For the 2026 MLB season, I am officially throwing the playbook out the window! The national pastime is evolving; million-dollar offseason moves are shaking up projected lineups, and young phenom talent is shaping the game as we know it today. As the San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees set to tee off the year on March 25, the league is leaning into a high-tech revolution with the debut of the Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) Challenge System, effectively giving players the power to override human umpires with the tap of a helmet. The game is changing right under our noses. Between the San Diego Padres potentially selling for a record-shattering $3 billion and the emergence of “five tool lunatics” like No. 1 prospect Konnor Griffin, the narrative has shifted from “protecting the pastime” to an aggressive pursuit of baseball’s future. With Shohei Ohtani chasing a fifth MVP and the Sacramento Athletics repping a new identity, 2026 isn’t just another season; it’s a total evolution of America Pasttime.
In this article, I share some of my boldest takes and predictions for the 2026 MLB Season. Expect me to say some pretty wild things here; it’ll be a refreshing break from the typical ’safe’ analysis. Grab your seat and some popcorn, we’re diving into some predictions that may shock you out of your shoes.
1. The Colorado Rockies win 65+ games
As I mentioned before, this is sure to be a bold prediction article for the 2026 MLB Season. So, why don’t I grab your attention right away with a white-hot take? Yes, I’m going there. After a historic 119-loss disaster of a season in 2025, a 65-win season would actually represent a massive 22-game improvement, and that’s my prediction. With the arrival of the “Moneyball” architect, Paul DePodesta, the Rockies are finally moving into a “data-driven” mindset in the front office.
Hiring DePodesta as President of Baseball Operations was the biggest offseason move for the Mile High. DePodesta was the brains behind the Moneyball Blueprint, helping Billy Beane revolutionize baseball. The Rockies are notoriously criticized for being technologically behind, and this change to the front office signals a shift toward advanced analytics that, hopefully, provides an advantage rather than a disadvantage when playing in Coors Field. DePodesta isn’t the only front-office member who moves the needle for me. Newly acquired General Manager John Byrnes has overseen the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ scouting and player development for the past 11 years. Without looking into it any further, the sounds of administrative names intertwined with World Series and successful franchises would make me stoked as a Rockies fan. As for the personnel, Byrnes went right to work, doing his best to professionalize the pitching rotation with veteran stability, making it look more like a big-league rotation. Acquiring the arms of Jose Quintana, Michael Lorenzen, and Tomoyuki Sugano provides roughly 450+ innings for the roster. The Rockies had the fewest quality starts in the league, so revamping the rotation with guys that have potential to make it past the 4th inning is huge for a bullpen that was heavily taxed in 2025. These three veterans are pitching absolutely lights out for their respective countries in the World Baseball Classic, which should be an exhilarating feeling for Colorado fans rolling into the year.
The three free agent starting pitchers signed by the Colorado Rockies have combined for a perfect 0.00 ERA during the 2026 World Baseball Classic.
Michael Lorenzen, Italy – 4.2 IP, 0 R
Tomoyuki Sugano, Japan – 4.0 IP, 0 R
Jose Quintana, Colombia – 3.0 IP, 0 R
— Patrick Lyons (@PatrickDLyons) March 12, 2026
Ezequiel Tovar looks to bounce back to his MVP-19 and Gold Glove season; Silver Slugger Hunter Goodman returns; Willi Castro signs for 2 years, looking to make a big impact in the infield and outfield. On the trade block, the Rockies acquired speedy Jake McCarthy and veteran Edouard Julien. Between a revitalized Zac Veen (who gained 43 pounds of muscle this offseason), the Gold Glove defense of Brenton Doyle, the 20/20 ceiling of Jordan Beck, homegrown Chase Dollander, and pop production from Mickey Moniak, they could start taking advantage of the Coors Effect; they could start turning this around.
PECOTA projections show the Rockies winning 61 games, and pushing that to 65 requires a little bit of DePodesta Moneyball magic, prospect development, and veteran presence. It isn’t about making it to the playoffs for the Rockies in 2026; it’s about not being the punchline anymore. With the Moneyball management at the helm and a rotation with some big-league names, 65 wins shouldn’t be a hot take, but a floor for the Rockies moving forward.
