Airline tickets could soon become more expensive as rising oil prices driven by the escalating Middle East conflict begin to ripple through the aviation industry. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby is already warning that if fuel prices remain elevated, airlines will soon have little choice but to raise fares.
Oil prices have surged in recent days as the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran intensifies, raising concerns across the airline industry that fuel costs could soon translate into higher ticket prices.
Energy markets have reacted sharply to the escalating geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Brent crude has surged and in some cases briefly traded above $90 per barrel amid fears that the conflict could disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical chokepoints in global energy supply. Oil future prices surged 35% this week in the USA, the highest ever weekly jump ever recorded, after President Donald Trump demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran.
That matters enormously for airlines.
Fuel is typically an airline’s single largest operating expense after labor, and sudden price spikes can have a dramatic impact on profitability. To compound the matter, when consumers must spend more to fuel their cars and homes, they have less disposable income to buy airline tickets.
Airlines Are Especially Vulnerable Right Now
One key difference between today and earlier eras of aviation is that most U.S. airlines no longer hedge their fuel costs. Practically, that means they are directly exposed to rising oil prices and jet fuel costs have already jumped sharply in recent days, with spot prices reaching levels not seen since 2022.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby has already warned investors that the surge in fuel prices linked to the Iran conflict could significantly impact airline finances if it persists.
“If it continues we’ll feel it in Q2 also. And if fuel stays at these levels, ticket prices will probably start moving up pretty quickly.”
Kirby’s chilling comments came during a discussion on aviation at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences on Thursday (March 5, 2026).
Because airlines sell tickets months in advance, they cannot immediately pass those higher costs on to passengers. Instead, carriers often absorb the initial impact before gradually raising fares or adjusting capacity.
The Wild Card: How Long The Conflict Lasts
The biggest variable right now is the duration of the conflict.
Energy markets are reacting not just to current supply disruptions but to fears that the situation could escalate further and threaten shipping routes across the Persian Gulf.
If the conflict spreads or if tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz grins to a sustained pause, oil prices will climb even higher.
For airlines, that scenario would represent a worst-case outcome.
Higher fuel costs, longer flight routes due to airspace closures, and operational disruptions are already creating additional strain on the industry.
Assurances from the Trump administration that it would insure oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and in some cases, provide U.S. Navy escorts, have done little to ally fears and stabilize prices.
Just 10 days ago I wrote that a “black swan” event could turn the airline industry from profit to loss and it appears that may be happening now.
CONCLUSION
Airline ticket prices are not rising overnight, but if oil prices remain elevated due to the expanding Middle East conflict, travelers should expect airfares to creep higher in the weeks and months ahead.
Fuel is simply too large a component of airline costs to ignore. And when oil surges, airlines will have little choice but to pass at least part of that increase along to passengers, even though the competitive nature of the global market makes this difficult.
Should you buy your summer travel today before the price goes up? In a world that is so unstable, I hesitate…yet I’m thinking about it (perhaps the subject of another post).
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