Tennessee basketball bracketology live updates, predictions before Selection Sunday

Tennessee basketball is headed to a program-tying sixth straight March Madness appearance and its eighth under coach Rick Barnes.
The Vols (22-10) has mixed results in the SEC Tournament. They began with a 72-62 win over Auburn in the second round, but came up short against Vanderbilt, 75-68, on March 13 at Bridgestone Arena.
Nate Ament carried Tennessee to the win over Auburn, sparking a 20-0 run that bought the Vols a ticket to the quarterfinals. He shot 1-of-13, though, against Vanderbilt the following day.
Here’s a look at Tennessee’s resume, and where it lands in March Madness bracket projections after its loss to Vanderbilt.
Even with the loss in the SEC Tournament, USA TODAY’s Erick Smith, Eddie Timanus and Paul Myerberg’s latest projections kept Tennessee as a No. 5 seed. The Vols would still play No. 12 South Florida in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and the winner would take on either No. 4 Virginia or No. 13 High Point.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi completely flipped his predictions. After multiple mocks with Tennessee playing on the west coast, Lunardi dropped the Vols to a No. 6 seed, where it would play No. 11 Miami (Ohio) in Greenville, South Carolina in the South Region. The RedHawks went undefeated in the regular season, but lost in the MAC quarterfinals against UMass.
Lunardi previously Knox News he expected Tennessee to stay around the No. 5 seed barring a deep run in the SEC Tournament.
“Tennessee’s a bit of a head-scratcher,” he said on March 9. “I think that almost makes a No. 5 seed or maybe a No. 6 seed more likely than less. I don’t think they’re going to outplay that projection at this point.”
CBS Sports shifted Tennessee to the West Region after the Vanderbilt loss, but kept the Vols as a No. 5 seed. It would play No. 12 Yale in Tampa, Florida, and would await the winner of No. 4 Gonzaga and No. 13 Utah Valley.
Tennessee basketball ranking, NET ranking
NET ranking: 19
KenPom ranking: 15
Quad 1 record: 6-10
Quad 2 record: 6-1
Quad 3 record: 3-0
Quad 4 record: 7-0
Tennessee basketball’s NCAA Tournament history under Rick Barnes
Tennessee basketball is in its best stretch in program history under Barnes, now in his 11th season with the Vols. Entering the 2025-26 season, the Vols were coming off consecutive Elite Eight appearances in the NCAA Tournament. They’ve made the tournament seven times and have qualified for the past five years with Barnes.
Before Barnes, Tennessee only made it to the Elite 8 once under former coach Bruce Pearl in the 2009-10 season. Overall, the Vols have 27 NCAA Tournament berths with three Elite Eight appearances but have never made it to the Final Four.
Wynton Jackson covers high school sports for Knox News. Email: [email protected]
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