The Raptors play just their second game of the season without Scottie Barnes, which will cause a seismic ripple on both ends of the floor.
After taking care of business out of All-Star Weekend against a fragmented Bulls lineup, Toronto is favoured again versus a Bucks team without Giannis Antetokounmpo.
But Milwaukee is not a team to be taken lightly, even if the oddsmakers have done so.
They’ve been underdogs in all five games since the trade deadline, yet won 4-of-5 straight up.
For Toronto, sometimes not all wins need to be pretty; they had one of their ugliest of the season against Chicago.
It’ll be interesting to see if they can sharpen up without their All-NBA level star in Barnes.
Both defences have holes to be exploited.
The following three legs via FanDuel’s YourWay feature pays +298 at the time of writing.
Brandon Ingram 22+ points
Barnes was sidelined last month for their matchup in Boston but sadly we don’t have any clean data to work with as Ingram also missed that game.
That being said, I’m confident BI will be relied upon to push this offence forward especially if the Raptors struggle to execute their game plan.
Ingram is Toronto’s undisputed top shot maker and has put the team on his back multiple times of late.
He’s had five games of 25 or more points over the past month and shown no issue demanding the ball when required.
Since Antetokounmpo’s most recent injury, the Bucks have been the seventh-worst defence in the league.
Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. have actually stepped up admirably on the perimeter and Myles Turner has been decent closing off the rim.
Where does BI live though? He’s a mid-range maestro.
The Bucks will feature a mixture of Kyle Kuzma, AJ Green, or Bobby Portis in front of BI – all players who profile as below-average defenders.
I expect Toronto’s game plan will count on Ingram to exploit his mismatches.
RJ Barrett 4+ assists
Referencing that lone game Barnes missed, Barrett took on a larger role finishing with seven dimes against the Celtics.
His usage rate spiked to 32.0 percent which isn’t surprising with Barnes and Ingram sidelined.
Turning our focus one year back, Barrett averaged 6.8 assists over 15 games when Barnes was absent last season.
Barrett’s playmaking has been underrated this year with his role morphing more into a slasher/scorer.
Against this Milwaukee defence, though, there should be plenty of opportunity for him to operate in transition and create chaos.
The Pelicans most recently dropped 84 points in the paint and 24 on the fast break – two weaknesses that correlate well to Barrett’s assists.
At the time of writing, Turner is questionable with a right calf strain.
If he sits, it’s a welcome boost for this bet.
Should he play, Barrett dimes is still solid as plenty of kickouts will be available on the three-point line.
I think Barrett deserves more credit with Barnes absent and this is a great buy-low spot in my opinion.
Kevin Porter Jr. 7+ assists
KPJ has been a major bright spot for Milwaukee when healthy.
While he might be an imperfect defender, he has given the Bucks a ton of juice as a dynamic, speedy playmaker who consistently puts opposing defences in collapse mode.
Ja’Kobe Walter will have a tough assignment on his hands but could be up to the challenge.
If Immanuel Quickley or Jamal Shead get caught on KPJ, I worry his size and speed combo will cause havoc for a Raptors defence playing without DPOY candidate Barnes.
With Jakob Poeltl looking very limited on the court, Toronto simply doesn’t have the paint protection to deter his rim penetration.
Just like Ingram, Porter Jr. is Milwaukee’s solution when the going gets tough.
Watching Bucks film, what stands out to me is his propensity for finding his teammates.
He’s a very capable shot maker but embodies a pass-first mentality in this current role.
Since returning from injury, he’s covered 7+ assists in all six games.
I’m worried Toronto’s defence will be a shell of itself with Barnes off the court.
