The NHL trade deadline is a week away and we’re diving deep into the numbers behind the names from Chris Johnston’s trade board.
Which defensemen can actually move the needle? Which defensemen can capably fill depth roles? Which defensemen should teams probably avoid?
That’s the name of the game here. Let’s dive in.
Top-pair defensemen
John Carlson
It was a bit shocking to see John Carlson’s name on the trade board given how long he’s been a member of the Capitals. It’s still hard to imagine they’ll move him, but this is a business and if the Capitals are out of it, Carlson would instantly become one of the top prizes of the market. Even at 36, he’s still that good.
Carlson is, without question, the best offensive defenseman on the market. He creates chances at an elite rate, according to tracking done by Corey Sznajder, and is a machine in the offensive zone which has led to him scoring 46 points in 55 games this season. That’s not just because he gets power-play time either; Carlson’s 1.73 points per 60 at five-on-five is close to a career high and actually ranks seventh this year among all defensemen. Carlson is still elite with the puck in-zone, which has him on pace for an Offensive Rating of plus-14. That’ll move the needle.
There are some concerns defensively and in transition. Carlson allows a lot of controlled entries against and has the worst impact on expected goals against on the Capitals. Carlson does play the toughest minutes and may look better in a lesser role, but it’s still probably unfair to expect him to be above-average in that realm. It also doesn’t help that his ability to move the puck up ice, while still fine, isn’t what it once was.
Even with that in mind, what Carlson brings to the table offensively is more than enough to make him the most valuable defenseman on the market … if he gets traded, that is.
Dougie Hamilton
We’ve talked a lot about Dougie Hamilton over the past month after his name first surfaced in trade rumors. The key point: He still has game, and that’s been proven even more since being healthy-scratched. Since sitting in the press box, Hamilton has a 52 percent expected goals rate at five-on-five and seems to be the only Devils defenseman who can outscore opponents with 64 percent of actual goals; everyone else is below 45 percent. He also has 11 points in 13 games as his production has predictably regressed to the mean.
Even when he wasn’t scoring, though, Hamilton still had value as he was adding a lot for the Devils defensively. He was limiting chances at the highest rate and playing the team’s toughest minutes. The big change in Hamilton’s microstats profile to make that happen was fewer mistakes, both on retrievals and exits. A safer Hamilton turned into a better defensive Hamilton — though the lack of risk may be part of the lesser offense.
Finding the right balance is key, and that also means finding the right fit and role. A second-pair role with a defensive partner is the most suitable place for Hamilton, who still has a lot to offer as a No. 2 defenseman. With a projected Net Rating of plus-7.0, Hamilton may not be worthy of his $9 million paycheck, but he’s shown lately that he’s not far off. For a team in need of offense from the blue line with tough-minutes experience, he’s worth the risk.
Top-four defensemen
Justin Faulk
The St. Louis Blues have struggled mightily this season, but Justin Faulk has been one of the team’s few bright spots. That’s thanks to a plus-3.5 Defensive Rating, one of the highest marks on the team. As he’s grown, Faulk’s value has stayed consistently in the No. 3 range, but the skew between offense and defense has shifted as he’s become a more responsible player.
This season, the Blues allow 0.15 fewer expected goals against per 60 with Faulk on the ice, the best mark of his career. That’s especially impressive given how much time he’s spent with Cam Fowler, who’s had a rough season. Faulk has the highest projected Defensive Rating of any defenseman available.
While Faulk is unlikely to deliver high-end value, he may be the only defenseman on the market who’s a plus at both ends of the ice. Carlson and Hamilton are better, but neither would be mistaken for a defensive stalwart. None of the defensemen below offer much of anything offensively. Faulk fits a unique second-pair niche on the market and has the tough-minutes experience to move up the lineup.
Faulk’s ability to move the puck has waned over the years, but as long as he’s playing with someone who can, he can be an intriguing addition to a contender.
Rasmus Ristolainen
The key to Rasmus Ristolainen’s perceived glow-up was putting him in the right role. Away from tough minutes, he’s been able to thrive defensively with four solid years of suppressing chances with the Flyers.
As he’s aged, though, it’s become unfair to expect much offensively. He’s on pace for a minus-9.7 Offensive Rating this season as the Flyers have been unable to generate many chances or goals with Ristolainen on the ice.
Ristolainen is still valued like a defensive No. 4, but that offensive decline is concerning for how much longer he can play up to a top-four level. It’s possible some of that has to do with the team environment, but I’d be a little wary of paying a presumably high price tag for a player that could be offensively stifling.
