The Nevada men’s basketball team plays Liberty on Saturday in the NIT’s first round. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Liberty (26-7) at Nevada (23-12)
When: Saturday, 6 p.m.
Where: Lawlor Events Center (11,536 capacity)
TV/Radio: None/95.5 FM
Online: ESPN+
Betting line: Nevada by 7.5 points; total of 147.5
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. Defensive discipline for 30 seconds: Liberty’s offense has been outstanding. The Flames are third in the nation in two-point shooting (62.3 percent), third in 3-point shooting (39.7 percent) and fifth in turnovers (just 8.8 per game). It’s rare to see a team rank top five in the nation in all three categories, and it adds up to a Liberty offense that’s 41st in the nation in points per possession (Nevada is 97th). Liberty moves the ball really well, with the Flames averaging 17.2 assists on 27.8 made baskets each game (61.9 percent of its makes, compared to Nevada’s 57 percent). Despite having an electric offense, Liberty doesn’t play fast. In fact, the Flames rank 339th out of 365 D-I schools in adjusted tempo. Nevada must defend with discipline for the entire 30-second shot clock to slow down Liberty’s offense.
2. Rebounding dominance: Liberty’s starting five stands 5-foot-9, 5-11, 6-3, 6-5 and 6-7. That’s good size for a high school team. No so much for a D-I school. Liberty has one of the nation’s smallest starting lineups, and it pays for that on the glass. The Flames’ total rebound rate of 44.9 percent is the nation’s 12th worst. Liberty has given up 140 more rebounds than it has grabbed; Nevada is plus-105. This should be a huge edge for the Wolf Pack, which was plus-seven in rebounds in its first-round win over Murray State. The closest rebounding comp for Liberty in the Mountain West is Air Force, which ranks one spot behind the Flames in total rebounding rate. In its three games against the Falcons, Nevada outrebounded Air Force by 13, 19 and 15. This one should be equally lopsided in the backboard.
3. Knock down open threes: Rebounding has not been Liberty’s only issue. Defense has been problematic, too. The Flames rank 259th in defensive efficiency, which bests only San Jose State and Air Force among MW schools. The biggest issue outside of allowing a lot of offensive rebounds has been Liberty’s 3-point defense, which allowed D-I foes to make 38.1 percent from deep, the eighth worst in the nation. Liberty’s opponents have made 42.3 percent of their threes in the Flames’ seven losses. This is a clear weakness the Wolf Pack should be able to expose, although Nevada is shooting just 29.9 percent from three in the last 12 games. There will be open threes to knock down if Nevada can hit them.
Prediction
Nevada 74, Liberty 69: This matchup could look a lot like the Wolf Pack’s first-round game against Murray State, which also had a good offense and bad defense. The Racers play at a much faster pace than Liberty, so expected a lower-scoring game. But Nevada is a clear favorite. Liberty’s 26-7 record is gaudy, but the Flames had a stellar record in close games (10-2) and rank second in KenPom’s “luck” factor. Moreover, Liberty played just three Quad 1 or 2 games out of 31 in the regular season, so it has not been tested like Nevada. Steve Alford’s final game at UCLA came against Liberty, a 25-point loss that got him fired two days later. He should get a measure of redemption in his first meeting against the Flames since then. Season record: 21-13
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