2. The Pittsburgh Pirates make the Wild Card
The NL Central is wide open and has been for a good while. While the Brewers and Cubs are the favorites, the Pirates have made some intriguing changes this offseason. With Paul Skenes on your roster, there will always be a glimmer of hope. The rotation feels strong, and the lineup has a new look to it, and I’m projecting an 83-79 floor. The Pirates led the league in one-run losses with 35 and finished with a 71-91 record. I see a season similar to the 2025 Cincinnati Reds, who won 83 games and secured a Wild Card spot.
Paul Skenes, the Cy Young favorite; the return of Jared Jones; the arrival of Bubba Chandler; and the veteran presence of Mitch Keller are gonna be exciting to watch in black and gold. The Pirates signed Ryan O’Hearn to a 2-year deal. He brings consistent .800+ OPS and veteran leadership to the clubhouse. They also acquired Brandon Lowe in a trade with the Rays, which will provide the necessary left-handed power to take advantage of the PNC Park short porch in right. I also don’t want to overlook Spencer Horwitz, who finished 2025 with a 119 wRC+. A full year of him and a healthy Oniel Cruz gives Pittsburgh a great look on offense. If those additions aren’t enough, wait for the Cinderella story spark that will enter the lineup sometime throughout the season, Konnor Griffin. Absolute phenom is the only way to describe him; he’s MLB’s number 1 prospect and is dominating Spring Training and destroyed in Double-A last year, slashing .333/.415/.527 with 21 HRs and 65 SBs. 65 total stolen bases… That’s what I like to call the “Elly De La Cruz” effect: a five-tool stud who can play middle infield or anywhere in the outfield. The X-factor that the Priates will need for a Wild Card playoff run.
I want to show you a statistical regression, but the good kind. In 2025, the Pirates lost 35 games by one run, and historically, teams that lose an unusually high number of close games like this tend to see a massive correction the following year. If the Pirates play .500 ball in one-run games in 2026, that’s a 9-12 win swing.
3. Paul Skenes wins the NL Cy Young
With all this Pirates talk, it makes me want to cough up this take that I have been waiting to express. After a unanimous 2025 NL Cy Young victor, led by a 1.97 ERA, Paul Skenes is a candidate to repeat in 2026. He is the certified favorite to become the first back-to-back winner since Jacob deGrom. Skenes is an alien to Major League hitters, pitching a triple-digit fastball with a ’splinker’ and sweeper that generated 30.1% whiff rate. Well-known analyst Jeff Passan projects an 18-win season with 251 strikeouts over 206 innings. If he maintains his 0.95 WHIP, continuing to add extra volume, he won’t just be the Cy Young winner, but a coronation of the pitcher on Earth.
Let’s compare Skenes to other NL Cy Young favorites to show some perspective on how he has the edge over these candidates. While Logan Webb relies on ground balls, the defense behind Skenes doesn’t even factor into the equation. Skenes projected an 11.2 K (which is significantly higher than Yamamoto’s 9.5 or Webb’s 8.1). Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a near-favorite that pitches for a stacked 6-man starting rotation. At the same time, Skenes is the undisputed ace anchor for the Pirates, expected to throw 200+innings. While Yamamoto’s splitter is elite, Skene’s splitter is statistically the hardest pitch to hit in baseball right now. In 2025, hitters batted just .142 against it.
Webb is likely to lead innings, and Yamamoto is likely to lead in wins with a juiced Dodgers roster. The good thing about the Cy Young Awards is that it’s an award for the most dominant arm. If Skenes maintains a sub-2.75 ERA, leads the league in strikeouts, and brings this Pirates franchise a playoff appearance, it’s safe to say the repeat is bound to happen.
4. JJ Wetherholt wins NL Rookie of the Year
There are plenty of prospects ready to emerge and lined up to make an impact in the majors this year, but there are two prospects that stick out as favorites in the National League. JJ Wetherholt of the St. Louis Cardinals was the original favorite for ROTY, but since Spring Training, Konnor Griffin has stolen the spotlight. I prefer Wetherholt’s position over Griffin’s for the ROTY Award. Wetherholt is projected to start at second base for the Cardinals, and the Pirates are still at a “toss-up” when it comes to activating Griffin to the MLB roster. I believe Wetherholt, having a full season and locked-in playing time rolling into Opening Day, sets him up for success in the majors and gives him an advantage for the award. His Spring Training slashline consists of .263/.500/.579 through his first 10 games, one hit being a homer he launched against Mets closer Devin Williams, crushing a 89.1 MPH cutter out of the park.
