How good do the Celtics need Jayson Tatum to be? Scouting Boston rookie Hugo Gonzalez

BOSTON — One of the most amazing things about the Golden State Warriors’ 2022 championship was that they did it in Klay Thompson’s first year back from an Achilles injury.
Integrating high-usage players is hard, and the higher the usage, the tougher the challenge. Even if it’s a player who was already there, in the system, enough has changed in his absence that the re-adjustment can be rocky. That observation seemed particularly relevant on Sunday, with Boston attempting to reintegrate Jayson Tatum in a marquee TV game against Cleveland.
Thompson, who tore his right Achilles tendon in November 2020, has a lot in common with Tatum. Thompson also returned to a Warriors team that was rolling in his absence. Ironically, Thompson’s team beat Tatum’s in the NBA Finals, with Thompson taking a big chunk of the defensive challenge on Tatum. To close the circle, Tatum saw Thompson — now toiling away for a hapless Dallas Mavericks team — and dapped him up before the start of the second quarter during his return game on Friday.
That Warriors team started the year 29-7, and then stumbled to a 17-15 mark in the 32 games Thompson played, as they strained to reintegrate them into their machine. And, to be fair, some of the other players who overachieved in that 29-9 start returned to earth. (An extended Draymond Green injury right after Thompson returned was also a factor.)
Thompson launched away in that stretch as he tried to regain his game, with a career-high 29.6 percent usage rate and nearly career lows in efficiency, before he dialed things down to 22.7 percent during the Warriors’ postseason run.
Sound familiar?
Boston overachieved its way to a 41-21 record in Tatum’s absence, and winning the first two games in Tatum’s return is no guarantee that the next 18 games will be an easy ride. The next two, for instance are at the San Antonio Spurs and at the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Tatum, meanwhile, is definitely operating via Thompson’s rip-off-the-Band-Aid-and-go model, with a 30.6 percent usage mark through two games and 49.9 percent true shooting. Boston inserted him into the starting lineup immediately and played him 27 minutes in his first game against Dallas, a total that seemed likely headed to 30 before garbage-time substitutions intervened.
Tatum, it should be said, has looked about as good physically as anyone could have hoped. He got Sprited on an easy dunk against Dallas and has subsisted mostly on jump shots in his first two games, but he’s been active on the glass and his rate of paint shots isn’t any different from his 2024-25 season. In terms of his movement, I haven’t seen any red flags.
A more interesting question for the Celtics, perhaps, is “How good do they need him to be?” What level of Tatum reasonably gets Boston to the finals? What about a series win against the likes of the Thunder or Spurs? Remember, Golden State didn’t need Thompson to be an All-Star in 2022; they just needed a reliable sidekick to Steph Curry who could also help carry the defense over the hump.
That’s where the surprise of Boston’s first 62 games is so impactful — it dramatically lowers the bar for which version of Tatum is required to regain the title. When Boston won in 2024, Tatum was arguably one of the five best players in the league, finishing sixth in the MVP voting and making First Team All-NBA.
Does Tatum need to hit that level again? Recent evidence would say that the Celtics could get out of the East with less, such as in Sunday’s win at Cleveland when the Celtics’ positional size, depth and defense seemed like major advantages with or without Tatum. (To be clear, Tatum’s addition only doubles down on that, especially with him basically playing point guard at 6-foot-8.)
As our Joe Vardon already pointed out, guard Derrick White and center Neemias Queta have been advanced stats gods for Boston this season. In fact, the Celtics have been dominant in their minutes with that duo, pantsing opponents by 13.5 points per 100 possessions when they’re on the floor together — a number that actually goes up without Jaylen Brown. (Partial explanation: As a trio, they almost exclusively face starters; White-Queta have had chances to team up on second units while Brown rests.)
Other player development successes — seriously, the Celtics have become absolute warlocks at this — have seen Baylor Scheierman suddenly turn into one of the most dependable 3-and-D guys in the league and reserves such as Hugo Gonzalez (more on him below), Luka Garza and Jordan Walsh consistently deliver the goods.
In keeping with this theme, the Celtics went on a 14-2 run with Tatum on the bench in the third quarter in Cleveland and won easily despite Tatum being a minus-3.
