TransUnion 2026 Originations Forecast Shows Continued Positive Momentum Amidst Moderate Expansion

 

TransUnion’s Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report saw originations gains as delinquencies edged up

Early signs of this forecasted originations growth can be seen when looking back to late 2025, where year-over-year (YoY) increases emerged across credit cards, unsecured personal loans and auto. At the same time, more consumers continued to drift away from the mid-level risk tiers and toward the highest and lowest risk tiers, reshaping portfolio dynamics for lenders. After remaining unchanged for the past several years, the median VantageScore® posted a YoY decline in Q4 2025, down 2 points to 711, signaling a subtle, but meaningful change in overall consumer credit health.

“After several years marked by credit behaviors influenced by stubbornly high inflation and elevated interest rates, we may be seeing signs of a return to more traditional growth,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “As these more typical patterns return, it’s more important than ever for lenders to leverage advanced tools, including trended data, to more accurately assess evolving risk profiles.”

To learn more about the latest consumer credit trends, register for the Q4 2025 Quarterly Credit Industry Insights Report webinar. Read on for more specific insights about credit cards, personal loans, auto loans and mortgages.

 

Bankcard originations surge as balances hold steady

Q4 2025 CIIR Credit Card Summary

• Bankcard originations rose 11.7% year‑over‑year in Q3 2025, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly increase and the strongest annual growth in three years. Growth was primarily driven by both the subprime and super prime segments.

·         Total balances grew 4.2% year‑over‑year in Q4 2025 to $1.15 trillion, with the pace of growth holding steady for the fourth consecutive quarter. Total new credit lines rose 9.2% year‑over‑year as issuers continued shifting toward more below‑prime accounts with lower initial credit limits to help manage risk.

• Consumer‑level delinquencies ticked up after four consecutive quarters of year‑over‑year improvement, though overall levels remain consistent with those seen in 2023. The 90+ days past due (DPD) delinquency rate on a consumer basis rose 2 basis points to 2.58%, remaining relatively flat over the last 3 years.

Instant Analysis

“Origination volume is expected to remain flat or experience slight seasonal declines next quarter, with a growing share shifting toward below‑prime consumers. The continued expansion of the bankcard market reflects strengthened originations across all risk tiers, reflecting a measured commitment to maintaining credit access for consumers throughout the risk spectrum. We anticipate that balances will hold their current pace of growth in the near term.”

– Paul Siegfried, senior vice president, credit card business leader at TransUnion

 

Q4 2025 Credit Card Trends

Credit Card Lending Metric (Bankcard)

Q4 2025

Q4 2024

Q4 2023

Q4 2022

Number of Credit Cards (Bankcards)

581.0 million

561.5 million

542.6 million

518.4 million

 Borrower-Level Delinquency Rate (90+ DPD)

2.58%

2.56%

2.59%

2.26%

Total Credit Card Balances

$1.15 Trillion

$1.11 Trillion

$1.05 Trillion

$931 billion

Average Debt Per Borrower

$6,715

$6,580

$6,360

$5,805

Number of Consumers Carrying a Balance

176.4 million

173.1 million

169.9 million

166.0 million

Prior Quarter Originations*

21.3 million

19.1 million

20.1 million

21.6 million

Average New Account Credit Lines*

$5,587

$5,702

$5,673

$5,226

Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database

*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.

For more credit card industry information, click here for episodes of Extra Credit: A Card and Banking Podcast by TransUnion. Click here for a credit card industry infographic.

 

Unsecured personal loan demand sets a new high as lenders navigate shifting risk

Q4 2025 CIIR Unsecured Personal Loan Summary

·         Unsecured personal loan originations reached a record 7.2M in Q3 2025, the second consecutive quarter of new highs. Subprime drove growth with a 32.5% YoY increase in originations, while near prime and super prime segments each rose 21.5%. FinTech lenders held a 42% share of originations, up from roughly one‑third a year earlier.

·         Total unsecured personal loan balances climbed to a record $276B in Q4 2025, held across 26.4M consumers carrying a balance. Subprime borrowers again led expansion with a 17% YoY increase. Despite record totals, average balances per consumer and per account remained flat YoY.

·         The consumer‑level 60+ days past due delinquency rate rose to 3.99% in Q4 2025 from 3.57% a year earlier, the largest YoY increase since early 2023 and consistent with late‑2022/2023 levels. Delinquency rose across all risk tiers, with subprime showing the sharpest increase at about half a percentage point. Even so, vintage data indicate new accounts originated in Q1 and Q2 2025 are going delinquent at a lower rate than in prior years, particularly within subprime.

Instant Analysis

“More Americans are turning to unsecured personal loans, and lenders are meeting that demand with stronger risk management. FinTechs remain the most active issuers, and even at elevated growth levels, especially among non‑prime borrowers, performance reflects disciplined underwriting and recalibrated risk strategies. Although account‑ and consumer‑level delinquency increased year over year, balance‑level performance held steady. Recent vintages also show newer subprime loans outperforming older cohorts, while super‑prime performance has deteriorated slightly.”

–  Josh Turnbull, senior vice president, consumer lending business leader at TransUnion

Q4 2025 Unsecured Personal Loan Trends

Personal Loan Metric

Q4 2025

Q4 2024

Q4 2023

Q4 2022

Total Balances

$276 billion

$251 billion

$245 billion

$222 billion

Number of Unsecured Personal Loans

32.7 million

29.6 million

28.1 million

27.0 million

Number of Consumers with Unsecured Personal Loans

26.4 million

24.5 million

23.5 million

22.5 million

 Borrower-Level Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD)

3.99%

3.57%

3.90%

4.14%

Average Debt Per Borrower

$11,699

$11,607

$11,773

$11,116

Average Account Balance

$8,421

$8,496

$8,704

$8,195

Prior Quarter Originations*

7.2 million

5.8 million

5.0 million

5.6 million

Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database

*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.