After a dominant 2025 campaign where he slashed .306/.421/.510 across Double-A and Triple-A. Just for a little metric breakdown, according to Prospect Savant and Baseball America, he posted a 14.5% walk rate and a 14.7% strikeout rate in 2025, which is nearly a 1:1 ratio. He also posted a 90th-percentile exit velocity of 105.3 MPH, paired with a 54.9% hard-hit rate during his pro debut. His Isolated Power jumped from .166 in Double-A to .248 in Triple-A, which is a pleasant progression. Busch Stadium is known to be difficult for right-handed power, but it can favor lefties who use the gap. Wetherholt’s 42.8% pull rate is great as well and plays to his skill set. What separates an elite middle infielder from the rest of the pack isn’t just a steady glove; it’s the rare ability to impact the game in two ways: the power to clear the fences and the swag to swipe bags. I think Wetherholt has 20-20 potential.
5. Junior Caminero will be the No. 1 fantasy third baseman
Oh Junior… I can’t wait to crown you as the next king of the hot corner. Junior Caminero is no longer just a prospect; he’s a statistical anomaly waiting to claim his throne as the most productive fantasy third baseman in 2026. The third-base landscape is littered with aging stars like Manny Machado, Jose Ramirez, and Alex Bregman. Caminero offers a profile with an unmatched raw ceiling. He finished with a juicy 45-homer total in 2025, the 2nd-most in Tampa Bay franchise history. His swing produces elite bat speed, ranking in the 100th percentile, with a max exit velocity of 114.1 MPH. He pairs that with a 14.0% barrel rate, which puts him in the top 10% of the league, and, if that’s not enough, more than half of his batted balls are over 95 MPH, a consistent 51.4%. Not only does his bat pose a constant threat of damage, but he also knows how to use it! Typically, the biggest flaw in these young prospects’ games that holds them back from progressing to the next level is the swing-and-miss, but Caminero has stabilized his approach, posting a 19.1% strikeout rate. With 40+ HR potential, that’s pretty high discipline compared to the league average of power hitting around 25-30%.
6. Eury Perez is a top-20 starter
When drafting your fantasy baseball squad this year, there is a diamond in the rough that you can get your hands on as late as the 8th round. He is a quintessential post-hype breakout candidate who could easily anchor your rotation at the cost of your SP3 or SP4. He goes by the name Eury Perez, and he’s here to show why his underlying metrics tell a story of sheer dominance hidden by bad luck. Perez returned from Tommy John surgery last June and immediately reminded the league why he’s here to stay. Sporting a fastball with average speed in the 94th percentile and a devastating 27.3% strikeout rate, may have you pondering what caused the high ERA of 4.25. It was largely a product of a flukey 64% strand rate and some rust to shake off from missed time. His 3.23 xERA and 1.05 WHIP prove he is actually one of the most difficult pitchers in baseball to hit.
7. Bryan Woo wins AL Cy Young
While we’re on the topic of elite pitching, I think Bryan Woo has the opportunity to claim his first AL Cy Young. Woo is no longer a sleeper, but a titan amongst other starters with legitimate chances to win the 2026 Cy Young. I currently have Woo as my 4th-ranked SP overall, given how impressive his WHIP and walk rate were in 2025. In his campaign, he posted 186.2 innings, a 2.94 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 4.9% walk rate, all of which scream pinpoint command and elite control. He led the Major Leagues with 27 starts of 6+ innings. In baseball terms, Woo was absolutely SHOVING.
8. Bo Bichette flops out of fantasy baseball relevance
These are the takes I don’t enjoy writing, but somebody has to do it. One of the most questionable transactions of the offseason involved Bo Bichette going to the Subway City Mets. Bichette rebounded his AVG to a .311 last season, but regressed his home run total to only 18. His lowest in a full-length season, and his stolen base numbers cratered from 25 in 2021 to a mere 4 in 2025. The once five-category stud transitions to a two-category specialist (AVG and RBI), finds himself in a sticky playing time situation as well. Bichette moves to third base, a position he has never played professionally. This could easily cause issues with offensive production as he learns the hot corner, as he’ll never compete at shortstop with Francisco Lindor. His arm strength ranks in the bottom tier among third basemen, and Statcast data from 2025 showed his range was in the 1st percentile. The combination of deflating offensive stats, insecure defensive positioning, and his new situation in New York makes me fear what Bo Bichette’s fantasy value may be.
