The UK will continue with this mild air, making it feel like spring might not be far away (away from the blustery wind). Temperatures will widely be in double figures, with 17 or 18C possible in the south for the middle of the week. More rain is coming in from the Atlantic but away from the west, many parts will enjoy some fine weather this week.
Blustery showers for northwestern Britain and Northern Ireland on Monday, a waving weather front by Tuesday for western Scotland as much of the UK sees dry, sunny weather. Northwestern parts of the UK will see more rain this week as other regions enjoy this taste of spring with brighter skies and the mild conditions. There is some uncertainty by Thursday and Friday, with a chance of rain for southern England and possibly stronger winds in the north.
The Atlantic is going to bring us more low pressures, one bringing a fragmented band of rain later today over southern Britain, but rain for Northern Ireland, northern England this evening and Scotland overnight.
The jet stream has great meanders in it to start the week as high pressure moves from Iberia to central Europe. At the surface, warm air from southern Europe gets pulled northwards. Gradually, the jet will become more zonal and aim low pressures towards Iceland and the UK later this week.
Disruptive Nor’easter for the eastern seaboard
The east coast of North America starts the working week with
“A major winter storm is expected to bring heavy snow, strong winds, and coastal flooding across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast that may cause impossible travel conditions and power outages. Blizzard conditions are possible along coastal areas,” NWS
New Jersey Govenor Mikie Sherrill declared a state of emergency, effective at noon on Sunday, Feb. 22nd. “I urge New Jerseyans to use caution, stay off the roads, and follow all safety protocols during the storm,” This storm could bring historic amounts of snow to the east coast by the end of Monday with widespread travel disruption at airports, on the highways and city streets.
This deepening low pressure will move along the east coast of North America, impacting New York City, New England (6-12” of snow, 15-30cm, possibly 24” /60cm) and up to the Maritimes in Canada, where “20 to 30 cm, except locally up to 50 cm possible”
As the storm continues to rage, there will be more heavy blowing snow with blizzard conditions, poor visibility, treacherous travel conditions, and sporadic power outages. Coastal flooding is also a concern at high tide with the push of water around the low.
This is a Nor’easter, named after the direction from which the strongest winds typically blow over the northeast states of the US and eastern Canada. Deep winter cold has moved southwards out of Canada across the US towards warm air over the Atlantic and a storm can form along the steep temperature gradient.
Will it impact the UK?
It’s not going to bring us a huge dump of snow. There will be rain for western parts. The lows and highs over the Atlantic and Europe will manoeuvre about. Within the meanders of the jetstream, we are seeing low pressures elongate, and secondary lows trail behind the main centres. The low pressure bringing the rain tonight across parts of the UK will continue northwards close to Iceland and up to the Norwegian Sea. Its weather fronts will trail over the northwestern/western parts of the UK on Tuesday night as a few more little low centres move by northwestern Scotland midweek.
By Thursday, what remains of the Nor’easter storm low will be edging towards NW Europe, with the low centre moving between Iceland and the Western Isles. Its weather fronts will trail across the UK, bringing rain from the west and blustery winds. Again, there could be a secondary low which might bring rain over southern Britain by Friday, or deepen more and impact more of the UK with wind and rain later this week. No snow, but potentially unsettled weather and a change to fresher air from the northwest as the low clears. The very mild feed of air from the south is not expected to be with us by the weekend.
The USA headlines for Monday morning
Boston “A potentially historic nor’easter is battering Massachusetts Monday morning, closing schools, threatening power outages and making travel dangerous. Much of the state was expected to get at least a foot of snow, and more is possible in Boston”
“The blizzard will last until Monday morning for Philly (Philadelphia), but will go into the afternoon at the Shore.” (including Atlantic City)
Winter storm satellite image from 0835z
NBC have reported 15 to 17” of snow falling overnight “Some places in New York City had a foot of snow by midnight, and other spots are expected to top that, with hours of snow still to go. Long Island and parts of the Jersey Shore were seeing the most accumulation.”
With the dangerous multi hazards of heavy snowfall, blizzards, high winds and coastal flooding the New York Governor, Kathy Hochul had also declared a state of emergency for 22 counties covering New York City, Long Island, parts of the Hudson Valley and Capital Region on Sunday, with schools closed for Monday 23rd.
More discussion in the North America thread on the Netweather communityforum
