PEORIA, Ariz. — Wednesday morning, 17 months after Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery, the primary spokesman for the San Diego Padres issued a bold declaration followed by a gentle tap on the brakes.
“Joe’s capable of being the best pitcher in the National League,” Padres manager Craig Stammen said. “I think the way that he puts work in and the attention to detail — you know, we’ve seen other pitchers come back from Tommy John and have spectacular seasons, so I’m not going to put that past Joe.
“Now, is that, like, a 100 percent chance that’s going to happen? No, but I know we’re going to get a very good version of Joe Musgrove.”
A few hours later, Musgrove pitched in a televised contest for the first time since Oct. 2, 2024, when he took the mound in the National League Wild Card Series with a damaged ulnar collateral ligament and threw until he couldn’t anymore. Wednesday’s outcome: a positive overall step toward an official return — and a reminder that, even amid modern medical advancements, any recovery from Tommy John surgery still requires patience.
“I’ve talked to a lot of guys that say they don’t feel normal or don’t feel back to themselves (until) about that two-year mark,” Musgrove said after throwing 60 pitches, 36 for strikes, over two-plus innings of an exhibition against Great Britain. “I’ve got all these things that I’m aware of, but I’m not really trying to put myself into one of those classes right now. I’m kind of just taking the ball every fifth day and see how I recover and adjust as we go.
“But yeah, I’d like to come back and be able to stay healthy and make my starts. I don’t expect to make 180, 200 innings, but I expect to be able to take the ball consistently throughout the year and be productive.”
More than five decades since a Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher underwent the eponymous operation, Tommy John surgery has prolonged countless careers. Yet, it has not become an infallible elixir.
Consider the list of notable starters who received the procedure between 2023 and 2024. Jacob deGrom, Matthew Boyd and Kris Bubic were All-Stars in 2025. Meanwhile, Sandy Alcantara, Antonio Senzatela and Germán Márquez endured career-worst results. Many other pitchers remain in pursuit of their previous form.
For now, the Padres are tying much of their ambitions to Musgrove’s work ethic and surgically repaired arm. The right-hander was one of the National League’s top performers from 2021 to 2023, compiling a 3.05 ERA and delivering a pair of memorable postseason starts.
Now, in 2026, San Diego’s rotation is uncertain.
Like Musgrove, Michael King has a checkered injury history. Márquez and two-time Tommy John patient Walker Buehler are among several low-cost signees vying for a job at the back of the rotation. Musgrove, this year’s likely No. 3 starter, could help stabilize the entire unit.
“I haven’t really put many expectations on myself, other than just go out and compete,” Musgrove said. “I feel like I’m one of the best at going out and competing regardless of what I got. … Expectation-wise, just get the competitive juices back and make sure I’m out there competing. Desires, I got a lot of those.”
After months of rehabilitating at a more casual pace, Musgrove expected the pitch clock to present an adjustment. Despite an understandable amount of rust, he had hoped his command Wednesday would be better. Musgrove was pulled in the first inning after 26 pitches — a walk, a strikeout and three consecutive singles. Exhibition rules permitted him to return in the second. He completed that inning by getting Great Britain’s best player, New York Yankees second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr., to pop out.
Earlier, in the first inning, Musgrove struck out Chisholm with a 95.2 mph fastball at the top of the zone. He finished the afternoon with an average four-seam velocity of 94 mph, up a full tick from where he sat in 2024. His 60 total pitches were at least 15 more than he had thrown in a game-like setting this spring.
“I feel like last half of that last inning was a little tougher for me to get it up to 93, 94 (mph),” Musgrove said. “But I feel like it’s somewhat expected as I’m building up pitch count. … Hopefully, this raises the bar for me, and next time, I’ll be able to maintain a little longer.”
Musgrove’s next start could come in an actual Cactus League game, perhaps against the Los Angeles Angels. From there, he presumably would pitch only twice more before making his official post-surgery return in late March. The Padres’ season-opening series against the Detroit Tigers is less than a month away.
And in some ways, Musgrove is just embarking on a long road back toward where he once was.
“To me, this is another step,” Musgrove said. “I think getting in a big-league game and facing big-league hitters in a big stadium — night game, things like that — will be another adjustment. But for me, I’m still kind of checking boxes and building up.”
