Former Kia MVPs Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić have their squads in the top half of the West standings.
There’s often a tendency to label the post-All-Star break as the dog days of the regular season schedule, although this can also be misleading to a point. What if these dog days have bark?
The season isn’t over, and in some respects, a segment of the season is just beginning. There’s still so much up for grabs, so much unsettled, so much at stake. And it’ll require a month or maybe more to resolve.
The stretch run is where the championship contenders separate themselves from the pack and where the gap begins to expand between playoff hopefuls. Or maybe those gaps don’t expand; maybe they need an 82nd game.
These are the 10 pressing issues and developments waiting to be unraveled between now and mid-April — if not beyond:
1. Jayson Tatum’s Decision
This is by far the most substantial stretch-run must-see because of its obvious, far-reaching implications. If Tatum announces a return to the Boston Celtics— and even more, displays little to no rust — it could disrupt the power structure of the East and the league as well.
That’s how much Tatum, star of the 2024 championship run and All-NBA player out since injuring his Achilles last spring, means to the Celtics and how much a difference-maker of his magnitude can make in the playoffs. With a boost from Jaylen Brown, the Celtics are flourishing anyway without Tatum, currently at 35-19 and in second place.
Tatum has begun light workouts in a clear indication of an attempted return. If that happens, it must take place no later than March; Tatum would require multiple tune-ups to prepare for the intensity of the playoffs.
Brown said Tatum is “checking off all the right boxes,” and Kevin Durant, who successfully returned from the same injury five years ago, has high hopes for Tatum.
“I expect to see All-Star level play and the same Jayson Tatum we’ve seen before he was injured,” Durant said. “Usually around this time, you’re playing a lot of five-on-five, playing against live bodies, just trying to get your rhythm and tempo back. So I’m looking forward to seeing him get out there with his team.”
2. OKC at Full Strength
The 2025-26 season has been a unique one, to say the least, for the defending champion Thunder. They ripped through a 24-1 start and created comparisons with the 73-win Warriors. On the flip side, they’ve been spooked by the San Antonio Spurs, who have beaten OKC four times.
Through it all, OKC has never been fully healthy, with Jalen Williams missing 30 games, Isaiah Hartenstein 16 straight from December through January and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander the last five.
That’s about to change, and just in time. Williams is starting to regain his timing following off-season wrist surgery; Hartenstein is back from a calf strain and Shai’s abdominal injury was never projected to keep him from the lineup for a substantial stretch.
With a complete rotation that features the reigning MVP, solid defense and stretchy depth that added Jared McCain at the trade deadline, can the Thunder finish the season the way they started it and ride that momentum into the playoffs?
3. Denver Looking for Dominance
An off-season of change helped reshape the Nuggets and position them for another attempted takeover of the West, helped largely by three-time MVP Nikola Jokić. That process remains on hold, though, because the Nuggets are still trying to find their footing and traction.
Jokić missed nearly a month after suffering a hyperextended knee, and the Nuggets’ rhythm has been off since his return; Denver is just 3-5 (although one loss was in overtime and two others were by a combined five points). While they’re getting positive play from Peyton Watson in an upgraded role, Aaron Gordon won’t be re-evaluated for another few weeks for his hamstring injury.
So, the Nuggets aren’t whole just yet. However, there’s upside. They’re on the clock, though, because the West is loaded and the margin for error just shrank.
4. The Cleveland Connection
Donovan Mitchell’s new backcourt running partner is James Harden and the honeymoon is blissful. The Cavs are undefeated in three games with Harden and are displaying a different dynamic.
Harden is ninth on the all-time career scoring list yet seems more willing to rely on his passing skills, and perhaps justifiably so. Mitchell is a high-volume shooter and the other Cavs — Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in particular — require a creator. Harden is very good in that role; he worked wonders with Ivica Zubac with the Clippers, turning Zubac into a primary scoring option. Harden is averaging over nine assists with the Cavs.
This represents a major philosophical change by a contender in the middle of the season. Usually, these hasty transitional situations either don’t work or require more time. In this case, Harden might just be what Mitchell and the Cavs ordered.
5. The Hornets’ Hum
If there were an award for emerging out of nowhere, then the Charlotte Hornets would be a runaway winner. This team was dormant and stuck in the mud until right after the holidays. Suddenly the switch flipped and the Hornets took themselves out of the draft lottery conversation, and here they are, in the thick of play-in territory and rising.
The surprise is that the Hornets have done this without a major acquisition at the trade deadline. Their development is strictly the result of in-house growth and obviously the immediate impact of Kon Knueppel, a favorite for Rookie of the Year and already one of the league’s best shooters.
LaMelo Ball is healthy and frisky. Charlotte has four players who can get 20 or more points a night — Ball, Knueppel, Brandon Miller, and Miles Bridges. The Hornets have won 10 of their last 11 with signature wins over the Spurs and Rockets. A seven-game home stand next month will tell; the Knicks, Sixers and Celtics (perhaps with Tatum) will pay a visit to an arena that’s suddenly swelling with noise.
6. The Bucks Try to Bounce Back
It wasn’t too long ago when the Bucks seemed on the verge of collapse. The season started poorly, Myles Turner’s impact was marginal at best, they lost nine of 10 and then Giannis Antetokounmpo gave off weird vibes leading up to the trade deadline and while tending to a calf injury.
Giannis wasn’t swapped at the deadline and the best the Bucks could do to improve the roster was sift through the bargain bin and add some players on the cheap.
Well, Cam Thomas and Ousmane Dieng seem like perfect fits for a team that needed scoring and an emerging young talent. Meanwhile, Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. are still making the most of their upgraded roles in the rotation.
Giannis is due back any day from his injury. He remains a premier talent, and if he blends with his new surroundings, the Bucks, winners of five of their last six games without Giannis, could be a team no one wants to see in the playoffs. Provided Milwaukee gets there, of course.
7. MVP Race
There’s an interesting game on April 10, a final week tip-off that otherwise would seem relatively meaningless for two teams headed for the playoffs. Except: It’s OKC vs. Denver, meaning Shai vs. Jokić. Might the MVP race still be a toss-up at such a late stage?
Shai and Jokić are front-runners at the moment. Others are in the mix as well, but this race appears to be a carbon copy of last season’s when Shai emerged as the winner, mainly because OKC ran away with the best record in the West. There’s no such cushion this time between the teams. Therefore, suspense awaits.
8. Rookie Race
Has Cooper Flagg wrapped up the Rookie of the Year award? It appears so. There’s an argument that Flagg should’ve been the first rookie since Blake Griffin to make the All-Star Game (he didn’t, despite averaging 20 points and six rebounds). That’s how impactful he is for the Dallas Mavericks, and why the Mavs have already taken steps (trading Anthony Davis) to begin the process of building around their new centerpiece.
It will be Flagg or his Duke teammate, Knueppel, who’s averaging 19 points and shooting 43% from deep, taking honors. Actually, the only question is this: Why didn’t Duke win the national title with those two?
9. Key Games in the Final Two Weeks
Several teams will get pressed in the stretch run because they’ll either be boxing out for playoff seeding, trying to avoid the play-in tournament or trying to make the play-in cut.
Because of that, there’s almost guaranteed to be drama right before the close of the regular season. Here are four games to circle:
- Pistons at Thunder, Mar. 30: Will these teams still hold a lead in their respective conferences? Being a top seed has its rewards.
- Spurs and Cavs at Warriors, April 1 and 2: This back-to-back could serve as the last stand for Stephen Curry, this season anyway, as the Warriors try to make a playoff push. They’re currently in eighth place and seemingly locked in the play-in tournament at the moment.
- Rockets at Suns, April 7: Durant will see his old mates in a game that might drip with implications. Both Houston and Phoenix, along with others, are flirting with the sixth-place cutoff for guaranteed playoff spots; the Suns and Rockets are currently separated by two games in the West.
- Celtics at Knicks, April 9: These rivals are currently ranked second and third in the East. Remember, the second seed has home court advantage until the conference finals, and maybe even then, should the top seed tumble.
10. LeBron and the Lakers
Is the end approaching for a legend and a legendary franchise? LeBron James remains mum about his future plans; he can become a free agent this summer. Also, with a change in ownership, there has been no hint from the organization regarding where it stands on the subject.
So everything’s cloudy in LA. Also uncertain is the Lakers’ stretch run and how far it stretches. LeBron and Luka Dončić are All-Stars and the chemistry between the two seems fine. Austin Reaves is healthy again and impactful. But partly because of injuries, the Lakers haven’t given off contending vibes because defense and depth remain problematic.
“When we’ve played some of our best basketball of the season, we’ve looked very good,” he said. “On the other side, when we’ve been terrible, we’ve looked disgusting.”
Whenever the season ends in LA, only one question will beg for an answer: What next, LeBron?
“I want to live,” he said over the weekend. “When I know, you guys will know. I don’t know. I have no idea. I just want to live. That’s all.”
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Shaun Powell has covered the NBA since 1985. You can e-mail him at [email protected]m, find his archive here and follow him on X.
