“From now on,
These eyes will not be blinded by the lights.
From now on,
What’s waited ’til tomorrow starts tonight.
It starts tonight.”
—”The Greatest Showman”
Let’s start with the obvious: A good start to a baseball season is always preferable but seldom necessary. Just look at the New York Mets’ past two seasons: They were bad for the first two months of 2024 and advanced to the National League Championship Series. They were good for the first two months of 2025 and didn’t make the postseason.
The 2026 Mets, however, are not your typical team. They are coming off an atypically disappointing regular season — yes, even for them. They just went through an atypically transformative offseason, both on the coaching staff and on the 40-man roster. And there is an atypical amount of pressure here, on a manager in the last guaranteed year of his contract and on a roster of newbies.
And so, it is as imperative for the 2026 Mets to get off to a good start — let’s say over the first six weeks of the season — as any Mets team I can remember.
Here’s why:
A good start cleanses the vibes from last season’s finish
Sure, a good deal of this roster wasn’t here for the final few months of the 2025 season and bears no responsibility for the Mets missing the postseason. But enough key people are back — including the front office, the manager and the two best players — that the easiest way to move on from 2025 is to start winning and winning quickly.
It reduces the pressure on new acquisitions
You may have heard that it can be tough to play in New York. Almost every big-name acquisition hears boos eventually; often, it’s in the first month or two. (Just ask Francisco Lindor.)
A new Met’s first month defines the narrative around him for far longer than it should. (It took Lindor four years to overcome two really poor months in 2021.) Good starts individually for the likes of Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams, Jorge Polanco, Marcus Semien and Luis Robert Jr. would be really nice. But a good collective start by the team eliminates the need to pick on whoever’s struggling the most.
It reduces the pressure on Carlos Mendoza
Mendoza is entering the final guaranteed year of his contract, which contains a club option for 2027 that has not yet been exercised. A lot of teams exercise that option or extend the manager before a lame-duck season, as the Phillies and Cardinals have done since the end of last year. The Mets have not done that. That magnifies the focus on Mendoza, whose magical first year was washed away by a difficult second one.
Again, a strong start postpones any conversation about the manager’s job security.
The schedule is easy early
Say you’re the type of person rolling your eyes at this narrative nonsense, dismissive of the idea that the Mets need the fan base to feel a certain way about them to succeed.
Well, then, the reason the Mets need to get off to a good start is that the schedule largely demands it.
Six teams lost 90 or more games last season. The Mets play 18 games against them in the first 40 games of the season; they play 16 against them in the final 122.
Eight teams have over/under win totals below 77 (according to BetMGM). The Mets play 22 of their first 40 games (and 32 of their first 59) against those teams, including 15 in a row at one point. They play 19 games against them in the final 103 games.
Only six of the Mets’ first 40 games are against teams that finished last season above .500. So aside from the second road trip of the season, through Chavez Ravine and Wrigleyville, the Mets should be stacking series wins on top of one another against the likes of the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Twins, Rockies, Nationals and Angels. And if they don’t, well, there aren’t many get-right series, let alone homestands, the rest of the way.
It places pressure on NL East rivals that aren’t as healthy
Zack Wheeler isn’t part of the Opening Day rotation for Philadelphia. Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep are out half the season for Atlanta. If you want to include Miami in that group, it will be without Kyle Stowers to start the season. (If you want to include Washington, I implore you not to test that hunch financially.)
The Mets have an opportunity, with that easy early schedule, to create some early distance between themselves and their chief rivals in the NL East.
The pitching possibles
versus Pittsburgh
RHP Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.70 ERA in 2025) v. RHP Paul Skenes (10-10, 1.97 ERA in 2025)
LHP David Peterson (9-6, 4.22) v. RHP Mitch Keller (6-15, 4.19)
RHP Nolan McLean (5-1, 2.06) v. RHP Bubba Chandler (4-1, 4.02)
I looked up a stat
I used those over/under win totals to simulate the strength of schedule throughout the season for the Mets. The average projected winning percentage of their opponents for the first 40 games is .463 — a 75-87 mark over 162 games. The flip side is the 35-game stretch the Mets have to play from June 18 to July 29, against an average projected winning percentage of .550 — or an 89-73 record over 162.
Injury updates
- Mike Tauchman suffered a torn meniscus in his left knee over the weekend and will require surgery. It’s a major blow for Tauchman, who appeared in line to make the Opening Day roster and who missed the end of last season because of a torn meniscus in his right knee.
- Francisco Lindor appears all set for Opening Day.
Minor-league schedule
Triple-A: Syracuse at Worcester (Boston), Friday through Sunday
A note on the epigraph
I’ve never seen “The Greatest Showman,” but I have become very familiar with its soundtrack exclusively via viral performances on singing contests.
Trivia time
Twofer for Opening Day:
- Paul Skenes is the reigning Cy Young winner in the National League. When is the last time the Mets opened the season against a reigning Cy Young winner?
- Who is the last pitcher to start Opening Day against the Mets and then go on to win that season’s Cy Young?
One was a lot more recent than the other.
(I’ll reply to the correct answer in the comments.)
