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Flood forecasters in Quebec say warmer temperatures in the next two weeks could lead to localized flooding across the province.
“Floods can occur just about any time during the winter. All you need is a warm period,” said Alain Rousseau, a professor at the Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS) in Quebec City.
“If it’s warm enough throughout several days, then you can have ice jams, and ice jams can create floods.”
Michel Baraër, a professor at Montreal’s École de technologie supérieure, said colder than normal temperatures in December, January and February increase the risk, noting lakes and rivers have thick ice cover these days.
“The ice is really strong. It takes more energy to break it, and it breaks in huge pieces instead of small,” he said.
“These big blocks can be jammed by a bridge or a turn in the river, and then they might accumulate, collapsing on each other and creating a kind of dam,” Baraër said, adding these kinds of dams can cause “a lot of damage.”
The provincial website that tracks water levels said Wednesday there were no floods currently reported anywhere in the province.
But Baraër said temperatures forecast for the next 10 days will be warm enough to start melting some of that thick ice.
“We’re talking about five to six days of positive temperatures reaching 10 C or more in the day, but also not freezing overnight,” he said.
“I’m going to follow what happens because there is a risk of winter flooding.”
Spring flood risk lower
Both experts said that more traditional spring flooding caused by snow melt depends on a number of factors and is difficult to predict.
But they said there’s no red flags so far.
“There’s no particular worry regarding the amount of water we have in the snow,” Baraër said.
Rousseau agrees.
“I would say it’s a below-average year that we’ve been having,” he said.
Baraër said one positive aspect of winter flooding can be that it reduces the likelihood of intense flooding in spring.
“If this episode is intense in March, this water is no longer going to be available in spring, so it shouldn’t influence too much the floods we get then,” he said.
