After the disastrous trip out west for this UNC Basketball team, if you had said with one week to go the Tar Heels had a realistic shot at getting a top four seed in the ACC Tournament, it’s very likely no one would have believed you. Yet, thanks to how the Tar Heels have rallied without Caleb Wilson, plus the way other results have broken for them, that’s exactly the position Carolina is in as they tip off against Clemson on Tuesday night.
Honestly, though, as big as a win against Clemson would be to help their post season prospects, there’s a couple of bigger things happening at the Smith Center. Namely— Senior Night, which means it’s the last time Elijah Davis and Seth Trimble will play on Roy Williams Court. That means coach Hubert Davis is going to be heavy into his feels as his son and what may be one of the last four-year star players for Carolina take their flowers and soak in the home crowd one more time.
Trimble specifically has been the type of player that fans have just fallen in love with. Despite having the fracture in his arm earlier the year, he’s come back to be an important part of the team and connected on one of the most iconic shots in Smith Center history. You have to know he’ll have some mixed feelings going into the game, but it should provide extra motivation to topple a good Clemson team.
Right when you thought Clemson was doing another one of their late-season flounders, they added to Louisville’s woes by beating the Cardinals on Saturday. It stopped a four-game skid for the Tigers, and not exactly to the top of the conference with Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Florida State all getting a win as well as Duke who, let’s be honest, has gotten everyone they’ve faced but the Tar Heels so far.
Their stumbling has opened up the chance at a top four seed where just a couple weeks ago it looked pretty much out of reach. Clemson and Carolina enter Tuesday’s game tied at 11-5 in the league so a win over the Tigers gives Carolina a one game lead over them with one game left for both. Important to note for position is that NC State is now one game back of both before they face Duke tonight, and a loss there will put State two games back of the winner.
While the new unbalanced schedule has shifted some tiebreakers around to where a win doesn’t necessarily lock up at least a four seed, it’ll be pretty close to a certainty. Between that and trying to keep momentum for postseason play, both teams will have every motivation to leave Chapel Hill with a win.
The Tigers come in 35th in KenPom and the second toughest team to score against in the conference, only being bested by Duke. They only allow 31% shooting from behind the arc, but also only shoot 34% themselves. They also back up that defense by rebounding the ball, ranking third in the league in defensive rebounds. They do have trouble getting their own misses—only standing at 12th—but the make you work for your shots, and with Wilson unlikely to play Tuesday the other bigs for Carolina will need to work to negate their strength on missed shots.
Henri Veesaar will have a size advantage as Clemson doesn’t have anyone over 6’11”, but the two leading rebounds for Clemson—RJ Godfrey and Carter Welling—replicate the rebounding success of Wilson and Veesaar pretty well. Those two are the only two averaging double-digits in points per game, even Jestin Porter who by far attempts the most threes on the team is only averaging 9.9/game.
Still the Tigers are averaging 74.7 points a game as a team, so they spread it around, and it will require full court work from everyone on defense to match the Tigers.
Tip off will be at 7 PM Tuesday night—note that time because at the beginning of the year it was a 9 PM start—at the Smith Center.
