With just one day before the snow starts falling again, there’s an unusual amount of uncertainty this close to the start of the storm. It revolves around just how close to the coast our Nor’easter will track, and how far inland the steadiest snows will get. So let’s first start with what we know, and then discuss the lingering uncertainty.
WHAT WE KNOW
Nor’easter likely: A coastal storm will develop on Sunday, rapidly strengthen Sunday night, and lift northeast off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This will be a powerful Nor’easter, with blizzard conditions along the shore and a widespread accumulating snow for the Northeast Corridor.
The coast gets the most: Blizzard warnings are hoisted for the New Jersey and Delaware coasts and on Long Island. These areas will see heavy snow, 50+ mph gusts, and whiteout conditions at times, in addition to a foot or more of snow likely.
Timing: Occasional light snow will develop Sunday morning, and become steadier later in the day. The steadiest snow likely falls from Sunday evening, through the overnight hours Sunday night, and then into early Monday morning.
Type: This will be all snow, with no mixing issues for our area. However, it will be a heavier and wetter snow than our big late January storm. That means it’s a more troublesome snow to clear due to its heavier weight.
Totals: There are certain things we know about expected snowfall totals, but this is the area of the most lingering uncertainty as well. A widespread accumulating snow is likely area-wide, plowable for most, and a heavy, wet snow that clings to everything. The closer to the coast you travel, the higher the totals will be. Areas from the I-95 corridor to the shore have the best chance of seeing a foot or more of snow, with those blizzard conditions closer to the coast as well.
Winds: Increasingly brisk easterly, then northeasterly, and then finally northerly winds are expected as our Nor’easter cranks up off the coast. Winds will be strongest at the shore, where 50-55mph gusts are expected. Farther inland, winds may still gust 30-40mph.
Watches and warnings: Winter storm warnings are in effect for most of New Jersey, southeastern Pennsylvania, and the I-95 corridor in general. These areas are likely to get at least 6 inches of snow, with 12″ or more of snow increasingly likely for some. For the Lehigh Valley, Berks County, the Poconos, and points west, winter storm watches remain in effect. A watch means 6 inches or more of snow is “possible”, but not immediately likely given the uncertainty of the track of the storm. Along the shore, blizzard warnings have been issued for likely blizzard conditions at times.
WHAT WE DON’T KNOW
Track: Just how close to the coast will the storm track. A closer to the coast track spreads the heavy snow farther inland. A more offshore track keeps the heavier snow closer to the coast.
Totals: Our initial snowfall forecast was “conservative”, given the uncertainty in storm track and how far inland the steadier snow gets. We had 3-6″ for the heart of our area, 6-12″ along the I-95 corridor, and 12-18″ east of there to the shore. In our Saturday morning update, we’ve brought the higher amounts back a little farther west, but not all the way through our area yet given the lingering uncertainty. Case in point, our “American” computer model delivers a foot (or more) of snow to much of our area, while the “European” model delivers a few inches. That’s an incredible discrepancy just 24 hours before a storm starts, and highly unusual. So we’re now bringing the 6-12″ forecast to around a Reading to Allentown line, and this still may have to come farther west still if the certainty grows.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Our next round of computer model guidance comes out around 10:30am to 12:30pm today, and hopefully, we’ll finally reach a consensus and remove the lingering uncertainty.
Snowfall amounts may still change, and have to be increased (or decreased) depending on the likely storm track that develops. Pay close attention to future forecasts for these changes.
Winter storm watches for the Lehigh Valley, Berks County, the Poconos, and the I-81 corridor could be upgraded to winter storm warnings if the snowfall forecast becomes more certain.