The other piece of this, of course, is Brown. While Brown won the finals MVP in 2024, that was more clearly a Tatum-driven team. The same can no longer be said in 2025-26, with Brown sporting a staggering 36.3 percent usage rate and basically becoming a possession sponge asked to carry some lineups that are light on shot creation. With Brown performing at an All-NBA level, it eases the burden of how much juice Boston needs from Tatum against locked-in starting fives.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, though. The Celtics, even with Tatum, still have some weaknesses that linger from a year ago when they lost to the New York Knicks in the second round. Tatum’s return doesn’t totally solve that. The Celtics are last in the NBA in pace and last in the rate of shot attempts at the rim, with an even lower rate than a year ago. Tatum only exacerbates this; he plays a methodical style, his own percentage of rim shots is almost exactly at the team’s average and most of his assists are of the draw-and-kick variety.
That Celtics’ tendency to ping the ball around looking for a perfect jump shot while we scream “Would you please just shoot a layup once?” is still worth contemplating, especially against teams such as New York that can throw multiple elite wing defenders at Brown and Tatum.
Statistically, shockingly little has changed. Boston has the league’s second-best offense, just as it did a year ago. It’s built on voluminous 3-point attempts and a microscopic turnover rate, just as it was a year ago. That changed dramatically last spring against the Orlando Magic and, especially, New York, when the Celtics’ 2-point shooting cratered. Can the scheme survive the playoff crucible this time?
We can’t answer that question on March 10. What we can say is that we are officially in a position where it is a relevant question to discuss. Tatum’s return will likely have its share of bumps and jitters over the coming six weeks, just as Thompson’s did, before we get to the part that truly matters in the second round of the playoffs. (Apologies to whoever earns the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the East, but you’re roadkill.)
What Boston showed already, however, is that it has enough depth and talent that it doesn’t require the 2024 version of Tatum to be a top contender in the playoffs. And what Tatum showed, in the two games he’s played, is that he might not be too far off from that 2024 version anyway.
Celtics rookie Hugo Gonzalez has provided energy off the bench. Ken Blaze / Imagn Images
Rookie of the Week: Hugo González, 6-6 SG/SF, Boston
(Note: This section won’t necessarily profile the best rookie of the week. Just the one that I’ve been watching.)
González only played seven minutes in Boston’s win over Cleveland and may see his role shrivel now that Tatum is back. On the other hand, he had 18 points, 16 rebounds and three steals in a win over the Milwaukee Bucks on March 2 and has been good enough to earn regular rotation minutes for one of the league’s best teams. Since we might not see much of him the rest of the way, let’s talk about him now.
The biggest thing that stands out about “You-Go” is his defense and energy. At 6-foot-6 with a solid frame and good lateral quickness, he’s usually been able to hold his own against just about anybody. The numbers back up the eye test; he has solid rates of blocks and steals and has drawn 17 offensive fouls in his 916 minutes.
Additionally, his impact stats paint a favorable picture, with the Celtics outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.6 per 100 in his minutes. While some of this owes to being part of dominant Boston bench units as mentioned above, at the very least it makes a case that he can keep things going and not get in the way.
Although a wing, González also profiles much bigger on the glass, where his 12.2 percent rebound rate would put him in solid company with most fours. The eye test says he bounds off the floor, flies in from the corners on offense and chases the ball out of its zone on either hand, so this looks real.
Offensively, González is best in transition because he’s a good athlete who can finish at the rim; he’s shooting 74.5 percent inside 3 feet, and 10 of his 66 2-point baskets this year are dunks.
The worrying part is everything else. González has an iffy outside shot and struggles to make the right read at NBA speed. He also, at this point, has a very limited handle. Those things conspire to limit his offensive impact, especially in the half court where he is mostly asked to chill in the corner. He has only a 12.0 percent usage rate — maybe not so bad with the talent around him — and although he can score on cuts and putbacks, he doesn’t draw fouls.
The swing skill, as ever, is outside shooting. González has only made 11 of his 24 free throws and shot just 26.7 percent from 3 over the course of his previous two seasons in Spain. As a Celtic, he has knocked down enough 3s so far to keep defenses honest: 34 in 100 tries. Right now, he only takes the wide-open ones, but those are the ones Boston needs him to fire away and knock down. Teams won’t guard him in the playoffs and will dare him to make those.
Given that he just turned 20 in February and already is a plus rebounder and defender, the Celtics won’t need González to show that much offensive progress to end up with a positive return on a late first-round pick. With Brown and Tatum dominating possessions, a defensive bulldog who can play off-ball has obvious long-term fit potential. And given Boston’s player development successes over the past two years, it’s probably about the best place González could be to maximize whatever offensive skill he has.




