Every week, we ask a selected group of our baseball writers — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results.
Much like in 2025, we begin this year’s preseason edition of our power rankings with the Los Angeles Dodgers as reigning champions and sitting atop our list. But there are plenty of differences this year, too. The Seattle Mariners and Chicago Cubs began last year’s rankings in the middle of the pack and the Toronto Blue Jays found themselves near the bottom third of the list. Now all three teams are sitting pretty inside our top eight spots heading into the regular season. Much will change between now and October, and these rankings will surely fluctuate in ways we cannot predict, but everybody’s got to start somewhere. Welcome to the 2026 MLB season!
All playoff odds provided by FanGraphs.
Playoff odds: 98.8 percent
What, you expected another team in this spot? The Dodgers are the defending champions. They still have Shohei Ohtani, who will be a full-time two-way player this season for the first time since 2023. They still have Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. They still have such an absurd amount of pitching depth that the organization doesn’t appear particularly concerned that Blake Snell is bound for the injured list again. And they still have more money at their disposal than any team not owned by Steve Cohen — and the ability to convince players to join them rather than the team owned by Steve Cohen, as they did this winter by signing closer Edwin Díaz and outfielder Kyle Tucker. — Andy McCullough
Playoff odds: 70.2 percent
So many blurbs this time of year tout upside: If XYZ goes right, this team could win a pennant, etc. In a tightly packed American League, the Yankees feel like more of a high-floor team. They have the superstar in Aaron Judge, competent bats around him in the lineup and the chance to field a better defense this season than last. The upside that exists here is mostly health-related in a rotation that will still miss Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón early in the season, and is counting on Cam Schlittler and Ryan Weathers to help in the meantime. — Tim Britton
Playoff odds: 80.8 percent
Jerry Dipoto kept it simple this winter as he charted how to follow up the most successful season in Mariners’ franchise history. Seattle quickly re-signed first baseman Josh Naylor to a five-year, $92.5 million contract. Months later, Dipoto won the bidding for St. Louis utility man Brendan Donovan, who figures to aid the team all around the diamond. The starting rotation is still intact for a team that finished eight outs away from the American League pennant. All is well — especially now that Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena have squashed their beef after the handshake imbroglio at the World Baseball Classic. Phew! — McCullough
Playoff odds: 62.2 percent
Chicago had as close to a “Plan A” offseason as you can get. Pursue a superstar free agent and sign them to a multi-year deal? Check. Trade prospect depth to land a starter with top-of-the-rotation potential and multiple years of club control? Check. Reconfigure the bullpen so that manager Craig Counsell has multiple “out-getters” to deploy behind closer Daniel Palencia? Also check. Those developments, plus a multiyear extension for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, have given the Cubs a level of promise and security it has not had in some time. A season after an NLDS appearance, the Cubs appear primed for their first consecutive postseason berths since 2015-18. — Johnny Flores Jr.
Playoff odds: 80.0 percent
Much like their 2025 regular season, the Mets’ offseason trended in one direction for a while before shifting abruptly and ending up in a totally different place by the end. New York dismissed a chunk of its core by the end of the Winter Meetings, then waited more than a month to really replace it. But the group here now probably has a higher ceiling and a better chance of winning the division and ultimately challenging the Dodgers. It also has a better chance of getting hurt and falling below .500, but that’s always on the table in Queens. — Britton
Playoff odds: 72.8 percent
A roster of near-unprecedented continuity returns: The Phillies re-signed Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto and extended Jesus Lúzardo and Cristopher Sánchez. On the one hand, every major-league team is hunting for the sustainable success the Phillies have experienced the last half-decade: Give a club enough bites at the October apple, and eventually it goes your way — oftentimes when it’s not your best overall roster. On the other hand, the Phillies as an organization and Dave Dombrowski as a president of baseball operations have seen what happens when chasing a championship too long with the same group. This may be the most urgent roster in baseball in 2026. — Britton
Playoff odds: 59.6 percent
This time last year, the Blue Jays sat 18th in these rankings with odds about half as good. The blurb wondered whether adding Anthony Santander was the “jolt” the Jays needed. You never know how anything’s going to go. Toronto enters this season in better position. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is, in fact, here to stay, and last season’s postseason run made the city a better landing spot for free agents in the winter. There’s a lot of positive momentum, albeit in a rugged division. — Britton
Playoff odds: 60.0 percent
There’s no doubting that the Red Sox have a lot of good players; it’s worth wondering whether they can all be on the field at the same time. Boston is flush with outfielders and starting pitchers; the latter is where it leaned in this winter in acquiring Ranger Suárez, Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo to go along with one of the deeper groups of near-ready prospects in the sport. The infield, though, sure misses that one extra bat, and the bottom half of the lineup will pivot on whether strong offensive stretches by the likes of Caleb Durbin, Ceddanne Rafaela and Carlos Narváez can be replicated in 2026. — Britton
Playoff odds: 79.0 percent
No team has had a worse spring training than Atlanta, which has seen starting pitchers Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep and Spencer Strider all hit the IL and outfielder Jurickson Profar suspended for the season. (And that doesn’t include Ha-Seong Kim’s injury before spring training started.) Put all that together, and these odds feel high for a team coming off a disappointing season and already seeing its pitching depth seriously strained. — Britton
Playoff odds: 37.4 percent
Yes, the Brewers traded ace Freddy Peralta to the New York Mets. And yes, the club did trade away last year’s third- and fourth-place finishers in NL Rookie of the Year balloting (Caleb Durbin and Isaac Collins). Yet, would it be all that surprising to see Milwaukee win the NL Central or grabbing hold of a Wild Card spot? Not in the least. It’s because they’ve made these moves before. The names change, but the results often stay the same. While we’re on the subject of projections, Ángel Zerpa (the return for Isaac Collins and Nick Mears) will pitch to a 2.10 ERA this season, further fortifying the Brewers’ bullpen. Such is how the baseball wheel turns in Milwaukee. — Flores
Playoff odds: 74.0 percent
A 15-inning thriller away from their first ALCS appearance since 2013, the Tigers enter 2026 with one goal: Maximize the final year of Tarik Skubal before the reigning Cy Young Award winner heads to free agency. To do that, they signed Framber Valdez to join him at the top of the rotation, re-signed Gleyber Torres and Kyle Finnegan, reunited with Justin Verlander and added Kenley Jansen and Drew Anderson. Having Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark, two of MLB’s top 10 prospects, in reserve is really just the cherry on top. — Flores
Playoff odds: 52.1 percent
Perhaps no team was humbled more by the 2025 season than the Orioles. Baltimore’s similarly 50/50 odds of the postseason had dipped below two percent by the middle of May, and never got above five percent the rest of the way. So here are Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward to add thump to the middle of the lineup and Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt to add upside and dependability, respectively, to the rotation. In another division, the O’s would feel like a solid bet to rebound and see October. In this one? Yeah, they’re still 50/50. — Britton
Playoff odds: 38.1 percent
It should come as no surprise that the final stretch of the World Baseball Classic was dominated by Royals bats. Bobby Witt Jr. (Team USA), Maikel Garcia and Salvador Perez (Venezuela), Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglianone (Italy) all played significant roles for their respective teams and should carry that offensive prowess into the regular season. For years, Kansas City has been characterized as “Well, if the offense can do its part.” Entering 2026, that’s no longer the case. The club has the makings of a top 10 offense, and with enough pitching, the AL Central should be within reach, if not a Wild Card spot. — Flores
Playoff odds: 35.7 percent
In his second offseason at the helm, Buster Posey avoided expensive, long-term commitments. Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle filled out the rotation. Harrison Bader could provide a spark in center field. Rafael Devers will play his first full season as a Giant; Devers adjusted well to the unfriendly confines of Oracle Park and put up his usual excellent numbers at the plate. On the left side of the infield, Matt Chapman and Willy Adames are ready to gobble up all the grounders induced by Logan Webb. On paper, they should be able to contend for a Wild Card spot. Maybe new manager Tony Vitello will be able to get more out of this group than his predecessor, Bob Melvin. — McCullough
Playoff odds: 34.8 percent
The 2023 season feels like a lifetime ago. Texas swapped Marcus Semien for outfielder Brandon Nimmo this winter and non-tendered catcher Jonah Heim. But the Rangers will still be relying on their injury-prone stars (Corey Seager, Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom) to stay on the field and for their young core (Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter, Jack Leiter) to keep improving. The rest of the industry will be interested to see what Texas can get out of new addition MacKenzie Gore, who fell apart in the second half pitching for Washington last season. — McCullough
Playoff odds: 32.9 percent
For the first time since 2016, the Astros spent last postseason as spectators. Owner Jim Crane refuses to keep the band together but also refuses to rebuild, which leads to an intriguing blend on the roster. Some of the pillars from the golden years are still around: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa. But then there are the new faces: former Seibu Lions star Tatsuya Imai is being asked to fill some of the void created by Framber Valdez’s departure in free agency. There is still plenty of talent within the organization, and if Cam Smith puts it together, the franchise will have another star in its midst. — McCullough
Playoff odds: 22.1 percent
For years, rival executives have painted A.J. Preller and the Padres as Wile E. Coyote chasing the Road Runner: the team may have run off the cliff, flinging around nine-figure contracts and trading away prized prospects, but as long as they don’t look down, they can keep going. Well, don’t expect Preller to look down just yet. The Padres did not make major additions this past winter. Their most expensive contract was a $75 million reunion with pitcher Michael King, which could end up being only a one-year contract. Their pitching depth is a bit shallow. But they still employ Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. Last year’s midseason acquisition of Mason Miller improved an already excellent bullpen. And Preller won’t be shying away from bold moves any time soon. — McCullough
Playoff odds: 29.8 percent
There aren’t many lineups that start out as strongly as Tampa Bay’s, with Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero. There aren’t many lineups that fade out so swiftly either, and the Rays’ chances of climbing back into the postseason will hinge on getting better production from the other two-thirds of their lineup. The return of Shane McClanahan should boost the rotation as well, though it’s a less electric group than the Rays have fielded in the past. — Britton
Playoff odds: 35.0 percent
Since making the World Series in 2023, the simplified story for why Arizona has failed to return to the postseason is that while the offense has been strong, the pitching staff has been a disappointment. It looked like the franchise would reset its rotation heading into 2026, but instead, the club re-signed a pair of free-agent starters, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. They also brought back Paul Sewald, who was the closer during the 2023 postseason run. The team is eagerly awaiting the return of former National League Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes, who missed most of his first season as a Diamondback after undergoing Tommy John surgery. — McCullough
Playoff odds: 47.0 percent
It took several years, but the Pirates have finally done something. The club swung a trade for Brandon Lowe and Jake Mangum, signed Ryan O’Hearn to a two-year deal, added Marcell Ozuna on a one-year deal and fortified the bullpen with Gregory Soto on a one-year deal. Suddenly, the team has an offense behind Paul Skenes and a pitching staff that ranked seventh in MLB last season with a 3.76 ERA. At some point, baseball’s No. 1 prospect Konnor Griffin should debut, giving Pirates fans a lot to look forward to as the team chases its first postseason appearance since 2015. — Flores
Playoff odds: 24.9 percent
The emergence of Nick Kurtz as one of the best hitters in baseball enhanced the excitement surrounding this team’s offense. It is not hard to see how Kurtz, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker and Tyler Soderstrom can hound pitchers in the coming years. Even so, the pitching situation remains worrisome, especially as the Athletics prepare for another season playing in West Sacramento. As construction continues on a new stadium in Las Vegas, the Athletics figure to make plenty of noise this summer. They might not be good enough to make the postseason, but their offense should be dangerous enough to wreck some folks. — McCullough
Playoff odds: 13.2 percent
A 14-11 September record, coupled with a collapse of epic proportions in Queens was enough to propel Cincinnati to the postseason, where it promptly got swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers. Miracles rarely happen twice, and the Reds didn’t do enough in the offseason to signal that their playoff berth wasn’t a fluke. Bringing back fan-favorite Eugenio Suárez is great, but it’s not enough to move the needle, especially not after the 34-year-old posted an OPS of .661 and .700 in the season’s final two months. Hunter Greene being on the IL to open the season has already put Cincinnati on the back foot before Opening Day. — Flores
Playoff odds: 12.8 percent
No longer is it a viable strategy to sleepwalk through the AL Central, allowing other teams’ uncompetitiveness and incompetence to pave the way to a division title. Not at least while the Detroit Tigers boast two of the best pitchers in baseball and the Kansas City Royals have the makings of a top 10 offense. It doesn’t help, then, that Cleveland had a fairly muted offseason, its only significant guaranteed move was a one-year deal for reliever Shawn Armstrong, along with a minor-league signing for Rhys Hoskins. — Flores
Playoff odds: 6.3 percent
Surprise third-place finishers in the NL East last year, the Marlins are trying to take another step forward despite offseason trades of Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers. The rotation remains a strength, headlined by Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez, and the lineup continues to introduce intriguing young hitters. Last year, Kyle Stowers and Agustin Ramírez broke out; this year, Miami is looking to outfielder Owen Caissie (the return from the Cubs for Cabrera) to do the same. Of the half-dozen teams with odds below 10 percent, we like this one the best. — Britton
Playoff odds: 24.0 percent
Given the fire sale at last year’s trade deadline, plus an offseason highlighted by relatively minor additions (Victor Caratini, Josh Bell and Taylor Rogers), as well as a rotation death-blow in the form of season-ending Tommy John surgery for Pablo López, these odds feel rather generous. Put it this way: the Padres, buoyed by superstars and a GM who lives for the deadline deal, have worse odds. For the Twins to make good on things, it’s going to require breakout campaigns from multiple rookies and a bullpen held together by Band-Aids and bubblegum to carry its end of the bargain. — Flores
Playoff odds: 8.7 percent
The Cardinals did what they set out to do over the winter: rebuild. Gone are Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray and Brendan Donovan, and in are a bevy of prospects and players with limited big-league experience. “We are not where we want to be,” president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom told The Athletic’s Tyler Kepner of his offseason calculus. “What’s the quickest way to get there? What’s the best way to get there? That, to me, is clearly trying to build as good of a talent pipeline and as good of a young big league core as we possibly can.” It’s bound to be a brutal season in St. Louis, but there’s at least light on the other side. — Flores
Playoff odds: 4.7 percent
The Angels experienced a nine-game season-over-season improvement in 2025, but still finished with a losing record for the 10th consecutive season. As always under owner Arte Moreno, it is unclear what the franchise is trying to accomplish, other than affordability. The farm system ranked 29th in Keith Law’s latest list. New manager Kurt Suzuki signed a one-year contract, an oddity that pairs his fate with that of general manager Perry Minasian. The highest-profile addition made by the club this winter was a trade for talented but injury-prone pitcher Grayson Rodriguez, who experienced a batch of arm soreness during the final days of spring training. He might begin the season on the injured list. So it goes. — McCullough
Playoff odds: 1.1 percent
The White Sox lost 102 games last year. They’ll probably lose 90-plus in 2026. Unlike last season, though, there’s a lot to watch for, even as the losses pile up. For one, the club signed Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami to a two-year deal just before his posting window expired. How the 26-year-old adjusts to MLB pitching will be fascinating to watch. On the other side, after trading away Luis Robert Jr. to the Mets, Chicago used some of that savings on its pitching staff, including the addition of Seranthony Domínguez on a two-year pact. The core of Chase Meidroth, Kyle Teel, Colson Montgomery and not-switch-hitter Luisangel Acuña should also take another step forward. — Flores
Playoff odds: 0.7 percent
Few things are more depressing in baseball than when a team has to double down on its teardown — though one of them might be a team unwilling to acknowledge it needs to do so. Five years after the Nats threw in the towel and traded Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to Los Angeles, a new front office is digging in again by trading MacKenzie Gore to Texas. The new regime brings modernity and hope, but also an appeal for patience. The next great Nationals team will be built off the Juan Soto trade tree rather than the Juan Soto trade. — Britton
Playoff odds: 0.1 percent
At long last, the Rockies embraced change this winter. After years of kvetching about the unfairness of playing in altitude at Coors Field, the new regime led by Paul DePodesta has begun to talk about turning the conditions into a home-field advantage. Will the team be able to make that transformation in one offseason? Doubtful. They still might be the worst team in baseball in 2026. But even a change in rhetoric is a welcome sight for Rockies fans, who watched the franchise turn into a laughingstock despite consistent support and strong attendance numbers. — McCullough
