Ryan Wohl details his best bet for Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay which is taking place on UFC 326 Early Prelims.
The second fight of the UFC 326 Early Prelims features a Light Heavyweight contest between Rafael Tobias and Diyar Nurgozhay. Tobias is 14-1 with 11 finishes, and recently beat Jair de Oliveira via submission to earn a UFC contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. Nurgozhay, 28, is 10-2 but is 0-2 in the UFC. The Early Preloims begin at 5:30 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Check out my best bet for Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay on the UFC 326 Early Prelims.
Tobias trains at Chute Boxe Monstro, an offspring of the legendary Chute Boxe gym that has featured the likes of Charles Oliveira. This is Tobias’ UFC debut after being awarded a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in September 2025. Tobias is 14-1 in his MMA career with 11 victories by submission or knockout.
In this matchup, Tobias is the favorite at -180 with Nurgozhay being a +150 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 1.5 rounds, with the under -120 and the over -110.
In this contest, both fighters have the same standing reach (74″) while being 6’2″. Tobias and Nurgozhay are each versatile fighters, and even though Nurgozhay has more UFC experience, Tobias has more fights on his resume. Tobias’s explosiveness and aggressiveness give him the edge in this contest. Since his last three victories have all come by submission or knockout, it is best to back him at -115 to pick up the finish.
