Buckeyetology: Ohio State Projected As Likely No. 8 or 9 Seed in NCAA Tournament Following Strong Finish to Season
Much has happened between the penultimate version of Buckeyetology and this, the final edition.
Coming off its win over then-No. 8 Purdue, Ohio State demolished both Penn State and Indiana to all but secure an NCAA Tournament bid, then erased any doubt about it with a vengeful victory over Iowa in the third round of the Big Ten Tournament. It’s the fourth Quad 1 win on the Buckeyes’ résumé, two of them coming in their four-game winning streak during the first four games of March.
Ohio State battled No. 3 Michigan as well as could be expected in the quarterfinals of the conference tourney, though the Buckeyes ultimately fell four points short in their upset bid. Still, it’s been many years since the Scarlet and Gray had this much momentum heading into an NCAA Tournament. It’s been four years since the Buckeyes have gone dancing at all.
From an Ohio State perspective, all the intrigue for CBS’ Selection Show at 6 p.m. Sunday has shifted to what seed line the Buckeyes end up at. Riding a line between a No. 8 and No. 10 seed, OSU is slated for a manageable first-round game but a much more difficult second-round game if it is to reach its first Sweet 16 in 13 years. Let’s break it down one last time.
NCAA Tournament Outlook
Many say placement as a No. 10 seed is preferred over being a No. 8 seed in the Big Dance. I am one of those people, especially in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
Key Numbers: Ohio State
Overall Record
21-12
Home
13-3
Road
456
NET Ranking
34th
Q1 Record
4-10
Q2 Record
5-1
WAB
30th
There’s a significant gap between the likely No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the 2026 Big Dance, the former being teams that an 8- or 9-seed would see in the second round. Duke, Michigan and Arizona have separated themselves as the three best teams in college basketball, each with a mere two losses on the season entering Saturday. No other Power Conference team has fewer than four.
Florida is the leading candidate for the fourth and final top-seeded spot, currently riding a 12-game winning streak through SEC play. Ohio State probably has an easier path to the Sweet 16 by facing a No. 7 seed and a No. 2 seed. But the most likely seeding for OSU is as a No. 9 or perhaps a No. 8 seed.
The Buckeyes are projected as a 9-seed by the Bracket Matrix, which aggregates 121 expert bracket projections. It’s the top projected nine-seed, in fact. It’s projected to be dancing by all 121 of those brackets. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Ohio State as a No. 8 seed facing No. 9 seed Villanova in the first round and his No. 1 overall seed, Duke, in the second. CBS Sports has them as a No. 8 seed too, facing TCU, then Arizona.
TCU, the team directly behind Ohio State in the Bracket Matrix, bowed out of its conference tournament on Thursday, falling to Kansas in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament. In the previous day’s NET rankings, the rankings the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee uses, the Horned Frogs (38th) were seven spots behind the Buckeyes (31st). In this year’s new, critical metric called Wins Above Bubble (WAB), Ohio State (30th) led TCU (33rd) by three spots on Thursday, with nothing likely to move the needle in TCU’s favor.
Iowa is a No. 9 seed per the Matrix, Lunardi and CBS Sports. The Buckeyes are fresh off a neutral-court win over the Hawkeyes. Two other teams in the Matrix’s No. 8 and No. 9 seed lines have lost in their conference tournaments: Villanova (in an upset by the Big East’s No. 11 seed, Georgetown) and Georgia. Three other teams in those seed lines are still alive in theirs: Saint Louis (Atlantic 10), UCLA (Big Ten) and Utah State (Mountain West). Each of the four projected No. 10 seeds have been sent home from their conference tourneys, though.
Thus, a No. 9 seed has the highest probability for Ohio State, with a No. 8 seed trailing a bit behind. The bottom four No. 11 seeds play in the First Four, so the Buckeyes won’t have to worry about a trip through Dayton.
All that being said, Ohio State is a dangerous team for anyone in the NCAA Tournament. The Buckeyes got healthier and are playing their best basketball at the end of the season. Freshman forward Amare Bynum has stepped up, averaging 12.4 points per game in the strong five-game stretch OSU is riding. He scored 18 points in the team’s probable tourney-clinching win over Indiana.
Bruce Thornton is playing at an All-American level after breaking Ohio State’s scoring record. In the same five-game period, he’s averaging 21.8 points with 4.6 assists and shooting 64.9% from the field. John Mobley Jr. has caught fire at times, and both center Christoph Tilly and a handful of bench players have had their moments. The Buckeyes are playing much better defensively, too.
Ohio State will learn its official NCAA Tournament placement in less than 34 hours.
