Updated:
Mar 22, 2026 , 08:15 AM ET
• 4 min read
Hatfield’s prediction: Expect a low-scoring affair in Philly.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Thijs De Ridder of the Virginia Cavaliers.
It’s going to be an ugly one when the Tennessee Volunteers and Virginia Cavaliers meet in the NCAA tournament.
Both teams do a good job of slowing down the main aspects of the other’s offense.
My Tennessee vs. Virginia predictions and March Madness picks break down why we like this one to be a low-scoring battle on Sunday, March 22.
Tennessee vs Virginia prediction
Who will win Tennessee vs Virginia?
Virginia: I lean towards the Virginia Cavaliers, but this is a coinflip spread for a reason.
There are a few thin advantages for both teams, but the Tennessee Volunteers’ rim defense has waned at times throughout a game this season. If something like this occurs in this matchup, then it will be a real problem against UVA.
Tennessee vs Virginia best bet: Under 137.5 (-116)
Virginia does a good job of essentially stopping all that Tennessee wants to run.
The Vols are a heavy post frequency team, and UVA ranks in the 97th percentile nationally against post-ups. They also slow down some other core tenets of the Tennessee offense, like perimeter cuts.
Meanwhile, on the other side, you don’t have to worry about UVA scoring early buckets against an elite transition defense, and the Vols stopping one of the core tenets of Virginia’s offense right in its tracks, ranking in the top 10% of basketball against attack and kicks. I’d play this to 134.
COVERS INTEL: Tennessee runs pick & pop at 1.2 points per possession, and Virginia’s pick & pop defense sits at the bottom 4th percentile (1.07 PPP allowed)
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Tennessee vs Virginia same-game parlay
Thijs De Ridder leads Virginia in scoring, and he’s the one offensive weapon who can produce in this kind of defensive slugfest.
His rim attack volume and ability to get to the line (44.6% FTR) mean he scores even when the half-court offense stalls.
Tennessee vs Virginia SGP
- Virginia moneyline
- Thijs De Ridder Over 12.5 points
Our Big Dance SGP: Guards Grabbing Boards!
I took two guards to exceed their rebound totals for Big Dance SGP. Neither team has any problem sending multiple players to the glass offensively, and in a game that should see many misses, this feels like a nice fit.
Both Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Dallin Hall have exceeded these rebound totals in two straight games, and we expect them to make it three.
Tennessee vs Virginia SGP
- Virginia moneyline
- Thijs De Ridder Over 12.5 points
- Ja’Kobi Gillespie Over 2.5 rebounds
- Dallin Hall Over 2.5 rebounds
Tennessee vs Virginia odds
- Spread: Tennessee -1 (-110) | Virginia +1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Tennessee -122 | Virginia -110
- Over/Under: Over 137.5 (-110) | Under 137.5 (-110)
Tennessee vs Virginia betting trend to know
Tennessee has hit the 1H game total Under in 18 of its last 25 games (+9.80 Units / 34% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Tennessee vs. Virginia.
How to watch Tennessee vs Virginia
Location
Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA
Date
Sunday, March 22, 2026
Tip-off
6:10 p.m. ET
TV
TNT
Tennessee vs Virginia key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Pages related to this topic
Chris has always had a passion for three things: solving problems, sports, and writing. It’s no wonder then that he found himself attracted to the sports betting industry. You can find Chris betting every day. Whether it’s shot prop markets in Champions League Soccer qualifiers or NBA Summer League, he has no offseason. As an EV+ bettor, he especially values the insight gained through a data-driven approach.
His work has been featured on various websites such as SBNation, Rivals, Bleacher Report, and 247Sports. He has appeared on radio outlets such as ESPN 680 and The Sharp 600 podcast. You can listen to his own podcast, “What High School Did You Go To?” on Apple Podcast and Soundcloud.
Chris has carved out a niche as a college basketball originator with massive profitability success in that sport and stresses one piece of advice to sports bettors: exploit edges as broadly as possible and take advantage of them while they last. His preferred sportsbook is bet365 because of the range of markets you can find.
Read More