Early data from Spring Training shows a sluggish .222 average and zero home runs through his first 27 ABs, suggesting a scary start to his Mets tenure. With the Met’s deepening their middle infield with trade acquisitions Jorge Polanco and Marcus Semien, Bichette’s margin for error is slim. If the defense becomes a liability, the Mets may be forced to use him as a DH more than planned. This would deplete his fantasy value, as he would lose positional flexibility and move +2 positional adjustment (3B) rather than the +7 he enjoyed at shortstop. This could be the ultimate drop in overall WAR and a black hole in your fantasy draft.
9. The Minnesota Twins lose 100+ games
Losing 100 games in the MLB is a massive collapse for any franchise. The 2025 Colorado Rockies were a prime candidate, and so are the 2026 Minnesota Twins. They are facing the perfect storm of catastrophic injuries and regression nightmare rolling into 2026.
The primary catalyst for a 100-loss season is the disappearing act the Minnesota rotation is performing. A fatal blow to the pitching staff by losing ace Pablo López for the 2026 season due to a UCL tear. Without Lopez, the Twins are forced to rely on a rotation filled with unproven talent like Mick Abel and Simeon Woods Richardson. Outside of the fantasy baseball factors, they face a drastic payroll reduction, plummeting to 28th in MLB luxury tax allocations ($104M). Cutting costs rather than replacing veterans or injured stars, the front office has left the roster with zero depth to survive the inevitable: an injury-prone Byron Buxton and an unproven Royce Lewis.
The environment in the AL Central has recently shifted in competition, not in their favor. The Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, and Cleveland Guardians have emerged as legitimate ball clubs to take the pennant. To make this clearer with some scary underlying statistics: in 2025, not one of the top eight Twins starters posted a ground-ball rate above 38.5%. This means the ball was constantly in the air for the Twins’ defense, which is a scary place to be. The Twins ranked 23rd in starter ERA last season. As I mentioned a few members of their rotation earlier, Zebby Matthews anchors the staff with a 5.56 ERA in 2025. If the pitching wasn’t scary enough, Brooks Lee has been tasked with replacing Carlos Correa at shortstop, and slashed just .236/.285/.370, yikes. While the franchise hangs on to the star power of Byron Buxton, he has spent time on the IL in each of the last nine seasons. So it’s safe to say he’ll miss 30-60 days a season. Even with Buxton, the Twins finished 2025 ranked 22nd in batting average (.238) and 21st in OBP (.310). With no significant free-agent additions, who is to say this team won’t finish incredibly below average? Spring Training data confirms fears, sitting at a .222 winning percentage and -32 run differential. The Twins hold on to their highly valued prospects, but Marco Raya posted a 19.29 ERA, and Kenny Rojas sits at a 9.45 ERA, so there isn’t much faith in the farm system carrying this franchise anytime soon. Bottom line, Vegas currently has their under at 73.5 wins, and I predict they bury the under.
10. The Detroit Tigers win the World Series
I see many analysts on my social media timeline backing the Seattle Mariners or the Los Angeles Dodgers as favorites to win the World Series. After an 87-win campaign in 2025 and an ALDS run that pushed the Mariners to the brink, the Detroit Tigers have spent the offseason building a roster that looks like a team of destiny. The Motor City Kitties are my sleeper pick out of the AL Central to swoop in and take the Commissioner’s Trophy. The Tigers did their best to transition from the one-person show that was Tarik Skubal and find him some support in the rotation. The reigning back-to-back Cy Young winner had a historic 2.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and a league-leading 7.30 K/BB ratio. They signed a $115M man, adding ground-ball specialist Framber Valdez, giving the Tigers two of the league’s top lefties in the game. Justin Verlander returns home at the ripe age of 43, looking to eat inning (3.80 ERA), and provide wisdom to the rotation. Casey Mize comes off an All-Star season, hopefully living up to his #1 overall pick potential.
The Tigers finished 2025 with a division-best +67 run differential, and in 2026, they’re projected to fly even higher. Riley Greene mashed 36 HRs and 111 RBIs last year, which was a product of his 17.1% barrel rate. Spencer Torkelson slightly broke out, joining Greene in the 30+ HR club and improving plate discipline with a 11.1% walk rate. Gleyber Torres re-signs, providing a .340+ OBP to boost the top of the order. They find room in the lineup for Colt Keith, moving permanently to the hot corner, boosting a .336 xwOBA that suggests a potential breakout this year.
Projected 2026 Tigers Roster
Photo courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on BlueSky and X)
