There have been dark days in the last decade of Toronto Maple Leafs hockey, almost all of them in the playoffs, but arguably nothing quite like this.
This is something different. The darkness feels existential right now, like the franchise is teetering on the edge of an abyss — rudderless, dysfunctional and lacking both a suitable road map for the future and the right people to execute it.
Not even when the Leafs finished dead last in the 2015-16 season did it feel quite so bleak. That team was bad on purpose, and had a clear direction for the future with Mike Babcock behind the bench and a flood of young stars on the way, including eventual No. 1 overall pick Auston Matthews.
The current vibes feel more akin, in some ways, to the 2014-15 season when a squad led in scoring by Phil Kessel, coached by Randy Carlyle (and later Peter Horachek) and managed by Dave Nonis went off a cliff, losing 11 games in a row at one point. That was the year Horachek, Carlyle’s in-season replacement, introduced the “give-a-shit metre” into the Toronto lexicon.
That team, overseen by first-year team president Brendan Shanahan, finished with a measly 68 points. A deep purge followed — Nonis fired, Kessel traded — as Shanahan, with a lot of help, slowly got the franchise turned in the right direction.
It would never get that bad again over his 11 years in charge.
The current team — on pace for 86 points — is not quite as dire as 2014-15. And it’s worth pointing out the current bleakness comes on the heels of the most successful regular-season run in franchise history.
Still, there are concerning parallels. The product on the ice, for one thing: the Leafs haven’t given up this many goals per game (3.45) since the 2008-09 season, when the crease was helmed by Vesa Toskala and Curtis Joseph and the defence included names like Jeff Finger and Pavel Kubina. That’s the only season, in the last 20, that’s been worse for the franchise. Even that team controlled the puck more than this one.
There are definite Carlyle vibes under Craig Berube. Consider that of the last 19 Leafs teams, dating back to the start of the 2007-08 season when data became available, only two have had worse puck possession metrics than this one (45 percent): the 2013-14 Leafs (42.4) and the 2012-13 Leafs (44.9), both coached by Carlyle.
Bottom 10 possession teams since 07-08
SeasonPossessionCoach
2013-14
42.4
Carlyle
2012-13
44.9
Carlyle
2025-26
45.1
Berube
2014-15
45.3
Carlyle/Horachek
2010-11
47.0
Wilson
2024-25
47.7
Berube
2011-12
48.5
Wilson/Carlyle
2008-09
49.4
Wilson
2015-16
50.3
Babcock
2017-18
50.6
Babcock
Even that ’15-16 Leafs squad, which had a young Nazem Kadri leading the team with 45 points and a top defence pair of Matt Hunwick and 21-year-old Morgan Rielly, boasted a stronger expected goals mark (49.8 percent) than this one (47.6). (Last season’s team, as you’ll notice, wasn’t great either.)
Not unlike Carlyle — who famously overplayed Jay McClement, buried Mikhail Grabovski and dressed a line of enforcers — Berube’s personnel decisions have been increasingly puzzling, such as the recent decision to repeatedly scratch rookie Easton Cowan in the name of playing veterans like Calle Järnkrok, Dakota Joshua and Steven Lorentz.
In the end, sticking with Berube, when there was more than enough reason to make a change, ultimately backfired. With different strategies and messaging, the Leafs may have been able to dig their way out from an early-season hole.
Craig Berube’s second season with the Leafs has gone poorly. (John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)
Would the front office have operated differently had they actually replaced Shanahan as president? Maybe. But that was a move Keith Pelley, the president and CEO of MLSE, opted not to make for reasons that remain unexplained.
One move after another has gone wrong for general manager Brad Treliving in the wake of all that, from trading for Joshua (who still has two years remaining on his contract) to extending Anthony Stolarz, to not upgrading the roster (minus waiver claim Troy Stecher) at any point this season. Treliving’s future feels just as tenuous as Berube’s, if not more so. But with Pelley running the operation, amid looming ownership changes this summer, it’s become hard to feel like the Leafs are in good hands — especially given where things stand with a roster that’s old and largely entrenched, a draft-pick stockpile that’s almost nonexistent and a prospect pool that lacks upside.