Click here for additional unsecured personal loan industry metrics. Click here for an unsecured personal loan industry infographic.

 

Mortgage and home equity originations see gains as delinquencies edge up

Q4 2025 CIIR Mortgage Loan Summary

·         Mortgage originations rose 6.5% YoY in Q3 2025 to 1.34M, supported by increased purchase demand and stronger refinance activity. Purchase mortgage volume grew 4.2% YoY and made up roughly 80% of all originations, slightly below last year’s 82.1%. Rate‑and‑term refinances jumped 25.7% YoY, marking their eighth straight quarter of growth.

·         Home‑equity originations increased 14.3% YoY in Q3 2025 to 714K, the sixth consecutive quarter of expansion. HELOCs rose 15.8% YoY to 352K, also the sixth straight quarterly gain, with Gen X and Baby Boomers representing the largest borrower segments at 38% and 30%. HELOAN volume climbed 12.9% YoY, with growth rates led by strong Gen Z activity, which surged 29% YoY.

·         Consumer‑level 60+ days past due mortgage delinquencies edged up to 1.58% in Q4 2025, marking the 15th consecutive quarter of YoY increases. FHA loans continued to account for the largest share of these delinquencies, while VA loans again posted the fastest YoY growth.

Instant Analysis 

“As we move through 2026, easing 30‑year mortgage rates should improve affordability for both buyers and refinancers. Homeowners are also tapping accumulated equity, with home‑equity originations posting a sixth straight quarter of growth. We’re seeing further signs of normalization as inventory reaches its most balanced levels in nearly a decade. We’re encouraged by the momentum created by falling rates, increased supply and strong equity positions. Overall, the outlook remains positive as long as stakeholders stay focused and responsive.”

–  Satyan Merchant, senior vice president, automotive and mortgage business leader at TransUnion

Q4 2025 Mortgage Trends

Mortgage Lending Metric

Q4 2025

Q4 2024

Q4 2023

Q4 2022

Number of Mortgage Loans

54.6 million

53.8 million

52.9 million

52.6 million

Consumer-Level Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD)

1.51%

1.31%

1.03%

0.89%

Prior Quarter Originations*

1.3 million

1.3 million

1.2 million

1.5 million

Average Loan Amounts

of New Mortgage Loans*

 368,729

 350,250

 337,977

 334,339

Average Balance per Consumer

$269,562

 $261,631

 $258,167

 $252,212

Total Balances of All Mortgage Loans

$12.8 trillion

$12.3 trillion

$12.0 trillion

$11.7 trillion

Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database

* Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.

Click here for additional mortgage industry metrics. Click here for a mortgage industry infographic.

 

Auto lending ticks up as borrowers take on higher payments and larger loans

Q4 2025 CIIR Auto Loan Summary

·         Auto loan originations rose 6.2% YoY to 6.7 million in Q3 2025. Despite ongoing affordability challenges and tariff concerns impacting consumer vehicle demand, every risk tier posted YoY gains. Subprime (+13.8%) and super prime (+8.8%) led growth, while prime (+1.0%) saw a more modest increase.

·         Average monthly payments continued to climb. New vehicle payments rose 3.4% YoY to $782, while used vehicle payments increased 3.1% YoY to $538. Amounts financed also grew. New‑car financing rose 4.9% YoY to $44,495, and used‑car financing increased 4.3% YoY to $27,278.

·         Accounts 60+ days past due reached 1.50% in Q4 2025, up three basis points YoY. While delinquency continued to rise, increases were driven more by used vehicles, with delinquencies up 10 bps YoY compared to a 4 bps increase for new vehicles—signaling a slower pace of overall deterioration.

Instant Analysis

“Rising vehicle prices continue to push loan sizes and monthly payments higher, shifting a greater share of new loan originations to super prime consumers, who are better positioned to absorb these increases. These trends underscore persistent affordability pressures that make it harder for many consumers to manage the total cost of ownership. While tariffs add to these challenges, broader pricing dynamics suggest affordability constraints are likely to persist if current patterns continue.”

–  Satyan Merchant, senior vice president, automotive and mortgage business leader at TransUnion

Q4 2025 Auto Loan Trends

Auto Lending Metric

Q4 2025

Q4 2024

Q4 2023

Q4 2022

Total Auto Loan Accounts

79.6 million

80.4 million

80.4 million

80.2 million

Prior Quarter Originations1

6.7 million

6.4 million

6.3 million

6.5 million

Average Monthly Payment NEW2

$782

$756

$751

$729

Average Monthly Payment USED2

$538

$522

$530

$526

Average Balance per Consumer

$24,822

$24,373

$23,945

$22,998

Average Amount Financed on New Auto Loans2

$44,495

$42,402

$41,041

$41,923

Average Amount Financed on Used Auto Loans2

$27,278

$26,162

$26,378

$27,455

Account-Level Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD)

1.50%

1.47%

1.42%

1.26%

Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database

1Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.

2Data from S&P Global MobilityAutoCreditInsight, Q4 2025 data only for months of October & November.

Click here for additional auto industry metrics.

For more information about the report, please register for the Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insight Report webinar.

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