The calendar reads February but it’s going to feel a lot like March this weekend.
That’s because No. 1 Michigan is taking on No. 3 Duke in a much-anticipated matchup in the nation’s capital that many are drumming up to be a potential Final Four preview.
ESPN’s “College GameDay” will be in town for the showdown. Capital One Arena figures to be packed and buzzing. A bunch of NBA talent will be on display between two teams jostling for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.
“It’s going to be an amazing atmosphere,” guard Trey McKenney said after Tuesday’s win at Purdue. “It’s going to be sold out in D.C. It’s probably going to be one of the biggest games of the year. I’m really excited to play.”
For good reason. Michigan and Duke are ranked Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, on KenPom and in the NET rankings. The Wolverines and Blue Devils are the only teams in the nation that rank in the top seven of KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Both sit atop their respective conference standings, with Michigan holding a two-game lead in Big Ten and Duke leading the ACC by 1½ games.
It’s a clash between two teams that have been downright dominant for most of the season and are powered by talented frontcourts that feature future draft picks. Behind the trio of Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara, Michigan leads the Big Ten and is second nationally in scoring margin (plus-21.8 points). Not far behind in that category is Duke at fifth (plus-19.8), with freshman Cameron Boozer, the front-runner to win National Player of the Year, and big man Patrick Ngongba leading the way.
Yet, playing in a high-profile nonconference game that will capture the interest of the college basketball world is nothing new to Michigan.
“We’ve been in this predicament before, earlier on in the year, with a lot of hype going around the game, like the Gonzaga one,” Lendeborg said, referring to the Players Era tournament final in November. “We know this is what we signed up for. We’re just going to continue to stay within our circle and continue to cover ourselves and play within the group.”
Added guard Elliot Cadeau: “I feel like every time we have a big game, I feel like we’re all locked in and we all have an intense mindset. We’re just going to keep the same thing going for the next game.”
The top-five tilt is a chance for Michigan to keep separating from the rest and add another signature win to an already-impressive résumé. The Wolverines boast a nation-best 10 Quad-1 wins, along with Duke and Arizona, and have more combined Quad-1 and Quad-2 wins (19 total) than any other team.
It’s also another opportunity for Michigan to take its show on the road, where it has yet to drop a game this season.
“It can be another statement that we can do it anywhere, any place because of the group of guys that we have,” guard Nimari Burnett said. “The personnel, the coaching staff, everything matters and it all fits together in order to do it at a high level. It’s no surprise to us the adversity that we handle throughout the season. We know we have confidence in ourselves in any environment that we can stay poised through ups and downs, and we can stay together.”
The Wolverines have seen it all and done it all this season. They’ve won comfortably and narrowly. They’ve won with their defense, their offense, their depth and their size. They’ve prevailed in games that went down to the wire. They’ve dominated in contests from wire to wire.
They’ve conquered hostile environments like Breslin Center and Mackey Arena. They’ve rallied from halftime and second-half deficits. They’ve taken down every ranked opponent that has crossed their path.
They’ve passed nearly every test so far, though Duke might be the biggest one yet. The Blue Devils rank third nationally in scoring defense (63.2 points) and eighth in rebounding margin (plus-9.8). The main attraction is Boozer, a projected top-five pick who is one of the top scorers (22.8 points) and rebounders (10 per game) in the nation and can do everything.
“It’s another really good team that you’re going against,” McKenney said. “Teams are always going to go on their runs, but it’s about how you bounce back. And I think for the past few weeks, we’ve been doing a really good job of that.”
Scheduling a nonconference game in late February — as opposed to the usual months of November and December — near the end of conference play is a bit unusual but not unheard of.
Last season, Illinois and coach Brad Underwood, whom Michigan coach Dusty May called “one of the forward thinkers in our game,” faced Duke around the same time at New York’s Madison Square Garden.
May picked Underwood’s brain about it. The idea is with the college football and NFL seasons over, sports fans are starting to turn their attention to college basketball with March Madness around the corner. It’s a prime time to build buzz and play on a big stage in front of a national audience.
“(Illinois) had a tough showing last year, for a number of reasons. They had some injuries and illness. With that being said, (I asked Underwood) would you still play it? And he said, 100 times out of 100,” May said this week. “It’s good for the sport, these nonconference games. I remember being a young kid being glued to the TV to watch a cross-country matchup between two historic programs.
“It’s different. The ratings show that they’re well received by the fans and attendance. People that are looking for tickets, you tell them to go to secondary market, and then you start looking at what the secondary market is. That shows that this game is going to be good for the game and for the sport. Also with NIL and things like that, we’re constantly trying to generate revenue for our program.”
May said the team will approach the Duke matchup like it’s an NCAA Tournament game, using a couple of days to prepare and learn about an opponent from another conference that it’s not typically familiar with.
It also gives the Wolverines a “recess mentally” from the grind of Big Ten play before they dive back in, hit the home stretch and continue their push toward the regular-season title.
“Obviously, the magnitude of Duke, you’re never unfamiliar with Duke,” May said.
“We’re going to treat it like a Sweet 16, hopefully Final Four type of game where we’re going into it with a short prep. … Can we execute a game plan? If we do it well, then it would be an awesome win. If we don’t, then it would be a great learning experience for us moving into the next month.”
Michigan vs. Duke
▶ Tipoff: 6:30 p.m. Saturday, Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
▶ TV/radio: ESPN/94.7
▶ Records: No. 1 Michigan 25-1, 15-1 Big Ten; No. 3 Duke 24-2, 13-1 ACC
▶ Outlook: Michigan has an 8-22 record in the all-time series against Duke and is 0-6 in games played at neutral sites. This is the first meeting between the teams since December 2013, when they squared off in an ACC/Big Ten Challenge game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Michigan’s last win over Duke came in December 2008 in Ann Arbor.
@jamesbhawkins
