March 16, 2026 5:30 am EDT
Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
Another Selection Sunday has come and gone, and the stage is set for a classic NCAA Tournament full of twists and turns, buzzer-beaters, heartbreaks and instant household names.
College basketball has an incredible ability to capture the nation’s imagination in March. Even a tournament like last year’s, with few early upsets and all four No. 1 seeds making the Final Four, still has a way of gripping the sports world.
The goal for every team, from Duke to Prairie View A&M, is to end the season by winning twice in Indianapolis. Which squads are most likely to accomplish that feat? Accounting for team quality, style, health and path through the bracket, I took my best stab at ranking the teams most likely to cut down the nets and celebrate under the confetti at Lucas Oil Stadium in three weeks’ time.
Picking out the top three was easy. Deciding how to order them was more challenging. Sorting out the rest of the list was a mess, as well, with many teams exhibiting some “beauty is in the eye of the beholder” tendencies. Consideration was also given to the matchups and locations each team may encounter on their way through the bracket.
Conference ACC Big 12 Big East Big Ten SEC WCC
Region East Midwest South West
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Arizona is the healthiest of this season’s three super-squads, a fact that gives them the slight nudge to the top of the power rankings. The Wildcats captured the Big 12 regular season and tournament crowns, and although they are short on perimeter shooting, they are devastating in the paint and have a superb guard duo in Big 12 player of the year Jaden Bradley and All-Big 12 first teamer Brayden Burries. The Wildcats’ region has a bevy of great backcourts — Wisconsin, Arkansas, Purdue — but their interior dominance should overwhelm those foes.
Led by likely national player of the year Cameron Boozer, Duke has been dominant all season. Jon Scheyer’s Blue Devils sit atop the rankings at analytics sites KenPom and Bart Torvik and are just behind Michigan at EvanMiya. Duke overcame injuries to starters Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II to win the ACC tournament after capturing the regular season title outright. Ngongba could return for the NCAA Tournament, but Foster’s foot fracture and ensuing surgery have him out indefinitely. Duke is still the clear favorite in the East, but the region’s absurd coaching depth — Dan Hurley, Tom Izzo, Rick Pitino, Bill Self — means that the Blue Devils could face serious challenges before the Final Four.
The Wolverines dominated the Big Ten, winning a highly competitive league by an impressive four games. The bruising frontcourt trio of Big Ten player of the year Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson and Aday Mara consistently wears opponents down, and point guard Elliot Cadeau has had a banner season. The Wolverines lost dynamic sixth man L.J. Cason to a torn ACL late in the season, limiting their margin for error. Multiple Big Ten foes pushed them to the limit without Cason, and Purdue controlled the entire second half in Sunday’s Big Ten title game. Dusty May’s team is the favorite to win the Midwest, but Cason’s injury knocks Michigan just below Arizona and Duke.
No. 16 Howard/UMBC
Thursday
Once again, Houston is a top-tier contender with a top-five defense in the country. The Cougars have been to five consecutive Sweet 16s and have a future lottery pick in electric point guard Kingston Flemings. Kelvin Sampson’s team also has three players (Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp, JoJo Tugler) who started in the NCAA championship game last season. The Cougars get the added bonus of playing in the South, where they will feel right at home in Houston should they make the second weekend.
The Gators dominated the SEC regular season, but a surprising blowout loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament semifinals displayed why the reigning champs are a notch below the other No. 1 seeds. Florida’s frontcourt is as good as it gets, but the Gators can be turnover-prone, and their guards have really struggled to make shots, a major strength of last year’s championship team. The Gators’ path is complicated by getting the best No. 2 seed in the field — and having to potentially play a quasi-road game in the Elite Eight against Houston.
No. 16 Lehigh/Prairie View A&M
Friday
The Huskies have slipped in early March, losing at Marquette in the regular season finale and then getting blown out by St. John’s in the Big East tournament final. Still, they have tremendous balance, both between offense and defense and among their scorers. Dan Hurley has been excellent in the NCAA Tournament in recent years, so perhaps all this UConn team needs is to get out of Big East play. The Huskies could get a badly banged-up UCLA team in the second round, but the No. 1 overall seed Duke lurks in a potential Elite Eight matchup.
The Cyclones took a heartbreaking loss in the Big 12 tournament semifinals, losing to Arizona on a buzzer-beater. Iowa State has shown an impressively high level at times, and the senior duo of Joshua Jefferson and Tamin Lipsey gives coach T.J. Otzelberger two veteran playmakers in clutch moments. The Cyclones’ ceiling rises when freshman guards Killyan Toure and Jamarion Batemon make jumpers. Iowa State’s path is not terrifying: Virginia is the lowest-ranked No. 3 seed, and No. 1 seed Michigan struggled in the Big Ten tournament and lost L.J. Cason to injury. Plus, Iowa State fans would pack the United Center in Chicago if the Cyclones make the Sweet 16.
