BYU looks to complete a 2-0 week when they welcome Colorado to the Marriott Center Saturday afternoon. BYU picked up a much needed win at Baylor Tuesday and will look for a comfortable win on Valentine’s Day. This game is also Jimmer Fredette’s jersey retirement ceremony, so the crowd should have some extra juice.
This is BYU’s easiest remaining game; A Quad 3 game before BYU finishes with five Quad 1 games and a Quad 2 game.
The game tips off at 2:00 MT on FS1.
BYU and Colorado by the Numbers
Record: 14-11 (4-8 Big 12)
Best Wins: Providence (H), Washington (N), Arizona State (A/H), Utah (H), TCU (H)
Losses: Colorado State (A), Stanford (A), Northern Colorado (H), Texas Tech (H/A), Cincinnati (A), West Virginia (A), Kansas (H), UCF (H), Iowa State (A), Baylor (A)
Record: 18-6 (6-5 Big 12)
KenPom Prediction: BYU 90, Colorado 76 — BYU 90% win probability
After a 12-3 start to the season and 2-0 in Big 12 play, Colorado is 2-8 in their last ten games. The Buffs are 1-5 in true road games and have dropped their last 5, losing anywhere between 9 and 34 points. They’ve lost their last three road games by 30, 19, and 34 points.
The Buffs are the youngest team in the Big 12, playing just one senior and up to eight true freshmen in their rotation.
As a team, they are middle of the road in offensive rankings in Big 12 play and towards the bottom in defensive metrics. Baylor is one of the most turnover-prone teams in the Big 12, but Colorado is one of the best at taking care of the basketball (#4 Big 12 turnover percentage). Shooting metrics are in the bottom half of the league and Colorado isn’t great on the offensive glass.
Defensively, Colorado has had some rough outings. They are #336 nationally in three-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot 37% from three. They are also foul prone and teams in Big 12 play have success at getting to the foul line.
Isaiah Johnson, Guard — The 6-foot-1 guard is the least talked about freshman in the Big 12. Johnson leads Colorado in scoring (16.1 ppg) with 50/39/81 splits. He averages only 2.5 assists, but does a great job at scoring from all levels of the floor and gets the foul line over 6 times per game. He’s scored in double figures every Big 12 game and has a season high of 25 points.
Barrington Hargress, Guard — The junior guard is also 6-foot-1 and teams with Johnson to form a formidable scoring backcourt. He’s second on the team in scoring (13.9 ppg) and leads the team in assists (4.3). Hargress shoots 54% from the floor and 48% from three on three attempts per game. BYU saw Hargress last season when he was teammates with Nate Pickens at UC Irvine; he scored 16 points.
Bangot Dak, Forward/Center — Dak is an athletic big man, listed at 7-feet and 203 pounds. Dak averages 10.4 points and leads Colorado in rebounds (6.5) and blocks (1.4). He had double-digit rebounds in each of Colorado’s first three Big 12 games, but hasn’t had double-digit boards since.
Sebastian Rancik, Forward — Rancik is 6-foot-11 and pairs with Dak to give Colorado a big starting frontcourt. Rancik averages 12.6 points and can stretch the floor, shooting 36% from three on four attempts per game.
Colorado is in a rut. They’ve lost 8 of 10 and head coach Tad Boyle blasted the team after Wednesday’s 78-44 loss at Texas Tech. That loss and response from Boyle could be a kick for the team to perform better, but it also may be a larger sign of a disjointed team that is limping to the finish line.
BYU’s defense has not shown many signs of promise the last month, and Colorado has some offensive pieces that can put up points on BYU. BYU has won only one Big 12 game by more than 13 points — a 28-point win versus Arizona State — and I think BYU could win this by 20+ points.
I think Colorado will really struggle to slow BYU down. They have a big frontline, but the team has not been overly effective in blocking shots. They have a small backcourt, and I think AJ and Rob will have success at the rim. BYU exploited Baylor’s lack of length and I think they will do the same to Colorado.
Offensively Colorado will likely have some moments, but I think the emergence of Khadim Mboup versus Baylor will be a recipe for BYU moving forward that will improve BYU’s defense.
I’ll take BYU big behind a spirted crowd for Jimmer’s jersey retirement.
Prediction: BYU 92, Colorado 72
