The Spurs headed into the season with some question marks with the biggest being their lack of backcourt shooting. The trio of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper undoubtedly had quickness, athleticism, and driving ability to spare, but their jumpers in general and their outside shots in particular were not their strong suit.
Three-quarters into the season, there have been some pleasant surprises about their shooting, but also a confirmation of some fears. Let’s look at where things stand now, how they can impact the Spurs in the playoffs, and what can be expected in the future.
De’Aaron Fox has been better than expected and is making lineups work
Fox came into the season as a career 33 percent shooter on 4.6 attempts a game. It wasn’t a terrible mark for a lead guard who often takes tough shots but it was below league average and was considered one of his biggest weaknesses. This season, he’s shooting 35 percent on 5.1 attempts, the third-best mark in efficiency of his career on fewer attempts than recent years, but still a solid amount.
On catch-and-shoot opportunities, he’s connecting on 36.6 of his attempts, which has been good enough to enable lineups in which others handle the ball. When sharing the court with Castle, Fox takes more threes and makes them at a higher percentage, per PBPStats.com, which is one of the reasons the starting unit works. He’s also a decent pull-up threat, scoring on 34 percent of his attempts, which makes him a versatile outside shooter.
Fox has not been a great three-point shooter but he has been good enough to be able to play an off-ball role at times next to Castle and has hit enough pull-ups to make defenses respect his shot, which is what the Spurs needed from him.
The young guards show promise on catch-and-shoots, but are not outside threats yet
No one expected Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper to be legitimate shooting threats coming into this season. The second-year player was bad at it both in college and during his first season as a pro, and it was Harper’s main weakness on offense heading into the draft. They have been as up and down as anticipated, with some signs that inspire optimism for the future, and some that instill concerns about this season.
As catch-and-shoot players, both young guards are bad but not hopeless, which is encouraging considering their ages. Castle connects on 32.6 percent of his almost three attempts a game, while Harper sits at 30 percent on almost two attempts a game. Those are not good numbers, and every possession that ends with either of them taking a spot-up three is a win for the defense. Still, it’s a good sign that they are in the 30s so early in their careers while rebuilding their shots, and they have proved that they can get hot from the corners.
There is no good news on the pull-up three front. Castle is shooting 18 percent on pull-up threes on almost one attempt a game, a horrible mark for anyone, but especially a primary ball handler. Dylan Harper has made three of his 29 total attempts. No one goes under on screens for them, which makes their success on drives all the more impressive. For comparison, Castle averages almost exactly the same number of drives per gaem and field goal percentage on drives as Tyrese Maxey, while doubling his assists on drives. Harper has the same amount of drives in far fewer minutes than DeMar DeRozan and is shooting a similarly gargantuan 53 percent on those drives. He also averages as many assists on drives as Jalen Brunson in way fewer minutes.
The young guys can’t shoot. There’s hope that they can become solid catch-and-shoot guys in the future but the pull-up shooting could be a long term issue. The lack of consistency could be an issue this postseason, especially in lineups featuring both, which have been good in the aggregate but have an anemic offensive rating that would rank 26th in the league among teams.
The mid-range game might help them mitigate their weaknesses
Perimeter scoring is not solely about three-point shooting. The long shots are hugely important but San Antonio has some designated shooters an a big man in Wembanyama who can space the floor even when he’s not taking many threes. As we’ve seen with the drives, the Spurs’ guards have managed to make a positive impact on offense despite not having a lot of gravity. It’s also encouraging that they can hit mid-range jumpers.
Fox is not only a passable three-point shooter but also a mid-range assassin. He shoots 53.3 percent from floater area on a significant number of attempts and 44.4 percent from mid-range on almost 100 attempts. He can stop on a dime and hit turnaround or fadeaway jumpers. It’s the type of secondary weapon that makes him hard to stop even in clutch situations.
Fox and Castle are not as deadly, but they are solid. Castle shoots 41.8 percent in the paint outside of the restricted area on a solid number of attempts, which is not particularly good but passable. From the in-between area he shoots an impressive 48.1 percent on limited tries. If Castle’s middie stays efficient with increased usage, it would really help him against teams that wall off the paint.
Harper has taken fewer jumpers inside the arc, so his numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt, but he’s connected on 43,6 percent from floater range and 45.2 percent from mid-range. Those are decent numbers that provide plenty of reasons for optimism about the rookie’s jumper and could also help him against playoff defenses when things slow down.
No offense should be geared toward procuring mid-range jumpers, as they are not efficient shots and don’t often lead to fouls, but it’s important to have players who can make those tough in-between shots, especially if the defense is willing to allow them. With Wembanyama’s gravity and Luke Kornet’s elite screening, the guards should be able to get to their spot inside the arc. If they can cotninue to connect on those looks as they have so far, it should help mitigate their lack of a consistent three-pointer.
