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The headline numbers tell only part of the story. Three surprises stand out as potential stock movers that weren’t fully priced in heading into this report.
The EPS Context Is Complicated
The previous update flagged a GAAP EPS miss of –$0.09 versus –$0.01 estimated. But that consensus figure looks like an outlier. Alpha Vantage data pegs the Q4 estimate at –$0.09, making the result exactly in line, a very different read than a miss.
Guidance Margin Compression
Q1 2026 GAAP gross margin guidance steps down from Q4’s levels, a contraction analysts may not have modeled given the record margin trajectory established through 2025.
Neutron Pushed to Q4 2026
The tank test failure moved Neutron’s maiden flight from H1 2026 to Q4 2026, a concrete six-month-plus slip that replaces prior vague timelines with a specific, trackable miss.
5 minutes ago
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Q4 Earnings Scorecard
Category
Grade
Notes
Revenue Performance
A
$179.65M beat estimates; FY25 full-year revenue reached $601.80M.
Earnings Beat/Miss
C
GAAP EPS of -$0.09 missed the -$0.01 consensus estimate.
Guidance Quality
A
Q1 FY26 guidance of $185M-$200M implies roughly +57% YoY growth at the midpoint.
Margin Trends
B
GAAP gross margin guided to 34%-36% in Q1, down from Q3’s record 36.9% on mix and investment timing.
Cash Flow
B
Over $1 billion in liquidity provides runway for Neutron development.
Management Confidence
A
CEO Peter Beck projected strong momentum, though Neutron’s timeline slip to Q4 2026 introduces execution risk.
Overall Grade: B+
Rocket Lab delivered a revenue beat and record backlog momentum, but the GAAP EPS miss and Neutron delay temper an otherwise strong quarter. The $185M-$200M Q1 guidance is the headline takeaway. Q1 margin compression bears watching.
33 minutes ago
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Metric
Q1 FY26 Guidance
Read-through
Revenue
$185M–$200M
Record Q1 implied; +57% YoY at midpoint (company statement)
GAAP Gross Margin
34%–36%
Steps down from Q4 GAAP GM (~38%) on mix/investment timing
Non-GAAP Gross Margin
39%–41%
Steps down from Q4 non-GAAP GM (44.3%)
Adjusted EBITDA
–$21M to –$27M
Continued investment cycle; loss guided wider than Q4 actual
34 minutes ago
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RKLB shares are up 1.2% after Rocket Lab posted record Q4 revenue of ~$180M and lifted backlog meaningfully, while also pushing Neutron’s first launch target to Q4 2026 following the Stage 1 tank test failure.
Metric
Actual
Consensus (pre)
Beat / Miss
Revenue (Q4)
$179.65M
$178.18M
Beat
EPS (GAAP)
–$0.09
–$0.01
Miss
FY25 Revenue
$601.80M
$600.14M
Beat
Rocket Lab USA (NASDAQ: RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings today, and the stakes are high. With shares up 230% over the past year but down nearly 12% over the past month, investors want answers on Neutron, margins, and the path forward.
A Record Quarter Sets a High Bar
Last quarter, Rocket Lab delivered record revenue of $155.08 million, up 48% year over year, beating estimates by a hair. More importantly, GAAP gross margin hit 37%, also a record, showing the business is scaling with discipline. EPS came in at -$0.03, beating the -$0.11 estimate by a wide margin.
For Q4, management guided to revenue of $170 million to $180 million with GAAP gross margins of 37% to 39%. That midpoint implies roughly 34% year-over-year growth, a step down from Q3’s torrid pace but still exceptional for a company this size. Analysts are largely aligned, with consensus revenue estimates sitting around $176 to $178 million.
Consensus Estimates
Metric
Q4 2025 Estimate
Full Year 2025 (Implied)
EPS (GAAP)
-$0.01
-$0.39
Revenue
$178.18M
$600.14M
5 Things to Watch
1. Neutron Timeline After the Tank Rupture
This is the biggest wildcard heading into the call. Last quarter, Peter Beck told investors that Neutron was on track for a pad arrival in Q1 2026. Since then, reports surfaced of a Stage 1 tank rupture during testing. That kind of incident is not automatically catastrophic, Beck himself said the point of ground testing is to find problems before flight, but it does raise questions about whether the Q1 timeline holds. I’ll be listening closely for how management characterizes the incident and whether they update the launch window.
2. Gross Margin Expansion
Rocket Lab guided for non-GAAP gross margins of 43% to 45% in Q4, a meaningful step up from Q3’s 41.9%. The drivers are higher Electron launch cadence, better average selling prices, and overhead absorption. CFO Adam Spice has laid out a long-term target of 45% to 50% non-GAAP gross margins for Electron at scale. Watch whether Q4 results keep that trajectory intact.
3. Electron Momentum and the 50th Mission
Electron just hit its 50th mission milestone, a meaningful proof point for a rocket that launched for the first time in 2017. The company secured 17 new launch contracts in Q3 alone, a record, and total backlog stood at 49 launches on contract. Investors will be watching whether Q4 contract signings sustain that pace and whether management raises the annual cadence target beyond 30 flights.
4. Defense Exposure and SDA Tranche 3
Rocket Lab’s positioning in government programs is becoming a core part of the bull thesis. The Geost acquisition, closed last quarter for $325 million, strengthens the company’s standing as a prime contractor for programs like Golden Dome and Space Development Agency constellations. Beck called it “well-timed, strategic M&A in growth areas aligned with next-generation defense programs.” SDA Tranche 3 would be the largest contract in company history. Any update on timing matters.
5. The Path to Profitability
Rocket Lab is burning cash. Adjusted EBITDA loss guidance for Q4 is -$23 million to -$29 million, and free cash flow will remain negative as Neutron development spending stays elevated. The company has over $1 billion in liquidity, so there’s no near-term crisis, but investors are watching for any narrowing of the loss trajectory. Prediction markets are pricing an 84.5% probability of an earnings beat, which sets a high bar.
Rocket Lab is at an inflection point. The Electron business is operationally strong and gaining global momentum. The space systems segment is growing with real defense tailwinds. But Neutron is the variable that could either accelerate the stock’s re-rating or reset expectations sharply. With shares trading at $72.29 against an analyst target of $83.96, the market is pricing in execution. This quarter, management needs to show it can deliver on both the numbers and the narrative.
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