AT&T Pebble Beach

As the tournament says goodbye to both the amateurs and Spyglass Hill, the field shifts exclusively to Pebble Beach for the final two rounds. With a tightly packed leaderboard heading into the weekend, a wide range of contenders remain within striking distance, and this tournament is far from settled.

Scoring has been low through the opening two rounds, particularly at Spyglass Hill, which played nearly 2.5 strokes under par in the second round. That number is well below its historical average and was driven largely by rather tame conditions. Morning winds stayed under 10 mph for much of the day before settling into the 8 to 12 mph range in the afternoon with only modest gusts for Pebble Beach standards.

Don’t get comfortable yet. The weather is coming, and chaos could ensue.

Saturday’s forecast calls for overcast conditions with wind expected to build into the afternoon. Gusts could approach 25 mph by the end of the day and potentially strengthen further on Sunday. That adds volatility for those trying to protect their positions near the top and opens the door for players further back, like Scottie Scheffler (+3000), currently nine strokes off the pace, to begin making up ground if the afternoon wave gets the worst of the weather.

Rory McIlroy, Top 10 (+125 FanDuel)

Rory McIlroy (+2200) enters the weekend at T17, but he’s just one stroke outside the top 10 after opening rounds of 68 and 67. His week hasn’t been clean by any stretch of the imagination. He had a pair of double bogeys on the front nine in Round 1, but managed to keep himself in position thanks to his aggression off the tee.

Rory McIlroy sinks 4-foot birdie putt on No. 18 at AT&T Pebble Beach

That works for McIlroy. He has consistently leaned on driver in spots where much of the field has clubbed down, giving him a massive advantage when he finds the fairway. Statistically, his ball striking has been incredible. He’s gained +2.71 strokes on average, which is third best in the field. The lone issue has been the putter, where he’s lost just over a stroke through two rounds.

McIlroy isn’t a bad putter. He ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting. If he can simply get back to neutral on the greens, his tee-to-green advantage gives him a legitimate chance to climb the board.

Jake Knapp, End of Round 3 Top 10 (-112 DraftKings)

Jake Knapp sits at 11-under and inside the top 10 through 36 holes following a 5-under round at Pebble Beach on Friday. While his overall stat line may not immediately stand out, his recent form has my attention. He’s now logged finishes of T11 at the Sony Open, T5 at the Farmers Insurance Open, and solo eighth at the WM Phoenix Open to begin the season.

In those events, he’s been a beast off the tee.

Jake Knapp hits 137-yard approach to 5 feet, sets up birdie on No. 9 at AT&T Pebble Beach

Knapp has gained +1.9, +3.1, and +4.1 strokes off the tee in his last three starts and continued that trend early this week. He hit 11 of 14 fairways in Round 1 with an average driving distance just shy of 296 yards. In Round 2, he opened by hitting all seven fairways on the front nine, including drives of 320 and 373 yards. Even when he began to miss on the back, the damage was limited. He didn’t make a single bogey on a hole where he missed the fairway.

Targeting the Round 3 Top 10 market isolates where he’s been the strongest this season. Through his first three starts, Knapp has gained an average of +1.93 strokes in the third round alone, much of that coming with the putter. Pair his driving advantage with what is likely an improving feel on the greens, and he becomes a threat for another big weekend.

Playing this over his tournament finish protects us from the potentially worsening Sunday conditions.

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Feb 13, 2026