No. 15 Tennessee State
Friday
The preseason No. 1 team in the Associated Press rankings, Purdue showed that form in the Big Ten tournament. The Boilermakers dominated that event, notching convincing wins over Northwestern, Nebraska, UCLA and Michigan en route to the title. A veteran team with a lethal offense displayed impressive defensive grit, and Purdue will need that if it is to win the NCAA Tournament. The Boilermakers might face some tough “neutral” environments, tough: They could play Missouri in St. Louis in the second round, then Gonzaga and Arizona out west in San Jose.
Gonzaga shared the WCC regular-season title with Saint Mary’s and then won the conference tournament for the 12th time in the last 14 seasons. The Zags are led by dominant lefty big man Graham Ike, whose footwork, strength and touch near the basket make him a nightmare matchup in the post. This is coach Mark Few’s highest-ranked defensive unit since the 2017 team that went to the national championship game. The Zags get to play out in Portland early and would be in San Jose for the Sweet 16. Those geographical advantages could be massive.
No. 14 Kennesaw State
Thursday
Can arguably the best offense in the country overcome a shaky defense and win a championship? That probably requires some hot shooting from a team that ranks 12th nationally in 3-point attempt rate. The Fighting Illini lost four games in overtime over their final nine contests, but they do have a bona fide star in freshman guard Keaton Wagler. The Illini’s upside is immense, but their draw is rough, with physical teams at the top of the region in No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Houston. Even worse, that Sweet 16 matchup with the Cougars would be a quasi-road game in Houston.
Don’t look now, but Rick Pitino’s team is red-hot. The Red Storm have won 17 of the past 18 games, with a mirage of an offensive no-show against UConn the only stumble. St. John’s won the Big East regular season and tournament titles. The defense has become a typical Pitino unit, ranking 12th nationally per KenPom, and Zuby Ejiofor’s interior dominance at both ends of the floor provides an elite anchor. Getting a No. 5 seed hurts, though, as does potentially having to face the tournament’s top team, Duke, in the Sweet 16.
No. 12 Northern Iowa
Friday
Any team with two guards like Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas has a chance to make a deep run. The Razorbacks won the SEC tournament behind that duo, and they also got massive contributions from versatile veteran forward Trevon Brazile. They have talent, size and end-of-season momentum, giving them all the makings of a postseason darling. The Hogs’ path is scary, particularly because their region has a bunch of amazing frontcourts (Arizona, Gonzaga, Purdue) that could bulldoze John Calipari’s squad inside. Florida’s demolition of Arkansas in late February (the Gators shot 62 percent on 2s and outrebounded the Razorbacks 51-31) could foreshadow an untimely exit.
The Cavaliers came up just short of an ACC tournament championship, falling in a tough battle against shorthanded Duke. Still, Virginia is a sneaky threat because it has legitimate size, veterans in the backcourt, plenty of shooting and a sparkplug bench piece in freshman guard Chance Mallory. Their draw has some big names — No. 2 seed Iowa State, No. 6 seed Tennessee, No. 7 seed Kentucky — but the Hoos might have the best roster of that bunch. And the region’s No. 1 seed, Michigan, showed some real vulnerability in the Big Ten tournament.
No. 14 Wright State
Friday
Kansas swooned to end the season, but this is still Bill Self with an elite defense and a top NBA Draft talent. The Jayhawks have the Big 12’s defensive player of the year in Flory Bidunga, and point guard Melvin Council is everywhere on both ends of the floor. But the Jayhawks’ ceiling is truly unlocked by the preternatural scoring ability of Darryn Peterson. Unfortunately for the Jayhawks, they landed in a loaded region where Self’s coaching is not much of a differentiator. Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo, Dan Hurley and even Jon Scheyer and Mick Cronin stand in the way of a run to Indianapolis.
The Spartans may have some shortcomings offensively, but they have a lot of pluses for the postseason: They dominate the glass on both ends and are comfortable in a physical half-court game, they have a star point guard who knows how to create for himself and others and they have a coach in Tom Izzo who has repeatedly proven his mettle in the NCAA Tournament. The path is challenging with blue bloods like Duke, UConn, Kansas and UCLA in the same region, but Michigan State is built for success in the postseason.
No. 13 North Dakota State
Thursday
Yes, the Vols are a No. 6 seed. That does not scream “national championship contender”. Head coach Rick Barnes has not been back to the Final Four since he went there with TJ Ford and Texas in 2003, but this Tennessee team has a high floor thanks to its offensive rebounding and stout defense. The star tandem of point guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie and wing Nate Ament can explode for 50-plus points combined on any night. The draw is challenging — plenty of other teams from the Midwest region are on this list — but the Vols have beaten Houston, Vanderbilt and Alabama away from home. They could make a run.
No. 11 SMU/Miami (Ohio)
Friday
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Mar 16, 2026
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