India
Played: 1, Points: 0, NRR: -3.80
Remaining matches: vs Zimbabwe, West IndiesIf India win both matches
With four points, India will be assured of qualification if South Africa win both their remaining matches – against West Indies and Zimbabwe – or if they lose both. Even if South Africa beat West Indies and lose to Zimbabwe, India will still be assured of a place in the last four without net run-rates (NRR) coming into play.
However, if South Africa lose to West Indies and beat Zimbabwe, then three teams – South Africa, West Indies and India – will be level on four points. In that case, NRR will be the tie-breaker, and the outlook isn’t great for India, thanks to their heavy defeat to South Africa and West Indies’ thumping win over Zimbabwe.
Let’s assume India beat Zimbabwe by 60 runs on Thursday after scoring 180. If West Indies beat South Africa by five runs, and South Africa in turn beat Zimbabwe by any margin, India will still need a 64-run win against West Indies to squeeze into the semi-finals at West Indies’ expense (assuming totals of 180 by the team batting first).
If, on the other hand, South Africa lose by a heavy 40-run margin to West Indies and beat Zimbabwe by one run, then India will need to beat West Indies by 54 runs to pip South Africa.
If India win one and lose one
For India to have any hope in this scenario, either South Africa or West Indies will have to win all three matches, with the other teams winning one each, bringing NRR into play.
If South Africa win all three, West Indies, India and Zimbabwe will all be fighting for the second semi-final spot with one win each (if India lose to Zimbabwe and beat West Indies). The numbers look highly improbable for India: even if they lose by just a run to Zimbabwe, and West Indies lose by 50 runs to South Africa, India will still have to beat West Indies by 67 runs to take the second semi-final spot.
If West Indies win all three – including a one-run win against India – and South Africa lose their two remaining games by 50 and 20 runs, respectively, then India still need to beat Zimbabwe by 84 runs to go past South Africa’s NRR.
South Africa
Played: 1, Points: 2, NRR: +3.80
Remaining matches: vs West Indies, Zimbabwe
A thoroughly dominant win against India puts South Africa in a strong position to make the semi-final. However, there’s still work to be done to seal a spot in the last four. A win against West Indies on Thursday will almost certainly be enough to qualify, though there remains a theoretical possibility of South Africa, West Indies and Zimbabwe all finishing on four points if India lose all three matches.
If South Africa lose to West Indies and beat Zimbabwe, then there’s a possibility of a three-way tie on four points, as mentioned in the India scenario section. South Africa’s 76-run win against India gives them a significant cushion, which should be enough in most NRR scenarios, unless they suffer a heavy defeat.
Defeats in both remaining matches could still keep South Africa in contention if West Indies win all three and the others one each.
West Indies
Played: 1, Points: 2, NRR: +5.35
Remaining matches: vs SA, Ind
West Indies have begun their Super Eight campaign with an emphatic 107-run win over Zimbabwe, but tougher challenges await in South Africa and India. Defeats in both matches will keep them in contention only if India lose to Zimbabwe, resulting in three teams tied on two points and fighting for one place.
A win against South Africa and a loss to India could result in a three-way tie on four points; the same could happen if they beat India and lose to South Africa. Should qualification come down to NRR, that 107-run win could prove decisive.
Zimbabwe
Played: 1, Points: 0, NRR: -5.35
Remaining matches: vs Ind, SA
Zimbabwe entered the Super Eight as underdogs, and a couple of costly fielding errors mean they have plenty of catching up to do if they are to stand any chance of finishing in the top two. Their best-case scenario is to win both remaining matches and hope that West Indies do the same, allowing West Indies and Zimbabwe to qualify without NRR coming into play.
S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats
