NHL awards watch: Nikita Kucherov, Zach Werenski make strong push against Avalanche’s top duo
Throughout the season, I’ll be breaking down the numbers behind the race for each major player award: the Hart, the Norris, the Calder, the Selke, the Vezina, the Art Ross and the Rocket Richard. Numbers, of course, aren’t everything, but they add much-needed context to the awards race and can help shine a light on players deserving of more recognition while adding caveats to other players that may have some warts. This post will present the top 10 for each category based on a set criteria of guidelines. There is plenty of room for discussion and debate within (and outside) those guidelines.
Welcome to the fourth edition of this year’s NHL Awards watch. With roughly 10 to 12 games to go, a lot of races look like they’ll be headed down to the wire and it’s worth checking in on things before one final update near the end of the season.
While the Calder and Selke look like safe races, the Hart and Norris continue to look spicy, where it’s become difficult to argue that either has a clear frontrunner.
Everything can still change over the final stretch, but for now, we’ve got a lot of interesting things to watch across the board. Based on my interpretation of the numbers, here’s how each of the key races currently shakes out.
Data as of March 22
Hart Trophy
Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.
Criteria: The best players on each team, ranked by Net Rating percentile relative to position.
With each passing game with yet another ludicrous stat line, Nikita Kucherov inches closer and closer to the top of the Net Rating leaderboard. Last week, he passed Connor McDavid, and on a per-82 basis, he’s now neck-and-neck with Nathan MacKinnon. With respect to the best player in the world who has not been as other-worldly at five-on-five this season as his competition, he’s probably the clear third choice. This is now shaping up to be a two-horse race.
The case for Nikita Kucherov
Tampa Bay Lightning fans have long lamented Kucherov’s placement within the Hart Trophy race, according to Net Rating. Despite winning back-to-back Art Ross trophies, Kucherov wasn’t the frontrunner in either season. My consistent position is that the Hart Trophy is not a trophy for production; that already exists and Kucherov won that award each year. That was the story of his season, and while there is often overlap between the two awards, it should be important to keep each award distinct.
Points are important, but they are not the total embodiment of a player’s value. That should be obvious by the fact that I have Moritz Seider on this list (among other defenders), and it’s not a slight against Kucherov alone. It’s been a constant practice here, going back to Leon Draisaitl’s Hart win despite a shoddy defensive effort that season. There’s more to hockey than putting up points, and that’s usually been the argument against Kucherov, whose offense always put him close enough, but not at the top.
In prior seasons, it was Kucherov’s weaker defensive game or lesser ability to drive play at five-on-five compared to MacKinnon or McDavid in those seasons. Any gap in production was made up elsewhere, but that is not the case this season. While Kucherov’s defense is not at the same level as MacKinnon’s, his offensive game has become so transcendent that it’s made up for the difference.
The difference in what Kucherov has done at five-on-five over the last three seasons is telling, where Kucherov is putting up close to career-best numbers at five-on-five.
2023-24
xG: 52.6%
Goals: 51.6%
2024-25
xG: 54.3%
Goals: 63.0%
2025-26
xG: 57.7%
Goals: 66.4%
Offensively, Kucherov’s xGF/60 is up from 3.1 to 3.8 while his GF/60 is up from 3.9 to 5.0. That last mark could be only the first time a player has been on the ice for over five goals-per-60 at five-on-five over a full season (Sidney Crosby was at 5.16 in 2012-13, a year where he was absolutely robbed of the Hart, by the way).
All of that has led to him lapping the field in points with 118 in 64 games, 99 of which have come over the last 46 games, where the only past comparable for him is either Wayne Gretzky or Mario Lemieux. It’s special stuff that is in many ways a clear leap from Kucherov’s last two seasons
The case for Nathan MacKinnon
The main argument for MacKinnon, the front-runner all season, is a more complete game at five-on-five that manifests on the scoreboard. MacKinnon’s point rate is slightly behind Kucherov’s, but he’s outscoring opposing teams 87-31 at five-on-five, two goals shy of Johnny Gaudreau’s plus-58 in 2021-22.
There will be those who bemoan that MacKinnon’s goal impact is doing a lot of the heavy lifting here over his expected goal impact (plus-17.4, third among forwards). While it’s important to be careful with on-ice goal data, I don’t believe it’s worth ignoring completely, especially when telling the story of MacKinnon’s season.
It may regress in the future, but it’s still something he was a part of this year, where he has been the primary driver of the Colorado Avalanche’s incredible might at five-on-five. The Avalanche are plus-77 at five-on-five this season, eight goals back of the 2022-23 Boston Bruins for most in the analytics era, and that’s largely thanks to MacKinnon. Within the context of the model, the balance between his expected and actual goal differential comes out to plus-27.4, a bit ahead of Kucherov’s plus-25.7 but with a more defensive slant.
That’s while playing the toughest minutes on Colorado, something Kucherov is comparatively shielded from with the Lightning, thanks to their shutdown line led by Selke hopeful Yanni Gourde. When the pace ramps up against tough competition at the top of the lineup, being able to tilt the score with that much dominance is a massive deal and something always worth considering.
On top of that, the hierarchy of production is also in MacKinnon’s favor, where having five more goals than Kucherov, who has seven more secondary assists, does matter to an extent.
Both have been phenomenal this season, and while my current lean is toward Kucherov, it should be a tight race down to the very finish. McDavid making things interesting without Draisaitl is still on the table, too.
After a very clear top three, there’s a bit of a drop-off. This has been a terrific season for defensemen leading their team, and I would love to see some of the best occupy more ballots this year. Lane Hutson, Seider, Zach Werenski, Rasmus Dahlin and Quinn Hughes all deserve it. Logan Thompson between the pipes is a worthy choice, though some may disqualify him for not being on a playoff team.
Among forwards, there really is a massive gap between McDavid in third and then the rest. Jason Robertson is next at plus-17.6 and has been great, but he hasn’t generated much buzz. Macklin Celebrini is a more obvious choice given what he’s done relative to his teammates this year; a plus-16.0 Net Rating with the next best San Jose Shark at plus-3.7. That’s worthy enough to get some attention and will be an easy sell for the “most valuable to his team” people.
Personally, I’ve always believed the most valuable meant the most value added. That makes the significant gap between him and McDavid in third a bit tough to overlook for consideration within the top three, though he’ll definitely be an option for the fourth or fifth slots.
Norris Trophy
Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-around ability in the position.
Criteria: Defensemen ranked by Net Rating.
This is, without question, the best Norris trophy race in recent memory. There have never been this many elite defensemen dominating to this degree all at once, and it signals a real leaguewide shift at the position. Of these 10, eight have a legitimate case to be made (apologies to the injured Jake Sanderson and the still hard-to-believe Darren Raddysh).
Cale Makar has been the front-runner all season, and the best way I can describe his case is that he’s the jack-of-all-trades option. He’s not the most productive (Evan Bouchard), he’s not the best individual driver (Werenski), he’s not the best defensively (Seider) and he’s not the best if you ignore the Vancouver Canucks’ existence (Hughes). But he is perhaps the best combination of every facet, with a higher Defensive Rating than the other offensive standouts, and a higher Offensive Rating than the shutdown types. Dahlin is a terrific choice in a similar facet, and you can surprisingly make the same argument for Hutson, even if he doesn’t play a matchup role like the rest of the list.
The primary argument against Makar is how much his numbers are influenced by playing with MacKinnon. While I account for that to a decent extent, there is enough to give some pause with such a strong field — though Makar’s drop in xG without MacKinnon has been more muted this season (56 percent without compared to 50 percent last year). I don’t want to ignore what he does with MacKinnon or give MacKinnon 100 percent of the credit for that, nor do I want to ignore the context of why that happens (MacKinnon changing early, Makar taking on tough minutes in a more defensive posture). But it is something worth considering. To his biggest detractors, suggesting he’s just a MacKinnon merchant, though, his microstats clearly show just how involved Makar is with and without the puck. Entries, exits, retrievals, scoring chance contributions — Makar is elite in every facet. He’s a major reason the Avalanche are such a powerhouse and is still probably the best all-around option.
But if it ends up being really close between him and Werenski, it’s extremely hard to ignore how good Werenski is as the primary driver on the Columbus Blue Jackets. Werenski’s defensive game is a little weaker, but offensively, he’s done so much as the focal point. The raw Net Rating also doesn’t reflect that Werenski has been a shade better per-game with a Net Rating per 82 of plus-25.5 (Makar is at plus-25.2). A few games missed shouldn’t be the deciding factor between the two, an argument that’s been in Makar’s favor a few times during his career. At the moment, I would lean toward Werenski as my top choice for that reason.
On the defensive-driver front, the group of eligible players has never been better, though it’s a shame Sanderson had to get injured. Miro Heiskanen is putting up a tremendous two-way season, but it’s Seider who continues to be the standout. It may be really difficult for voters to overlook the lesser scoring, but what Seider has done at both ends of the ice in difficult minutes has been just as impactful. He’s been Detroit’s best player all season, and the gap between what the Red Wings have been with and without him is of an exceptional magnitude. Few defenseman have ever posted a plus-10 Defensive Rating, and none have ever added a plus-10 Offensive Rating on top of it. Seider is one of one in that regard, and that deserves recognition. If there was ever a time for voters to prove that the Norris isn’t just the defenseman Art Ross and to vote for a true two-way workhorse with an immense defensive impact, that time is now.
Lastly, there are the offensive drivers. Bouchard’s production is obviously off-the-charts good, even within the context of playing with McDavid. He leads all defenders in Offensive Rating and is on pace to clear 90 points. But the defensive issues are a lot more real this season, where he’s the only defenseman with a negative Defensive Rating in the top 10. This year, he’s been on the ice for 0.54 more xGA/60 compared to last season. In terms of pure offense, Hughes is probably the better choice, especially depending on how much one ignores his tenure in Vancouver. Since arriving in Minnesota, he has a plus-14.3 Net rating over 39 games — a plus-30 pace. That’s frontrunner material.
All of that makes the Norris feel like a uniquely impossible decision this year, where the bar has been raised considerably. No matter which five make the ballot, some really amazing seasons are going to be left off.
Selke Trophy
Given to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.
Criteria: Forwards who play over 16 minutes per game, receive 15 percent of their team’s short-handed minutes and face top-line forward competition, ranked by their Defensive Rating.
Nick Suzuki remains the Selke favorite as he continues to excel at both ends of the ice this season. Suzuki plays the toughest matchups, takes on a heavy load and churns out elite defensive results anyway. With him on the ice, the Montreal Canadiens allow 0.19 fewer expected goals and 0.35 fewer actual goals per 60.
There are also not a lot of go-to candidates threatening him. Sam Reinhart has been great, but not his usual self without his Batman. Nico Hischier, a popular preseason pick, has struggled to limit chances. Auston Matthews has been saddled by a poor system and Max Domi. Mitch Marner is close but doesn’t fit the criteria as well as Jack Eichel, whose results are only strong within the context of his minutes and not in spite of them like Suzuki’s. And there are no usual Carolina Hurricanes either.
Then there’s Gourde, who is taking on Anthony Cirelli’s usual role as the matchup center with fantastic results, but with nowhere near the same fanfare. Gourde should be firmly in the mix, but there’s a chance that his vote is cannibalized by Cirelli, who is playing easier minutes and has still been on for 0.86 (!!!) more expected goals against per 60.
Perhaps there’s some love for the Ottawa Senators’ shutdown line, as both Michael Amadio and Shane Pinto have been excellent at asserting Ottawa’s defensive identity this season. Noah Cates has been a defensive star for the Philadelphia Flyers, and Charlie Coyle remains in the mix. Maybe even someone from the Avalanche, whether that’s MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen, Brock Nelson, or even Jack Drury in the bottom six.
But without many household names really challenging Suzuki, a trophy often awarded with reputation in mind, will surely be his to lose.
Other candidates who didn’t match the criteria
Doesn’t play enough
Mathieu Olivier: +3.8 Defensive Rating (14.4 minutes per game)
Doesn’t kill penalties
Nathan MacKinnon: +4.5 Defensive Rating (0 PK minutes per game)
Doesn’t get matchups
Mitch Marner: +3.6 Defensive Rating (72% usage)
Calder Trophy
Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL.
Criteria: Rookie skaters ranked by Net Rating percentile relative to position.
The Calder is still Matthew Schaefer’s to lose, and he’s put an exclamation point on the whole thing since the Olympic break.
Schaefer has been a point-per-game defender while boasting a near 60 percent xG rate in tough minutes. That’s created a substantial eight-goal gap between him and the next most valuable rookie. This race isn’t even close. For even further context, Schaefer is on pace for a plus-13.8 Net Rating season, which trails only Makar’s plus-15.7 from his rookie season among defensemen. Given the three-year age difference, Schaefer has a case for the most impressive rookie defenseman season in the salary cap era (and maybe ever).
Filling out the ballot behind Schaefer (who should be unanimous, he’s been that good) is a little trickier. Ivan Demidov and Beckett Sennecke are the obvious choices given their scoring, but defensive question marks do lessen their value slightly. Alexander Nikishin pulls out slightly ahead for his ability to drive play with the Hurricanes, but doing that in a sheltered role on that specific team definitely warrants some skepticism. Justin Sourdif won’t be a sexy pick, but his defensive acumen as a rookie looks legit. Add the two rookie goalies, and it becomes a tough list to whittle down.
Vezina Trophy
Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position.
Criteria: Goaltenders who have played half of their team’s games or more, ranked by goals saved above expected courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockey Stats and MoneyPuck.
It probably won’t be Thompson, but it should be Thompson who has pulled ahead of Ilya Sorokin considerably since the Olympic break. His 11.2 GSAx since returning is third in the league, while Sorokin has slowed to just average, giving Thompson a five-goal cushion over second place.
For the season, Thompson leads the league in GSAx via all three xG sources, and by that rubric has been the league’s best goalie. Yes, the Washington Capitals are unlikely to make the playoffs, but it’s starting to look like the New York Islanders won’t either. That’s far from either goalie’s fault, considering how superb they’ve been at stopping pucks despite the high danger allowed. Both Thompson and Sorokin have the lowest expected save percentage here, but it’s Thompson’s actual save percentage of .915 that edges out Sorokin’s .911.
The lack of playoffs may shift some consideration toward Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jeremy Swayman instead. While Vasilevskiy deserves to be on ballots, it may be for the wrong reasons (wins), with Tampa Bay’s defense making things a lot easier for him compared to his contemporaries. That’s true of Thompson and Sorokin, but also of Swayman, whose .907 trails Vasilevskiy’s .911, but is more impressive behind a leakier Bruins group.
The big surprise on this list has to be Alex Lyon, who has been a major story for the Buffalo Sabres during their epic streak. Since Dec. 9 in particular, Lyon has a league-leading .925 and has saved 16.1 goals above expected in just 19 games.
Art Ross Trophy
Given to the player who leads the National Hockey League in scoring points at the end of the regular season.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season point total.
Kucherov’s Gretzkian run over the last 45 or so games has put him in the driver’s seat for his third straight Art Ross trophy. Considering his competition during that time, that’s an incredibly impressive feat. Kucherov is currently two points up on McDavid, but has three team games in hand and should be able to maintain his current lead — especially with Draisaitl out for the regular season.
Rocket Richard Trophy
Given to the NHL’s top goal scorer.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season goal total.
Cole Caufield has made the race a little spicier after the Olympic break, especially after a Saturday night hat trick that pulled him within two of MacKinnon. That has him flirting with his first 50-goal season, though MacKinnon is still projected to hold on to this one.
Data via Evolving Hockey, Hockey Stats, Hockey Stat Cards, Natural Stat Trick and NHL