It will be difficult, though not impossible with the right maneuvering, to turn this around for next season.
What makes this situation worse? Unlike in 2015, the Leafs aren’t assured a top-five pick. They don’t own their first-round pick in 2027 either (though it’s top-10 protected).
The expectations for this team were so much higher, too. Minus Mitch Marner, the top-five reward for that lost 14-15 season, the Leafs were at best fringe Stanley Cup contenders. But making the playoffs felt like an afterthought, an inevitability.
Not anymore. Those odds are now down to an unthinkable 4 percent.
It’s not just this season, though, that makes it all feel so much darker. It’s the failures of the past decade — all those painful playoff defeats for teams with legitimate Cup aspirations and potential — stacking on top of it. It’s all those chances missed leading to this, a team that spent and spent and spent at the trade deadline with nothing now to show for it.
The big questions now: How long will this darkness last? And who will lead this team back into the light?
Eight things I like, don’t like or find interesting right now
1. It’s not just that Cowan should be playing. He should be playing on one of the top two lines, alongside Matthews or John Tavares, and not on the third and fourth lines where he’s spent much of the season.
I’d like to see him get another crack with Matthews. Cowan got a limited run of 80 minutes next to the team captain early on and results for the Leafs were positive: They outscored foes 6-2 and won almost 60 percent of expected goals. The organization should be interested in determining whether Cowan can be an option next to Matthews next season or, at minimum, someone who can play in the top six.
2. Cowan may have hit a wall before the Olympic break. However, it’s hard to call his season a disappointment. I’d even describe it as encouraging.
The 20-year-old ranks eighth among Leafs forwards in point rate at five-on-five (1.62 points per 60 minutes), about even with Bobby McMann (1.63) and just in front of Max Domi (1.51), who has spent a huge chunk of the season playing next to Matthews.
Cowan’s most frequent linemate: Nic Roy.
Easton Cowan should get a shot higher up in the lineup in a season that’s already beyond saving. (Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)
Domi has 19 five-on-five points this season to 14 for Cowan. That’s despite Domi playing in 14 more games, with more than 200 extra minutes and better linemates.
The Leafs are outscoring teams 22-16 when Cowan is out there at five-on-five. His 49 percent expected goals mark ranks third among the team’s forwards. That stat can be misleading because it doesn’t offer context on deployment, linemates or competition, but it still points to a young player who hasn’t floundered on a team that has.
3. Shot attempts were 74-43 overall in favour of the Senators on Saturday. It was the seventh-worst overall possession game for the Leafs this season.
4. One sneaky problem for the Leafs heading into the break and coming out of it: They’ve stopped scoring, with just 2.5 goals per game in their last 12.
That’s a big problem, given they’re allowing more than four goals per game over that stretch, which began on Jan. 19.
5. On that note, Tavares isn’t scoring at all anymore at five-on-five. In his last 39 games, dating back to Nov. 22, the 35-year-old has scored only three five-on-five goals. He had a team-leading nine such goals during a blazing first 21 games.
6. It was true early on, but the narrative that goaltending is largely to blame for all those goals against isn’t quite right anymore.
The goalies’ play – Anthony Stolarz much more so than Joseph Woll – has definitely fallen off from last season, which was to be expected given how unexpectedly elite they were. And while it’s hardly been good, it’s basically middle of the pack at 17th overall heading into Sunday’s action. That includes literally the best save percentage in the league — by a lot — on the penalty kill. The Leafs boast a .909 down a man; the Buffalo Sabres, in second place, have .897.
7. A troublesome trend with Berube this season is his tendency to keep reverting back to things that haven’t worked. One recent example: reuniting Matthew Knies with Domi and Matthews on the top line. That combination hasn’t clicked at all in a healthy sample this season (44 percent expected goals in over 160 minutes). Back together on Saturday, they logged six-plus minutes. Shot attempts were 14-2 for the Senators, who scored twice.
8. In fairness to Berube, the options for top-line duty aren’t great at this point. But why not give more run to groups that have hinted at something? In 55 minutes of Knies-Matthews-Cowan, for example, the Leafs won over 60 percent of expected goals and outscored teams 2-0.
