Updated:
Mar 20, 2026 , 01:05 PM ET
• 4 min read
Ponnaiya’s prediction: This game should be tight, but there are several reasons why Villanova has the upper hand over the Utah State Aggies.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Villanova Wildcats guard Tyler Perkins (4) controls the ball.
No. 9 seed Utah State takes on No. 8 seed Villanova in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday.
Despite dominating the Mountain West, my Utah State vs. Villanova predictions lean against the Aggies when matched up with a power-conference opponent.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this West Region clash on March 20.
Utah State vs Villanova prediction
Who will win Utah State vs Villanova?
Villanova: The Wildcats are coming off an ugly loss to Georgetown, but that puts their stock at a buy-low point.
They are still 24-8 this season, with six of those defeats coming against ranked teams. In what should be a coin flip game, I’ll take them at plus money.
Utah State vs Villanova best bet: Villanova moneyline (+105)
Over the last five years, Mountain West Conference teams are 10-21 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, and they are just 5-14 ATS when removing San Diego State Aztecs from the equation. Meanwhile, the Big East Conference is 37-21 ATS over that span.
Although the Utah State Aggies excel at forcing turnovers, the Villanova Wildcats take care of the ball. The Wildcats also boast crisp ball movement and multiple outside shooters who can unlock the Aggies’ “fist” zone defense.
Despite the Wildcats having issues in their frontcourt, especially after the injury to Matthew Hodge, Utah State doesn’t have the bigs to take advantage.
COVERS INTEL: Kevin Willard should be very familiar with the matchup-zone defense employed by the Utah State Aggies, as it was invented by his father, Ralph Willard.
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Utah State vs Villanova same-game parlay
The Wildcats are built around their backcourt, and those guards will have to play well for them to win.
Bryce Lindsay has dropped at least two dimes in 22 of 32 games this season. Meanwhile, Tyler Perkins is their best scorer and 3-point shooter. He’ll have success from deep against an Aggies squad that is vulnerable on the perimeter.
Utah State vs Villanova SGP
- Villanova moneyline
- Tyler Perkins Over 16.5 points
- Bryce Lindsay Over 1.5 assists
Our Big Dance SGP: March is for Guards
Utah State is also anchored by premium guard play. Mason Falslev averages 16.1 ppg and does most of his damage inside the arc where he shoots 56.6%. He’ll score against a ‘Nova squad that ranks 281st in opponent 2PT% (54.4%) since the start of January.
His primary set-up man will be Drake Allen who has racked up 5+ assists in four of the last five games.
Utah State vs Villanova SGP
- Tyler Perkins Over 16.5 points
- Bryce Lindsay Over 1.5 assists
- Mason Falslev Over 15.5 points
- Drake Allen Over 4.5 assists
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Utah State vs Villanova odds
- Spread: Utah State -1.5 (-110) | Villanova +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Utah State -125 | Villanova +105
- Over/Under: Over 147 (-110) | Under 147 (-110)
Utah State vs Villanova betting trend to know
The Wildcats have cashed the first-half moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Utah State vs. Villanova.
How to watch Utah State vs Villanova
Location
Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
Date
Friday, March 20, 2026
Tip-off
4:10 p.m. ET
TV
TNT
Utah State vs Villanova key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it’s little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics. He’s also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted “The Chez and Ro Show” with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.
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