Mario Ferraro
It is really difficult to judge a defenseman getting big minutes in a difficult environment. Are their numbers poor because of the team around them, or is the team poor because they rely so heavily on a weak player? That’s been the Mario Ferraro conundrum for the last few years.
This year, at least, he’s showing what he can do with more support around him, even as his responsibilities increase. In a tough-minutes role, Ferraro is holding his own and playing at a No. 4 level, which bodes well for playing in the top four of a more capable team.
I still have some concerns with Ferraro given how weak his microstats profile looks, where he struggles in all three zones. But that might have more to do with his role, considering it looked much better last season when Ferraro was getting secondary matchups.
Connor Murphy
While he may not deliver much offensively, Connor Murphy has long been a steady defensive presence. There hasn’t been a single season in Murphy’s career where his team has given up more chances with him on the ice. This year’s relative impact on expected goals against of minus-0.49 per 60 is a career-best mark. Murphy’s projected plus-1.3 Defensive Rating is among the highest available.
The question with Murphy is whether he can still deliver that in a top-four role at 32. While he’s projected to be a fringe No. 4, that’s not how he’s been used on a bad Chicago Blackhawks team. That leaves some doubt about whether his ability can still scale up the lineup, but given his track record of doing so, Murphy feels like a worthy gamble for teams in need of a stopper.
Depth
Zach Whitecloud
Projected Net Rating: minus-3.6
Once an analytics darling, Whitecloud struggled immensely in Vegas this season. But he’s starting to pick things up in Calgary, where he’s played extremely well on a shutdown pair with Kevin Bahl. Whitecloud had a 46 percent xG with Vegas in a sheltered role, but is at 52 percent in a tougher role on a worse team. Go figure.
It’s only been eight games, but it’s enough to believe Whitecloud still has it. His zone exit numbers this year are solid and he could provide a real boost to a team’s third pair.
Jamie Oleksiak
Projected Net Rating: minus-5.2
At his best, Oleksiak was able to handle tough minutes and was a genuine defensive asset thanks to his size. Those days look behind him as he’s fallen down the Seattle Kraken depth chart and is now playing sheltered minutes. Oleksiak is still great at defending entries and has used that skill to suppress chances well in a third-pair role. Just don’t expect anything more — especially with the puck.
Mason Lohrei
Projected Net Rating: minus-4.6
Lohrei profiles as a risky empty-calorie scorer. He can move the puck and make plays, but he also makes a ton of mistakes that often lead to a lot of chances the other way. This year they aren’t going in as much as they should, leading to a goal rate (56 percent) that far exceeds Lohrei’s expected goals rate (44 percent). From Boston’s perspective, he’s a savvy sell-high candidate.
Braden Schneider
Projected Net Rating: minus-6.3
I don’t see a lot of the allure here aside from size and handedness. Schneider has been thrust into a top-four role this season and struggled immensely under the weight. The Rangers give up a lot with him on the ice as he’s had a difficult time moving the puck in his own zone. Schneider is young enough that he may still figure it out, but his numbers have never really leapt off the page — even when he was playing easier minutes.
Andrew Peeke
Projected Net Rating: minus-5.7
Peeke briefly found his footing last year with the Bruins, but has reverted back to his usual self this season where he’s struggling at both ends of the ice. He’s an extremely poor puck-mover who doesn’t defend as well as his reputation suggests. The right fit on the third pair may suit him, but he’s probably best suited as a depth option.
Logan Stanley
Projected Net Rating: minus-6.9
Being extremely tall and scoring lots of goals may net the Jets a premier asset for Stanley, whose defensive play is still as bleak as ever. Despite earning sheltered minutes for most of his career, the Jets have allowed more chances against with Stanley on the ice in each of the last five seasons. Stanley is projected to have the worst Defensive Rating of all the players available.
This year, Stanley has been especially porous, a result of being one of the league’s weakest defensemen on puck retrievals and zone exits. Stanley is too mistake-prone to be treated as an everyday option in a team’s top six. Buyer beware — he won’t shoot 14 percent (!) forever.
Luke Schenn
Projected Net Rating: minus-7.6
Father Time has really caught up with Schenn, this season with Winnipeg’s xG difference per 60 dropping 0.59 with Schenn on the ice — with an even larger drop in actual goals. Schenn can still retrieve pucks and deny entries, but gets burned for chances often and is a complete non-factor with the puck. A potentially strong room presence as a No. 7.
Simon Benoit
Projected Net Rating: minus-8.0
Statistically one of the league’s weakest defensemen in three of the last four seasons. This year, he’s not getting bailed out by percentages which has helped show his true value. At his best, Benoit can defend well and elevate his game when it matters, but is best suited as a one-dimensional depth piece.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, Hockey Stat Cards and All Three Zones
